Along
with Kentucky,
Democratic Senate candidates are trying to keep seats and possibly expand the
map.
This
is a tough cycle because Democrats have seven senators from states that went
for Republican presidential candidates in 2008 and 2012. Two are declining to
run for re-election (South Dakota and West Virginia) and one dropped out
because of a
plagiarism scandal that resulted in Montana Democrats scrambling for a replacement
candidate.
The
remaining four red state Democratic senators, one is in Alaska and the
remaining three are in the south.
For
starters the incumbents.
NORTH CAROLINA, C'MON AND RAISE
UP
In
2008, North Carolina voters sent their electoral votes to a Democratic
candidate. The last time the Tar Heel State did that: 1976.
Obama
won the state but with a plurality of the vote and his closest win margin in
any state. His win in North Carolina was attributed to several factors: North
Carolina's changing demographics, the Obama campaign's willingness to expand
the map, the tone of the McCain-Palin ticket, and the unpopularity of President
George W. Bush.
In
that election, Senator Elizabeth Dole, the wife of Bob Dole, was up for
re-election in that cycle. Dole was seen as an up and comer in Republican
politics having briefly run for president in 2000.
During
the 2008 election, Dole's campaign ran an ad claiming that the Democratic
candidate attended a meeting and took campaign funds from a group promoting
rights for atheists. The ad was titled "Godless."
The
Democratic candidate released this statement:
"I
am absolutely appalled at Elizabeth Dole's vile tactics. This is politics of
the worst kind, and I know it has been rejected by North Carolinians at every
level. It is so unbecoming of a woman like Elizabeth Dole. This is a
fabricated, pathetic ad. I am a Sunday school teacher, I am an elder at First
Presbyterian Church in Greensboro, my family has been going to this church for
over 100 years, I have raised my children there. I have been involved in youth
missions."
The
winner of that North Carolina Senate race is the incumbent Kay Hagen.
Since
that 2008 election, North Carolina has taken a rightward direction in its state
and federal politics.
It
began in November 2010 when North Carolina Republicans flipped the North
Carolina General Assembly from Democrats controlling both chambers to
Republicans controlling both chambers. North Carolina's US House delegation
after the 2010 mid terms lost one Democrat and was at a 7-6 Democratic
advantage.
Like
most states, North Carolina
redraws legislative districts by who controls the state legislature. Since
Republicans were in control in Raleigh, they were going to draw the maps which
meant there was going to be a Republican advantage in the Congressional
delegation.
In
November 2012, Romney won North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes with 50.4%
of the vote. In the US House Election for all 13 districts in North Carolina, Democratic
candidates received 2.22 million votes to Republican candidates receiving 2.14
million votes.
You would think that would result in Democrats holding the most seats in the
North Carolina US House delegation.
You
thought wrong.
Because
of the way the maps were drawn to a Republican advantage, North Carolina's
House delegation was a 9-4 Republican advantage. Republicans in
the North Carolina increased their majorities in the state house and state
senate.
Also
in North Carolina in that election cycle was a gubernatorial election.
Then-Governor Beverly Perdue declined to seek another term as she probably
recognized the difficulties of running for re-election in the same year as the
presidential and seeing the rightward direction of North Carolina in its
legislature.
With
Governor Pat McCrory in place, North Carolina became the focal point for a lot
of rightward policies being pushed through the North Carolina general assembly.
Though there was a lot of focus on Texas, North Carolina had their fair share
of Republican policies passed in their state that angered a lot of people and
led to protests called
Moral Mondays.
Similar
to Texas' anti-abortion law, North Carolina implemented a similar
outpatient surgical center law that claims that it raises the standards of
abortion clinics but in reality it closes many abortion clinics because of the
new regulations they have to meet and it harms many economically disadvantaged
women.
Huh…?
And I thought Republicans were against regulations.
Like
a lot of southern states, North Carolina tried to enact their form of voter
suppression. Thanks to the Supreme Court's ruling in Shelby County, AL v. Holder (2013), many of these
states were given a green light to restrict ballot access to voters who are
likely to vote for Democrats. In North Carolina, the state made many attempts to
restrict the access of the ballot to college students.
It
is projected that North Carolina will miss out on $51 billion in
federal dollars over the next decade due to not participating in Medicaid
expansion
according to a study released by the nonprofit Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.
This
rejection of federal money prompted action from Belhaven, NC Mayor Adam O'Neal.
Not only did he call on
Medicaid expansion to help his community and save his town's rural hospital, but he walked
the 237 miles from eastern North Carolina to Washington, DC.
Oh
and Mayor O'Neal is a Republican.
It
is interesting that North Carolina Republicans chose Thom Tillis out of an eight candidate
field.
Perhaps it was because Tillis was the one who could be the most competitive
against Senator Hagan. Tillis has one liability and it is a HUGE liability.
Tillis
is the current Speaker of the North Carolina House.
All
the policies enacted by the Republican led government in Raleigh and Tillis is
being tied to it. Though polls showed a close election appearing to favor
Tillis in the beginning, it looks like Senator Hagan might be pulling away. According
to Real Clear
Politics,
Hagan has been leading in recent polls resulting in an average of a 3.5 point
advantage.
There
might be a chance to break the Republican hold on North Carolina with this
Senate race and restore some sanity to the Tar Heel State.
WOO PIG SOOEEE
It
is looking more and more likely that Senator Mark Pryor will not be returning
to the Senate in 2015.
Pryor
looked like he was going to retain his senate seat, but recent polls according
to Real
Clear Politics shows that his challenger, Representative Tom Cotton (AR-4,
R), leading by as few as 2 points to as much as 7 in the last five polls conducted.
