NFC WEST PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
2. Cardinals
4. Rams
SAN FRANCISCO: PATH TO DIVISION TITLE
The 49ers have a lot of upside heading into the 2010 regular season. Despite having two consecutive seasons where they failed to make the playoffs, Head Coach Mike Singletary has San Francisco believing that they could win their first division title since 1998.
Well… We all know that Mike Singletary loves to party…
The 49ers ended 2009 with the sixth ranked rushing defense limiting teams to 97 yards per game, in the top 12 for interceptions, and in a three way tie for third place with 44.0 sacks. It is clear that Mike Singletary is trying to implement the same strategy on defense: limit the number of points, force turnovers, and get after the quarterback. That’s Football 101.
If you need proof of their defensive strategy, see their home games from last season against the Bears…
And their Monday Night upset of the playoff bound Cardinals in December.
The defense is led by linebacker Patrick Willis who has been named to three consecutive Pro Bowls starting with his rookie season in 2007. The last 49ers player to be named to named to three consecutive Pro Bowls starting from their rookie season: Ronnie Lott.
Last season Willis led the NFL in tackles with 152, matched his career best for sacks in a season with four, and posted a career best for a season with three interceptions including returning one for a touchdown. Coach Singletary said that he’s “coached two of the greatest linebackers — one that has already proven to be one of the greatest (Ray Lewis) and one who will prove to be (Patrick Willis).”
I think Mike Singletary knows a thing or two about linebackers.
The offense has a lot of room to improve (27th ranked offense in total yards). Frank Gore is one of the most explosive running backs in league and even though he had his best rushing year since 2007 (2009: 1,120 yards rushing, 8 rushing TDs), Gore has not been able to match the stats he posted in 2006 (2,180 total yards rushing and receiving).
Wide receiver Michael Crabtree will be entering his first full season as a pro. Even though he did not sign with the 49ers until midseason, he caught 48 passes for 625 yards. His presence for a full 16 game season should move the 49ers up from the 22nd ranked passing offense.
Despite getting off to a rocky start with Coach Singletary, tight end Vernon Davis posted career bests in receptions (78), yards (965), and receiving touchdowns (13). He has a lot of lofty expectations to live up to, but I think he has the right coach to keep him motivated and focused.
The quarterback position is interesting. Many analysts have labeled Alex Smith, the 2005 first overall pick, as a bust. Smith was often injured over a two season period, including missing the entire 2008 season with a shoulder injury. Another reason was the 49ers not implementing the similar style of spread offense that Smith worked with in college at Utah. The coaching staff is committed to that. Last season in 11 games, Alex Smith posted his best stats since 2006 including career bests in completion percentage (60.5%), touchdowns thrown (18), and interceptions (12).
The schedule is a good balance. They host the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints in Week 2 on Monday Night. They play at Atlanta in Week 4. In Week 8, they will play the Broncos at home in London for the league’s annual international game. In Weeks 12-17, 4 of their final 6 games are against teams that made the playoffs, including facing off against the Cardinals twice.
The league has also taken notice rewarding the 49ers with 4 primetime games (2 Monday Night Games, 1 Sunday Night Game, and a Thursday Night Game late in the season).
The 49ers are the trendy pick to win the NFC West because of the upside, a fiery head coach, and they play in weak division.
However… it will not be easy to wrestle the division crown away from the Racine Chicago St. Louis Phoenix Arizona Cardinals.
ARIZONA: IN TRANSITION
The Cardinals history is mired in total suckage. 8 total postseason appearances (I can count them on my HAND!), a 61 season period in between championship game appearances, and 5 different location changes.
The Cardinals have a rare opportunity. In their LONG history, they have only posted three consecutive seasons of finishing better than .500 six times (1922-24, 1923-25, 1946-48, 1947-49, 1974-76, 1982-84). The last time the Cardinals made the playoffs in consecutive seasons was when they won the NFC East as the St. Louis Cardinals in 1974 and 1975. The only other time they made the postseason was when the Chicago Cardinals played for the NFL Title in 1947 (won, 28-21) and 1948 (lost 7-0 in a blinding snowstorm in Philadelphia). The Cardinals have never had consecutive seasons where they won at least one playoff game until 2008-09.
The road to their third consecutive division title will be difficult with the retirement of quarterback and NFL Hall of Famer class of 2015 Kurt Warner and wide receiver Anquan Boldin traded to Baltimore.
Coach Ken Whisenhunt: “No problem.”
Ken Whisenhunt was involved with the Pittsburgh Steelers as an assistant coach from 2001-06 including their offensive coordinator when they won Super Bowl XL. About the changes in the Cardinals lineup: “With the Steelers, you lost a Rod Woodson at safety and a Carnell Lake stepped up… . You'd lose a Joey Porter but you find a James Harrison… . If you're a good football team, you go through those transitions and keep going. Look, when Anquan Boldin was hurt, Steve Breaston stepped in and we kept winning. Now it's time for some young guys like [defensive end] Calais Campbell [cornerback] Greg Toler, [wide receiver] Early Doucet, [running backs] Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower to step their games up.”
Coach Whisenhunt has brought that winning attitude to the desert, but in 2010 that philosophy may be challenged.
