Tonight
is not just the final general election presidential debate but the final presidential
debate involving one of the two parties until we start talking about 2020 which
will likely be sometime in the second half of 2019.
Both
Clinton and Trump have to make their closing arguments at the University of
Nevada-Las Vegas to the few remaining undecided voters there are out there on
why they should be the next president.
Based
on the previous debates and the news surrounding Donald Trump, all Clinton has
to do is show up to the debate. As it was in the first debate, Clinton noted
with confidence that not only did she prepare for this debate but she also
prepared to be president. In the second debate, she ran through in the time
allotted on why she was qualified for the job highlighting her time as senator
and Secretary of State.
If I
was Clinton, I would embrace the progress made under Obama given that his
approvals are near what they were during the first year of his presidency.
Obama’s
change message was about moving the country forward towards improving the
country living up to the first three words of the Constitution, “We the people…”
Trump’s
change is about moving the country backwards towards moments in our history
that we romanticize but in reality for many others – specifically women,
blacks, immigrants, religious minorities, gays, etc. – were not that great and
at many instances the Constitution excluded either explicitly or implicitly due
to the social graces of the time period.
Fox
News’ Chris Wallace is the moderator so it will be expected that it might not
be a favorable environment for her. I expect that Wallace could ask her more
questions about the recent WikiLeaks e-mail dump specifically conversations
about her vice-presidential selection list and speeches given to Wall Street in
the interim period between leaving the State Department and announcing her
candidacy.
Again,
these e-mail dumps cannot be independently verified and are likely doctored by
the Russian government in order to sow seeds of doubt about our election
process.
Recently
the Ecuadorian embassy in London where Julian Assange is hiding out in due to
evading a possible sexual assault charge in Sweden cut his internet access. So
take that with a grain of salt and understand that Russia, Assange, and others
have an apparent agenda.
Speaking
about Trump… what can really be said…
In
the time period between the second debate and tonight, Trump has turned on his
party and in return the Republican Party is abandoning him in droves in order
to save their collective asses their majority in Congress and in other
downballot races. The polls and odds I see are showing that it is likely the
Senate will flip back to the Democrats while the House could theoretically be
in play.
He
is also echoing attacks on our institutions such as the press, and the
electoral process claiming the dangerous rhetoric that the vote will be rigged
and encouraging his supporters to monitor polling places in highly urbanized
areas on Election Day.
That
is code for voter intimidation plain and simple.
Over
the last few days, polling has indicated that Clinton is gaining on Trump in
reliably red states such as Arizona, Georgia, and even Texas. Due to a
third-party candidate and a sizeable Mormon population that rejected Trump in
the primary, Utah could make history by either going for a Democrat for the
first time since 1964 or a third-party candidate collecting electoral votes
since 1968.
Either
way the Clinton campaign is pouring resources into states once thought to be
off-limits to her at this point in the campaign. Georgia looks promising with
many people showing up to early vote in Atlanta. A pathway into Arizona could
help Ann Kirkpatrick unseat long incumbent John McCain. I cannot see a scenario
where Clinton wins Missouri or Indiana, but senate races in those states are
competitive and could aid the Democrats in recapturing the majority and make
Speaker Paul Ryan’s fears come true.
The
only way I can see Trump make a historic comeback never seen before in modern
polling is if Trump actually put a reasonable effort into debate preparation
combined with Clinton absolutely tanking the final debate a la the recent
incarnation of the Philadelphia 76ers.
Then
in the final 20 days, Trump and Clinton basically switch bodies like in Freaky
Friday or Vice Versa followed by a massive polling error that grossly
underestimated Trump’s supporters and lower turnout among the Obama coalition
that returns the electoral demographics to what they were in the 1980s.
And
honestly, Trump is out of time. The early voting period has begun in many states.
I have received my ballot here in Colorado and will be filling it out once I
have looked over a couple of the ballot initiatives.
Trump
has no get-out-the-vote operation and an absence of any staff in key
battleground states. His campaign basically conceded Virginia to Clinton by pulling
out and is effectively running a four state operation in Florida, Pennsylvania,
Ohio, and North Carolina. He has to win all four of those states or it is over
and so far, the polls are not kind to him there.
Trump
recently made two stops in Colorado, Colorado Springs and Grand Junction. Too
bad since 1) a majority of the Colorado population is situated in the
Denver-Boulder metro area, and 2) the recent Real Clear Polling Average has
Clinton up 7 in this state.
Once
again, did I mention I got my ballot in the mail yesterday and there is a
coordinated effort by the Clinton campaign and the Colorado Democratic Party to
get people to return their ballots in as soon as possible. I am curious about
what efforts are there by the Republicans to start building their voter bank in
competitive states or if there is one by them at all.
In
closing, this long campaign is about to end. It is time for both candidates to
make their closing arguments to us, the voters, and we will render our verdict
on 8 November about what kind of country we want to live in.
The
choice is ours
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