ELECTION NIGHT IN AMERICA 2010: US SENATE

CURRENT MAKEUP OF THE SENATE

PRESIDENT OF SENATE		Joe Biden
		SENATE LEADER
DEM	59*	Harry Reid (NV)
GOP	41	Mitch McConnell (KY)

NOTE: * 2 Independents Caucus with the Democrats

MAGIC NUMBERS

For Democrats to retain control of the Senate: 50

For Republicans to gain control of the Senate: 51

Why the different numbers? In the event of a 50-50 tie vote in the Senate, the President of the Senate casts the tie-breaker vote, per the Constitution. The President of the Senate is the Vice-President.

Class 3 Senators are up for re-election: 34

DEM: 16

GOP: 18

3 Special Elections: Delaware, New York, West Virginia

DEM: 3

GOP: 0

The Senate is an interesting animal because only a third of that chamber is up for election every two years. The reason why the Democrats ended up with 59 seats in 2008 was due to it being a Presidential year and the states that were up for election. (Class 2 Senators) Seven of the eight Democratic Senate pickups were in states that went for Obama (Alaska was the only McCain state that elected a Democratic Senator, Mark Begich, in a tightly contested Senate race with the late Ted Stephens).

It should also be noted that Obama’s campaign did play a role in getting Senators elected in states that were red in 2004 that went blue in 2008: Colorado, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Virginia. Five states wound up having two Democratic Senators: Oregon, Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Virginia.

The 60-seat majority fell into the Democrats lap when Arlen Specter switched parties in April 2009. The number dropped back to 59 after the January 2010 special election to fill the Massachusetts’s Senate seat vacated due to the death of Ted Kennedy. As seen in 2010, the Senate had difficulties passing legislature due to the constant threat of filibustering by the Republican Party. Some of the legislature that had difficulties passing was the Extension of Unemployment Benefits and National Defense Authorization Act 2011 which contained language to end “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” and enact DREAM.

It is expected that there will be a change in seats in the Senate. The only time there was not a change in seats in the last 40 years of presidential mid-terms was 1982.

President	Mid-Term	Class	Senate Control Before	Senate +/- By Majority Party	Senate Control After
Nixon	1970	1	Dem 57-43	-2	Dem 55-45
Ford	1974	3	Dem 57-43	+4	Dem 61-39
Carter	1978	2	Dem 62-38	-3	Dem 59-41
Reagan	1982	1	GOP 54-46	0	GOP 54-46
Reagan	1986	3	GOP 53-47	-8	Dem 55-45
Bush	1990	2	Dem 56-44	+1	Dem 57-43
Clinton	1994	1	Dem 56-44	-8	GOP 52-48
Clinton	1998	3	GOP 55-45	0	GOP 55-45
W. Bush	2002	2	Dem 51-49	-2	GOP 51-49
W. Bush	2006	1	GOP 55-45	-6	Dem 51-49
Obama	2010	3	Dem 59-41	?	?????

RACES TO WATCH

PENNSYLVANIA

In electoral map math, Pennsylvania has been called the reddest of the blue states. It has been said that in order for someone to win the state’s 21 electoral votes, you have to win the big cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and pick up Democrats in between. Polling is indicating the redness of Pennsylvania as Public Policy Polling is showing that Pat Toomey has a five-point lead over Joe Sestak going into the final stretch. I am not ruling out an upset because both candidates are coming from the extremes of their party: Toomey has the backing of the Tea Party; Sestak is coming from the left of the Democrats. This race could have telling effects of how successful Republicans are or how much can the Democrats survive.

ILLINOIS

This is for President Obama’s old Senate seat (the same seat that former Governor Rod Blagojevich tried to sell) and if the Republicans win this seat it would be a HUGE pick up for them. Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com has given Republican Mark Kirk a 68.7% chance of winning in a close race.

NEVADA

Despite what the national media is showing, I have to agree with what Jon Ralston of the Las Vegas Sun has predicted. In the early voting period 379,589 people have voted. 42.9% of the early votes were by REGISTERED Democrats compared to 41.1% REGISTERED Republicans. The reason why I capped REGISTERED was to make the point that they are registered voters. Typically they fall in line with their party. You may have some cross-over voters, but typically people stay with their party. In the end it will come down to GOTV efforts, which is stated in the Public Policy Polling statement released on November 1. That recent poll has given Sharon Angle a very slim one point lead.

WASHINGTON

Washington was part of the Pacific Firewall Strategy for the Democrats as President Obama made stops in Washington and California to help out candidates in those states. Senator Patty Murray (D) is in a tight race with Republican challenger Dino Rossi. For those unfamiliar with Washington politics, Dino Rossi ran for governor of Washington in 2004 and 2008. 2004 was memorable because of the closeness of the race. Christine Gregoire eked out a 133 vote victory after several recounts were triggered. (I knew that name sounded familiar). If the Republicans are to get to 51, this is part of their strategy. It is going to be difficult: Senator Murray has won each U.S. Senate race with at least 54% of the vote and Washington went for Obama 57.7%-40.5% in 2008.

COLORADO

In 2004, Colorado went for W. Bush 51.7%-47%. In 2008, the state flipped from red to blue, 53.7%-44.7% for Obama. Is it possible that Colorado could experience another flip for 2012? This election could be telling of that trend. It is also worth noting that from How Barack Obama Won, Chuck Todd stated that the Colorado GOP is in shambles. Proof of that: look at who is running for the US Senate (Ken Buck) and governor for Colorado (Tom Tancredo). This election could come down to statements that Ken Buck has made that he is unable to defend.

WISCONSIN

It is looking like Senator Russ Feingold, the three-term Senator from this state, will become a victim of the insurgency against incumbents in this election cycle. The thing to take out of this election is what is on the horizon: 2012. On Meet the Press, Chuck Todd stated that Wisconsin COULD possibly be in play for 2012 due to the ground work that the Republicans have done in that state to push it into swing status. They have a lot of work cut out for them. Wisconsin has been a reliable blue state since 1988. Results were close for 2000 and 2004. Obama won the state 56%-44%.

ALASKA

If you want a reason to stay up late on Tuesday, this is it. The race between Scott McAdams (D), Sarah Palin backed Joe Miller (R), and incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R) who launched a write-in campaign. This race will probably come down to these factors: name recognition, the Murkowski write-in effort, and overall Sarah Palin fatigue. I think most people, including Alaskans, just want Sarah Palin to fade away. Because of the write-in campaign effort by Senator Murkowski, it could be days, if not weeks before we know the results of this election.

PREDICTION:

The Republicans will make gains in the Senate tonight but they will not take over the Senate based on the polling and numbers that are out there. They need 10 seats in order to control the Senate. The GOP will make gains in Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Indiana. Somewhere they need to find seven seats which will be very difficult in places like Colorado, California, Washington, and Nevada.

Democrats retain the Senate, 54-46