American History and Politics are littered with comebacks.
In July 1754, then-Lieutenant Colonel George Washington surrendered Fort Necessity during the French and Indian War.
Andrew Jackson won the popular vote in 1824, but due to no candidate receiving a majority of votes in the electoral college the election was decided in the House resulting in John Quincy Adams of Massachusetts winning.
Abraham Lincoln lost US Senate elections in 1856 and 1858.
Franklin Roosevelt was on the 1920 Democratic Presidential ticket with Ohio Governor James M. Cox that was trounced by the Republican ticket of Harding-Coolidge.
General MacArthur was chased out of The Philippines vowing he would return.
Richard Nixon lost the 1960 presidential election and then two years later the California Gubernatorial Election. In his press conference after the 1962 loss, he told the press pool, "You won't have Nixon to kick around anymore."
Barack Obama lost the 2000 Illinois 1st Congressional District Democratic Primary.
23 months ago Scott Brown lost his senate race in Massachusetts to Elizabeth Warren. In January 2010, Brown won a special election to replace the late Ted Kennedy in The Bay State. That special election was a surprise to a lot of people in the political class because how did deep blue Massachusetts elect a Republican to the US Senate.
Most of the analysis was that it was a special election and the Democratic candidate, Martha Coakley, did not take the election seriously. Brown ran as the average guy who campaigned across Massachusetts in his pickup truck.
Though there was nothing average about Brown considering that a lot of his campaign finances were from the banking and financial services industries. In return he did everything he could to cripple the legislation that was passed to reign those services in after the financial collapse of 2008.
After his defeat, Brown went to work at a law firm representing the big banks that now-Senator Elizabeth Warren is fighting against. Now he has reemerged in New Hampshire trying to unseat Senator Jeanne Shaheen.
Much like in Massachusetts two years ago, Brown is relying on his deep pockets and his supporters to win this seat.
According to Real Clear Politics, Shaheen is leading by an average of 6.5 points and has led or tied in every poll. Talking Points Memo's Poll Tracker is showing her up by an average of nearly 6 points. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight is giving the incumbent senator an 87% chance of winning.
Scott Brown's comeback will fall short at best is for a variety of reasons.
For starters he is trying to recreate 2010. That election had a very unique set of conditions. Brown defeated Martha Coakley in January 2010 because her campaign did not take that election seriously. I'm sure the Coakley campaign and Democratic strategists figured that because of the state's political makeup that it would be an easy election. What they didn't count on was that 1) it was a special election meaning that fewer people were going to turnout, and 2) the national mood in 2010 had turned extremely sour towards President Obama and Congressional Democrats. The special election for the US Senate in Massachusetts was originally dismissed as having no impact on the November 2010, but in a way it did. It was part of the anti-incumbency wave, specifically towards the Democrats, that resulted in the Republicans flipping the House and making gains in the US Senate.
Despite being a Cosmopolitan magazine model, Brown's views on women are from a Mad Men episode. According to the magazine's endorsement of Senator Shaheen, Brown says that he thinks abortion should be left up to a woman and her doctor… unless the parents have to be notified or when legislators have to step in and decide what procedures they should use. Also despite saying on the stump that he disapproved cutting family planning funding he did support a bill to defund Planned Parenthood.
In 2010, Brown was a political newcomer. In 2014, Brown is a former senator so he has a record of legislation. For instance, in November 2010 supported the Republican filibuster of the Paycheck Fairness Act. So far it seems that he is trying to run away from his nearly three-year record as senator from Massachusetts.
Which brings me to this point: Why is he running in New Hampshire and not challenging Ed Markey in Massachusetts?
Perhaps it has to do with that he is damaged goods in Massachusetts. He lost to Elizabeth Warren in 2012 by 8 points, but lost to women voters by 18 points. In this election, he is trailing a woman senator and his positions that he held as a senator are still there.
In the opening and conclusion of Cosmopolitan magazine's endorsement of Senator Shaheen, it states why she should get another 6-year term in Washington as well as throwing shade on Scott Brown.
A fierce advocate for women's rights, New Hampshire's first female governor and first female senator is running to hold on to her Senate seat. And while we wish we could support the man who once posed nude in our pages, his policy positions just aren't as solid as his abs were in the '80s. We support Jeanne Shaheen for Senate.
Jeanne Shaheen doesn't hide in the bathroom. She took to the floor of the Senate to argue in favor of increasing the minimum wage to a livable $10.10 an hour, pushed the military to end discrimination against gay and lesbian service members, and cosponsored the DREAM Act, which establishes a path to permanent residency for some immigrants brought to the United States as children. Scott Brown may have been Cosmopolitan's "sexiest man" in 1982, but in 2014, we're picking brains over brawn — and that's Jeanne Shaheen.
Scott Brown's political comeback will end on 4 November 2014. And I don't expect him to make a fourth attempt at elected office.