“Well, Donald, I know you live in your own
reality”
-
Hillary Clinton, first
debate
Do
you really expect Trump to come into tonight’s debate prepared after what has
transpired between then and now?
I
don’t think he is prepared for the upcoming second debate which is a town hall
style debate made of undecided voters which 1) are probably unsure of a Trump
presidency given his behavior since the first debate; and 2) do not live in a
vacuum and are aware of the recent news of Trump’s 2005 sexual assault comments.
Trump
tried to wing it with a staged town hall in New Hampshire where he was lobbed
softballs. That will not cut it. A presidential town hall will ask a little tougher
questions and will expect Trump to dive deeper in policy than just “build a
wall and make Mexico pay for it” and “we’re going to ban all Muslims.”
Okay,
HOW
are you going to achieve those polices? What are you going to do when Congress says that your
wall plan costs too much and they have to raise additional revenues? What
are you going to do when the
Supreme Court rules that your Muslim ban is unconstitutional?
Uhh… I dunno…
There
are also the optics. In 1992, George H.W. Bush was looking at his watch during
the forum. It made it look like he had better things to do than participate in
the debate. Well, in the November election, the voters gave him the chance to
do things other than being president.
I
would watch for the ability of connecting
with the people in the room during this debate. Clinton has that ability; Trump
cannot.
As
shown in the first debate and highlighted in her show the day after, Donald
Trump does not have a basic command of the facts.
That
was one of the problems Rachel Maddow had with Trump’s debate performance. It was
not that he interrupted Clinton, but he did not have a basic command of simple facts
that are easy to look up.
And
that is one of the problems with the modern Republican Party is that they have
chosen to substitute their own reality and become locked into their own little
bubble. Four years ago that bubble grew because Republicans spun themselves up
that Romney was going to win despite what the state polls in key states said.
They
convinced themselves that 2008 was a fluke and that turnout would return to
earlier election cycles that were more favorable to Republicans. What they
failed to encounter was the superior Obama ground game that took into account
the various demographics that the campaign relied on to win.
Here
is a fun fact about the 2012 election: Obama’s tipping point state for the
second consecutive election was Colorado. Obama would have won re-election
without Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and non-binding THE POPULAR VOTE. The Romney
campaign was a worthy opponent for the Obama campaign but it was no match for
their ground operation.
Obama
knew where to target their operations that is expected for the 21st century
while the Romney campaign was still running a late-20th century operation.
Again it was good, but not good enough to win.
But
Republicans retreated into their bubble and convinced themselves that the polls
were skewed, Nate Silver was only saying things to make liberals feel good, and
they were going to win.
And
then Ohio was called
And
the bubble was popped
I
sometimes watch her
post-2012 election commentary, but I think what Rachel Maddow said then is
true now specifically this part right here:
And
if the Republican Party, and the conservative movement, and the conservative
media is stuck in a vacuum sealed, door locked, spin cycle of telling each
other what makes them feel good, and denying the factual, lived truth of the
world, then we are all deprived, as a nation, of the constructive debate
between competing, feasible ideas about real problems.
Unfortunately,
the party might have to go through another humiliating loss to pop the bubble.
The
humiliation is already taking place due to the real-time implosion of the Trump
campaign.
Don’t
worry
One
person is prepared for the job.
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