The Cardinals have one of the most explosive passing offenses in the league (ranked 12th), but who will lead it? Matt Leinart was drafted in the first round of the 2006 draft but has not lived up to expectations. Derek Anderson was a Pro Bowl quarterback at Cleveland back in 2007. The Cardinals have not decided who will be their starter in Week 1 at St. Louis. Someone has to get the talented Larry Fitzgerald the football who finished in three-way tie for first place in touchdown catches with 13 (the other two: Randy Moss and Vernon Davis), and posted his third consecutive 95+ catch season and 1,000 yard receiving season.
The Cardinals are going to need to improve their rushing game as they have ranked in the bottom five in rushing yards over the past two seasons (2008: 32nd, 2009: 28th). Coach Whisenhunt has faith that running back Beanie Wells is ready to improve upon his rookie season where he rushed for 793 yards and 7 touchdowns.
Looking at their schedule, three of their first five games are against teams that finished 2009 better than .500 which could be critical to their season, including a playoff rematch against the Saints in Week 5 in the desert. In Week 9 they travel to Minnesota. Their first game against the 49ers is not until Week 12, and they close out the season at San Francisco.
Even though the Cardinals are going through a transition period and history is against them, it would be unwise to count them out for winning their third consecutive NFC West crown because of the mentality that Whisenhunt has brought to this organization. The NFC West division race should be one of the more interesting playoff races in 2010.
SEATTLE: PETE CARROLL RETURNS
Pete Carroll was hired in order to escape the looming athletic sanctions that USC faced return the Seahawks to their playoff glories from 2004-07. This is Pete Carroll’s third team as a head coach in the pros. His previous stops include the Jets in 1994 (6-10) and with the Patriots for three seasons (27-21, a division title, two playoff appearances) from 1997-99. While as the head coach of USC from 2001-09, he won seven Pac-10 Titles, two national championships (2003 AP split with LSU, 2004 BCS trouncing of Oklahoma) and posted an officially recognized NCAA win-loss record of 97-19 83-19.
Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck in his career with Seattle has posted six 3,000-yard passing seasons. However, over the past two seasons, Hasselbeck has been often injured and thrown for 22 touchdowns vs. 27 interceptions. He posted his Seattle career worst touchdown passes in 2008 (5) and worst interceptions thrown in 2009 (17). Even though he holds many Seahawks team records, he is facing a challenge for his job from Charlie Whitehurst.
In order to help Hasselbeck out, the Seahawks drafted 2009 Jim Parker Trophy winner tackle Russell Okung from Oklahoma State with the sixth overall pick and to help their receiving corps out, 2009 Biletnikoff Award Winner Golden Tate in the third round from Notre Dame. Also to help out the running and kickoff return game, Leon Washington was signed from the Jets during the off-season.
The Seahawks weakness from last season was their pass defense which ranked third from the bottom. The team suffered injuries from key players such as Marcus Trufant and Lofa Tatupu. They also spent 5 of their 9 draft picks on defense including Texas safety Earl Thomas with the 14th overall pick.
Looking at their schedule, besides their division games against Arizona and San Francisco, their toughest games are at home against the Chargers (Week 2), Giants (Week 9), Falcons (Week 15) and a road game at New Orleans (Week 11).
If the Seahawks can stay healthy, they could make a return to the playoffs. It is possible they could turn the NFC West into a 3 team race with that key IF factor.
ST. LOUIS: WELL, AT LEAST RUSH LIMBAUGH IS NOT AN OWNER
Last season the Rams matched their lowest win total since their inaugural season in 1937 when they were the Cleveland Rams. They also exceeded their worst winning percentage since 1962 with a 1-12-1 record when they were in Los Angeles (a tie counts as half a win and half a loss).
They ranked in the bottom third in the following major categories: scoring defense (31st 27.2 points per game), total yards on defense (29th giving up 372.8 yards per game), total yards (29th gaining 279.4 yards per game), and the most glaring statistic: dead last in scoring with 10.9 points per game.
The upside is that this is a young team and has some talent. Believe it or not, running back Steven Jackson was second in the NFL in rushing yards with 1,416 yards last season. That should help out with first overall pick quarterback Sam Bradford’s transition from college to the pros.
If you have noticed in the last couple of seasons featuring rookie quarterbacks, they were aided by good running games. The Falcons and Ravens were in the top five for rushing yards in 2008 with rookie quarterbacks under center. The result? Both teams made the playoffs. The Ravens made it to the AFC Championship game. Last season, the Jets had rookie Mark Sanchez under center and led the league in rushing. That led them to a deep playoff run. This formula is somewhat similar to what happened to the Steelers in 2004 when rookie Ben Roethlisberger won his first 13 regular season starts being aided by a top five rushing team that led to an appearance in the AFC Championship game.
Even though Sam Bradford will have help with a top running back behind him, I am not expecting the Rams to make the same strides that teams have made with rookie quarterbacks in the previous seasons (Jets in 2009, Ravens and Falcons in 2008). They will improve upon their 1-15 record and be a competitive team, BUT making the playoffs is a bit of a stretch. I see them at most winning 5 games.
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