CURRENT MAKEUP OF THE HOUSE
SPEAKER | Nancy Pelosi (CA-8) | |
HOUSE LEADER | ||
DEM | 255 | Steny Hoyer (MD-5) |
GOP | 178 | John Boehner (OH-8) |
MAGIC NUMBER: 218
A poll released showed that Democrats are favored over Republicans in a generic ballot by four points. So, why is it that Republicans are expected to make gains in the mid-terms?
That poll was done among REGISTERED voters.
(Hence the importance of voting…)
Among likely voters, Republicans have a slight edge over Democrats in a generic ballot by as much as three points.
Historically, the President’s Party generally loses seats in a mid-term election. The most dramatic was the 1994 mid-term as the Republicans won 54 seats to take control of Congress for the first time since 1954.
The difference between that mid-term and this one was that Republicans were winning special elections leading up to that election. Leading up to this election, Republicans only won one special election: HI-1, and that was due to infighting at the state Democratic level.
According to the New York Times, 42 races are rated as tossups with 29 leaning Republican. Most of them are held by Democrats. Starting at 5PM (CT) is when the first polls close out east. If the results are favorable towards the Democrats in the early, then the anticipated Republican Hurricane might only be a Tropical Storm and Nancy Pelosi retains the Speaker’s Gavel with a very slim majority (225-210).
Mid-terms usually bring out older voters who generally lean Republican. As mentioned before, there is a lot of ground for Democrats to defend.
Despite the successes of Democrats in the first half of the Obama presidency, they are perceived as unpopular due to misinformation and having the D next to a candidate’s name could prove to be a liability in this election.
PREDICTION
Get ready to install a tanning lamp in the Speaker’s Seat on January 3
Republicans win control of the House, 228-207.
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