In
my previous post about Kentucky
I presented this scenario of a Republican controlled Senate without Senator
McConnell.
Here
is another scenario: Republicans end up with a 51-49 advantage.
One
seat would have made all the difference between a 50-50 Democratic Senate and a
combative Republican Senate adding to the dysfunction in Washington.
In
August it was revealed that Senator John Walsh (MT, D) plagiarized
portions of a thesis
while he was a student at the Army War College. Walsh previously was the
Lieutenant Governor of Montana and was appointed to the senate seat to replace
Max Baucus who was appointed as our ambassador to China.
Montana
Democrats had to scramble to find a replacement candidate. At their convention
in Helena, party supporters
voted for Amanda Curtis to replace Senator Walsh as their candidate. Curtis is a
first-term state representative from Butte and outside of the Montana
Legislature, she is a high school math and physics teacher. State
Representative Curtis has a YouTube channel that she uses
to communicate and highlight her time in the Montana legislature.
She
is not running for re-election for her house seat in 2014 citing that she
wanted to finish her masters, but she said that she is eying a
return to politics with a possible run for a seat in the Montana Senate in
2016.
With
her nomination to run for US Senate this cycle that time table has been moved
up and a different office is in play.
As
I pointed out in my post about Kentucky, Montana too has a blue streak in
state level politics.
In 2006, Montana was a
senate battleground. Jon Tester emerged as the winner with only 49.2% of the
vote over the incumbent Conrad Burns. Six years later, Tester would
again win with a plurality. His re-election in 2012 was featured in a Frontline
report titled Big Sky, Big Money which looked at
how the Citizens United decision gutted
campaign finance reform laws and how the unlikely state of Montana found itself
in the middle of that consequential decision.
In
2004, despite George W. Bush winning the state outright in the presidential
election, Montana voters sent Brian Schweitzer, a Democrat, to the governor's
mansion. In 2008, McCain won the state by a slim margin, but Schweitzer won
re-election and Max Baucus was re-elected to the US
Senate 74-26 carrying every county in the state. Romney won the state in 2012,
but despite Schweitzer being term limited Democrat Steve Bullock won the
gubernatorial election.
Montana
Democrats have found a winning formula in their state, but this election cycle
was going to be a tough one had Baucus stayed in the senate and was made worse
by the Walsh plagiarism scandal. Curtis and her campaign should not be blamed
when they lose this coming November. She was placed in an unusual circumstance.
By the time that Curtis entered the race in August she was already trailing Republican
candidate Steve Daines both
in money and television ads. Also Daines has already won a statewide race. In
2012, Daines was elected to Montana's At-large congressional district so he
also has name recognition.
When
the Walsh plagiarism story broke, Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight said that the
Democrats odds of winning that senate
seat went from slim to almost zero. Current odds per Five Thirty
Eight show a greater than 99% chance of Republicans winning that seat. As
does the New
York Times' Senate model. The Washington Post's Election
Lab show better odds for the Democratic candidate by giving the Republican
candidate a 99% chance of winning.
The
real missed opportunity in this is not the political one. It is the human story
about how Senator Walsh plagiarized a paper and not only will it cost him a
place in the United State Senate, but it also questions his integrity as an
Army officer. Walsh touted his military background and integrity during his
campaign and now that is gone.
This
senate race could have lasting ramifications.
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