As
many of you know, I live in Colorado.
And
living in Colorado puts me in a unique position with my vote.
Colorado
is a swing state having gone for the electoral winner in the last four
elections. It is also a reliable bellwether having gone for the winner in every
election since 1980 except in one instance when it picked Bob Dole in 1996
while Bill Clinton dominated the electoral vote. Still 8 out 9 is a pretty good
track record. Not as impressive as Ohio’s current streak going back to 1964,
but Colorado might become the new electoral bellwether in the 21st century.
So I
have the power to pick the next president…
(laughs
maniacally)
As
shown in 2014 that power extends to the senate, gubernatorial, and other
statewide races. With the senate, it can determine which party controls that
chamber.
And
that is as far as the power of my vote goes.
Without
giving away EXACTLY where I live in Colorado, I can provide a hint.
Congresswoman
I
live in Colorado’s first congressional district (THE FIGHTIN’
FIRST!!!!).
That means that the state legislative districts are also very Democratic as
well. The toughest fights that Representative Diana DeGette, soon-to-be State
Senator Angelia Williams, and soon-to-be State Representative Leslie Herod will
face will be in the primary.
And
believe me… those were some contentious battles that I witnessed in the lead up
to the primary last June.
Honestly,
the primary for Colorado-1 was mainly a bucket list item for DeGette’s
opponent.
And
I understand why the opponents for Williams and Herod fought so hard was
because even though state senator is a 4-year term and state representative is
a 2-year term it is due to where the districts are located. Because of the blue
tint, those offices are at most an 8-year stint with almost guaranteed job
security. Colorado has term limits for its legislators; a state representative
can serve a maximum of 4 consecutive terms while a state senator is up for re-election
once. Williams and Herod will likely be in the general assembly in their
respective chambers until January 2025 UNLESS they lose a primary (unlikely,
incumbency is very powerful) or decide to run for higher office.
And let’s
not forget that Williams’ opponent specifically his campaign manager had some
issues specially in attacking Williams on her liberal bona fides. It was why
she won the primary 82-18.
So
as a Democrat (shhhh…. Don’t tell anyone…), my vote will have no impact on
flipping a state legislative seat or a congressional district from red to blue.
Same
if I was living in Colorado-2 (Jared Polis) or Colorado-7 (Ed Perlmutter).
Still, I encourage people that live in those districts to follow my example and
cast their ballots for these people like I plan to do so for Representative
DeGette.
Now…
If I
lived in Colorado-6 or Colorado-3 or a state
legislative district that was competitive, my voting power would increase even
greater.
Over
the last three election cycles Colorado-6 has been one of the few competitive congressional
districts in the nation. The seat is currently held by Mike Coffman. Coffman
was first elected to Congress in 2008 after climbing through state politics and
occupying the post of secretary of state. He is most
remembered for joining the chorus of Republicans questioning Barack Obama’s
birthplace but later recanted those claims.
After
the 2010 census, Colorado followed suit like many other states and redrew their
congressional seats. Colorado-6 was redrawn from Douglas and Elbert counties to
the more politically and ethnically diverse eastern Denver suburbs.
In
2012, Democrats almost pulled off the upset with a relative nobody losing to
Coffman by 2. Two years later, Colorado Democrats went with former State House
Speaker Andrew Romanoff. Even though he had name recognition, Romanoff lost the
bid by 9 points. In Romanoff’s defense, 2014 was a favorable year for
Republicans where they increased their House majority to a level seen last in
1928 and flipped the Senate.
Democrats
believe they have a candidate that could unseat Coffman this cycle. State
Senator Morgan Carroll, who is term limited, opted to run in Colorado-6.
Carroll has served in both the Colorado State House and Senate since 2005. In
2013, as part of the backlash over expanded background checks then-President of
the Senate John Morse was recalled and the event elevated Carroll to that
position. When Republicans took over the state senate in 2015, Carroll was made
Minority Leader. She resigned the post in July 2015 in order to concentrate her
efforts on defeating Coffman. Carroll authored a book, Take Back Your Government: A Citizen’s Guide to Grassroots Change,
in 2011.
The
Carroll campaign and Colorado Democrats are hoping that this the year that Coffman
is finally unseated. Like many Republicans representing swing seats and states,
Coffman is having to make a choice: embrace Trump and likely lose general
election support; or distance himself from the party’s nominee and lose
critical support from the base. Essentially a lose-lose proposition.
In a
profile by the Colorado
Independent
about the race, the article points out that there is a lot of money poured into
this race. Emily’s List and NARAL Pro-Choice as well as the DCCC and the Super
PAC Immigrant Voters Win are supporting Carroll while the Koch Brothers backed
Americans For Prosperity and the Texas Republicans United PAC are supporting
Coffman.