Though one poll, conducted by USA Today/Suffolk has Pryor leading by 2, is
being regarded as an outlier.
Pryor's
father was a former governor and senator. At 80, David Pryor is hitting the
campaign trail for his son.
Arkansas,
like a lot of southern states, used to be in the Democratic sphere for several
years. The Natural State gave rise to the Clinton Family with Bill serving as
governor and then two terms as President of the United States. In 1992 and
1996, the Clinton-Gore ticket carried the state twice. Mark Pryor won in 2002
which was a very good year for Republicans when the election was turned into a debate
over national security. Pryor won again in 2008 having faced off against third
party opposition.
As
pointed out by this
article in Real Clear Politics, Arkansas does have an independent streak in
their politics. Along with electing Pryor to the Senate in 2002, voters
re-elected Mike Huckabee that cycle. Eight years later, Blanche
Lincoln lost her seat to John Boozman but voters re-elected Mike Beebe as
governor. Now in 2014 there appears to be a close governor's election on who will
replace Beebe.
The
only thing that will keep Pryor in the senate is the turnout operation of
Arkansas Democrats and how well Pryor sells his record in the senate to the
voters while also trying
to distance himself from President Obama.
DOWN ON BAYOU
Mary
Landreau is another incumbent Democrat from a southern red state facing a
difficult re-election bid.
The
polls
for 4 November show her leading, but she could lose this election.
Well
of course she is in Louisiana. Any slipup could cost her the election.
Yes,
but there is a quirk with Louisiana.
In
Louisiana, a candidate for office needs to get 50% or more to win. If not, like
a lot of primaries in the south (Texas, Mississippi, Georgia), the top two head
towards a runoff in December.
So
Senator Landreau could receive the most votes on 4 November but end up losing
her seat in December because of this rule.
Polls
are indicating that likely
scenario.
There
is also this scenario. It is Election Night and Republicans at 50-48 in the US
Senate with Louisiana undecided and the independent candidate in Kansas
winning.
Louisiana
could determine which party controls the Senate for the 114th Congress when it
convenes in January 2015.
GEORGIA ON MY MIND
What
if I told you that not Texas but Georgia could be the next presidential
battleground?
Crazy
coming from a Texan now living in Colorado, but it is possible.
With
little assistance from the national campaign, Obama lost Georgia by 204,000
votes in 2008. Two years later in the Georgia gubernatorial election, Nathan
Deal won that election by 258,000 votes. In the 2012 presidential election,
Romney won Georgia by 300,000 votes.
Like
Texas, Georgia had a long history of one-party rule by the conservative wing of
the Democratic Party from the end of Reconstruction and into the middle of the
20th century. The Civil Rights Movements of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s shifted those
voters
over to the modern Republican Party and resulting their one-party dominance
rule in the 21st century.
Also
like Texas, Georgia is not necessarily a red state but rather a non-voting
state. As show in this segment on his program, Chris Hayes talks about
Georgia's political history and breaks down the
prospects of turning Georgia blue.
According
to former NAACP president Ben Jealous, there are 830,000 unregistered voters of
color. It is safe to assume that based on the voting demographics of 2008 and 2012 that those
voters will likely support a Democratic candidate for office.
If
those voters turn out to the polls, Georgia is a blue state.
Which
is why Georgia State Senator Fran Miller and his fellow Republicans are trying
to suppress
the vote in the Peach State if possible. Early voting will be available on 26
October which is a Sunday and you can expect a lot of Black churches in that
area will have "Souls To The Polls."
The
New Georgia Project has a goal to collect 120,000 voter registration
applications. According to this Slate
article published in September, 85,000 applications have been filled out.
There
is also one more quirk about Georgia.
Like
Louisiana, Georgia has the runoff rule for the Senate. A candidate has to break
the 50% threshold or the election goes to a runoff.
But…
The election will not be held in December. It will be held on 6 January.
As
in three days after the 114th Congress is sworn in.
So
one party could have control of the Senate for a brief period of time before
switching over on 6 January.
And
you can expect resources will be poured in for that election.
Here
is hoping that the Peach Bowl is a good game for all those journalists stuck in
the A-T-L over New Years.
CONCLUSION
The
South is changing in a lot of ways. This is especially true in states like
North Carolina, Georgia, and possibly Texas. The South is a microcosm of our
national politics in a lot of ways. The large cities in the South (Dallas, San
Antonio, Houston, Atlanta, Charlotte, New Orleans) generally go for Democrats
while the rural areas go heavily for Republicans. The suburbs is where you need
to cleave off just enough to squeak out a victory. In presidential, that is why
Democrats haven't won Texas or Georgia in a while.
And
of course, turnout. Who shows up to vote.
Hagan
will likely retain her seat in the US Senate possibly because the voters have
had enough of the extreme politics coming from the state capitol led by Thom
Tillis. As for Landreau and Pryor, I only see one winning, but not both.
Landreau has to avoid the runoff if possible. Pryor was leading at one point,
but the polls were sampling registered voters. Now we are in the time of the election
where the polls start asking LIKELY voters which are making it a closer race in
some places. Right now Pryor is losing when the polls are asking the likely
voters. Name recognition won't save him now.
As
pointed out above, Georgia could be the next battleground state. Michelle Nunn
is running for the US Senate while Jason Carter is running for governor. Nunn
is the daughter of former Georgia US Senator Sam Nunn and Carter is the
grandson of former Georgia governor and President Jimmy Carter. If at least one
of those candidates win, I could buy that Georgia will be in play for 2016.
The
South might be on the rise again.
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