Given
the district’s demographics combined with Colorado moving away from swing state
status to reliably lean Democratic, Carroll has an excellent chance at becoming
the first Democrat ever elected to represent Colorado-6. When the district was
created after the 1980 census, the district has consistently elected
Republicans. The first to win was Astronaut Jack Swigert of the Apollo
XIII mission but died of cancer prior to taking the seat. Tom Tancredo once
represented the 6th district until he decided to not run for re-election in
2008 to briefly run for the Republican nomination on a primarily anti-immigrant
platform.
Carroll
also has a very key endorsement that she is proud to trumpet.
Exciting news - @BarackObama endorsed our campaign this morning! #copolitics pic.twitter.com/QiAA3RO6Ee— Morgan Carroll (@MorganLCarroll) October 24, 2016
Carroll is one of
150 downballot Democrats that President Obama is endorsing, and Obama won the
district 52-47 in 2012, closely mirroring Colorado’s vote percentage that year.
Meanwhile
a different battle is taking place primarily in the western and southern
portions of the state.
Because
of the toxicity of Trump at the ticket, Colorado Democrats are hoping that it
extends to Colorado-3. The seat has
existed since 1915
and has primarily represented Grand Junction, Pueblo, and Trinidad. 8 Democrats
and 6 Republicans have filled the seat in its century of existence. The last
Democrat to represent Colorado-3 was John Salazar who won the seat in November
2004, a year that was favorable to Republicans nationally. Six years later
Salazar lost the seat in the Republican wave election of 2010.
Since
then, Scott Tipton has represented this wide district and has legislated
primarily as a rubber stamp for his party. According to Ballotpedia, Tipton voted
with his fellow Republicans over 90% of the time in both 2013 and 2014 despite
touting bipartisan credentials. The Denver Post endorsed Tipton in his 2012
re-election bid but recommended he pursue a more moderate path. In 2014, the
paper did not endorse anyone for election to the 3rd. For 2016, the Denver Post
reluctantly endorsed Tipton despite praising Gail Schwartz, his Democratic
opponent, for her accomplishments.
I
will expand on Schwartz’s accomplishments.
Schwartz
was elected to the University of Colorado Board of Regents for Colorado-3 in
2000 campaigning on a platform of increasing higher education access. Upon
being added to the 9-person board, Schwartz supported adding sexual orientation
to the university’s nondiscrimination policy. Schwartz was later elected to
serve in the Colorado state senate and served the maximum two terms.
In
an editorial for Steamboat Today, Schwartz stated
her support for protecting Colorado’s public lands. The issue certainly has
drawn the attention of the presidential candidates.
When asked by
public land advocates which is a unique coalition of conservationists and sportsmen, the Clinton
campaign stated their support that “public lands must stay in public hands” and
promised to double the size of the nation’s $646 billion outdoor economy over
the next 10 years.
The
Trump campaign has said nothing on this matter (which seems to be a pattern
about his policies) and those seeking answers have had to sift through
interviews and public statements to determine a coherent answer. One answer
about who Trump might pick as Interior Secretary has drawn the scorn of the
conservationists as there are hints that he
might pick oil executive Forrest Lucas to run that department.
As I
stated in a post disclosing my financial support for candidates, I am supporting Morgan Carroll and Gail
Schwartz, and I encourage anyone who lives in the districts where they are
running to cast a ballot in their names.
I
also extend this observation to Bob Seay in Colorado-4 and Misty Plowright in
Colorado-5. They are even more strong Republican districts but are deserving of
votes.
Carroll
and Schwartz are similar on their platforms regarding veterans. Carroll would
represent a district where the new VA
Hospital being built in Aurora has veered into large cost overruns. Meanwhile,
Schwartz is the daughter of an Air Force veteran and would serve a district
that at times does not have the same access to those services that the large
metropolitan areas have.
Schwartz
pursued sexual orientation to be covered in the University of Colorado’s
nondiscrimination policy back in the 2000s while Carroll has the
endorsement of the Human Rights Campaign stating her record supporting LGBT rights
dating back to opposing Amendment 2 in 1992.
I
also agree with Carroll on campaign finance reform and ways to find meaningful
legislation in post-Citizens United era.
And
I agree that there do need to be more women involved in politics.
There
is one other thing.
Democrats
need to get out from behind their blue fortresses if they are to retake the
House.
Schwartz
presents a great opportunity for a House pickup. Even though Cook Political
rates it R+4 it is a longshot. For Democrats to do so, they need to seriously
look into start building farm systems in those downballot races like state
legislator, mayor, city council, and other races that are routinely ignored.
Because eventually you get people who can run for Congress, like Carroll and
Schwartz who served in the Colorado Senate, or higher statewide offices like
governor, secretary of state, attorney general, etc. And that means more people
to run for president in future elections.
Another
thing is that if Democrats can retake the House (and it is a longshot given the
lack of competitive House races as well as the number of lean Republican
districts needed to flip) combined with holding the White House past 20 January
2017 and flipping the Senate, then Clinton would have greater odds of advancing
her legislative agenda.
And
that is true voting power
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