AFC WEST PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
1. Chargers
2. Broncos
3. Chiefs
4. Raiders
SAN DIEGO: STAYING HOT
One of the biggest offseason free agency moves was the Chargers waiving running back LaDainian Tomlinson. Tomlinson was the league MVP in 2006 and the Chargers all time leading rusher in yards and touchdowns, but over the last couple of season his production slipped due to injuries. His toughness has been called into question, most notably during the 2007 AFC Championship Game when he suited up but when the Chargers got inside the red zone, he was nowhere on the field.
The Chargers running game is going to be handled by speed back Damien Sproles and first round pick out of Fresno State, Ryan Mathews who is of the same size and weight as Tomlinson.
The Chargers offense still revolves around quarterback Philip Rivers, who threw for a career best 4,254 yards in 2009, and their receiving corps led by tight end Antonio Gates, who posted career bests in reception yards (1,157) and average yards per catch (14.6). The team finished in the top 5 in total passing yards last season. Even though receiver Vincent Jackson is holding out, I don’t think that will matter as long as Rivers and Gates are there similar to the passing combo of Fouts and Winslow of the Air Coryell era. The recent trade for receiver Patrick Crayton from Dallas has sent a message to Jackson.
Despite trading Antonio Cromartie to the Jets, the Chargers defense remains constant with play makers linebacker Shawne Merriman and cornerback Quinton Jammers. Even though the defensive side of the ball has seen many changes, those two players have been in place since 2005.
The only tough games on the Chargers schedule are against the Patriots (October 24), and road games at Indianapolis (November 28), and at Cincinnati (December 26). Division rival Denver (Monday night in San Diego on Week 11, season finale in Denver) is always a test and could play into San Diego’s plans to win their fifth straight AFC West Title. I would expect the Chargers to win 12 games.
Phillip Rivers may be feeling the pressure to win a title as the other quarterbacks drafted in the Top 10 from the 2004 NFL Draft have won Super Bowl Titles (Eli Manning- XLII, Ben Roethlisberger- XL, XLIII)
Playoffs… well over the last 3 seasons the Chargers have been one of the best teams in the league but they have been unable to break down the door. This sounds like the Chargers teams from the Air Coryell era: great regular season teams, but unable to reach the Super Bowl. 2007 might have been their best chance to win a title, but because of Coach Norv Turner’s play calling in that season’s AFC Title Game it cost them the chance to play in the Super Bowl.
As we saw last season, the Chargers had no problem getting hot as they closed out 2009 by winning 11 straight regular season games. They have to keep that level of play going if they want to play in Dallas on February 6, 2011.
DENVER: TEBOW IS OUR SAVIOR
The Broncos pulled off one of the biggest draft day surprises in recent memory by selecting Florida QB and 2007 Heisman Trophy Winner Tim Tebow with the 25th overall pick. Most draft experts did not expect Tebow to be drafted until the third round at the earliest because he did not fit the mold of a pro style quarterback.
Kyle Orton is the current starter, led the Broncos to a 6-0 record at the start of last season, and posted his best career statistics in passing yards (3,802 yards), touchdowns (21), completion pct. (62.1), and quarterback rating (86.8). However, the Broncos struggled in the second half of the season and failed to make the playoffs.
Brady Quinn was traded from Cleveland in order to shore up the position. He was expected to be the second coming of Bernie Kosar, but he was unable to receive any quality playing time and face it, the Browns are terrible.
Tim Tebow? I am curious about what is his role is going to be with Denver. Is it going to be similar like his role was in his first few seasons at Florida where he was brought in short yardage situations and eventually start him or are they going to start him and expect him to be an NFL style quarterback? Remember, head coach Josh McDaniels is a Belichick disciple so he probably has a way to maximize Tebow’s talents.
Knowshon Moreno, who led all rookie running backs in rushing yards (947), carries (247), and tied with Arizona’s Bennie Wells in rushing touchdowns (7) is looking to become the first Denver running back to exceed 1,200 yards since Rueben Droughns in 2004. The running game is going to be affected by the loss of LenDale White to a torn Achilles tendon in the pre-season finale. White was looking to revive his career in Denver after conflict with the Titans running backs coach and his work ethic being questioned. It will clearly be put to the test as he will be out for the season.
The Broncos will have to rely on their receiving corps to step up due to the trade of Brandon Marshall to Miami. Even though Marshall posted three consecutive 100+ catch and 1,000 yard receiving seasons in Denver, he became a problem most notably for off the field issues and disputes with Josh McDaniels and his coaching staff.
Even though they have play makers on defense like shutdown corner Champ Bailey and hard hitting free safety Brian Dawkins leading last season's 7th ranked defense (315 yards per game), their defense will struggle with the season ending injury of hybrid (play both LB AND DE) Elvis Dumervil to a torn pectoral muscle during training camp.
The Broncos problem over the last three seasons is that they start off strong, like last season, but then down the stretch they fade away. Examples include the 2006, 2007, and 2008 seasons where the Broncos were still in the playoff race going into the final weeks and all they needed to do was win and they were in.
They key stretch of the Broncos 2010 schedule will be from Weeks 3-6 (IND, at TN, at BAL, NYJ) as they face 3 out of 4 teams that made the playoffs and are bookended by the 2009 AFC Championship Game participants. On top of that they have a road trip to San Francisco London to play the 49ers on Halloween.
The Broncos are facing both front office personnel changes and injury challenges in 2010. If, like in the opener against Cincinnati last season, the Broncos catch some breaks, they could be in playoff contention in the last month of the season. I think the Broncos are a good team, but I don’t see them making the playoffs in 2010.
KANSAS CITY: BUILDING A NEW CASSEL
I remember when the Chiefs were good. No, not back in 2006 when they last made the playoffs. Not 2003 when they last won their division, but in the mid 90s when they would clinch the AFC #1 seed and then get beat in their first playoff game. I bet Chiefs fans long for those days.
The Chiefs plan on centering their rebuilding project on quarterback Matt Cassel. As you may recall, Cassel was able to lead the Patriots minus an injured Tom Brady to an 11-5 record in 2008. Based on that season alone, he was traded to Kansas City during the offseason. 2009 saw a drop in his stats due to a lack of a supporting cast. Receiver Chris Chambers was claimed off waivers during the 2009 season in order to give Cassel a target.
Thomas Jones, a journey man running back who rushed for 1,402 yards on 331 carries and rushed for 14 TDs (career bests), is with his fifth team in his 10 year NFL career.
Their defense will be a liability as they are coming in as the 30th ranked defense in yards per game from last season. The bright spot is drafting safety Eric Berry who set records at Tennessee for most interception return yards at that school and is the 2009 Jim Thorpe Award recipient.
For the Chiefs to be successful again, they need to do one thing:
Being able to run the ball will help the Chiefs move out of the basement but not quite to competing for a division title. There are too many holes to plug on this team. After another offseason with General Manager Scott Pioli and Head Coach Todd Haley, the Chiefs should compete for the AFC West crown within a couple of seasons.
OAKLAND: A COMMITMENT TO… SOMETHING
Since their loss in Super Bowl XXXVII, the Oakland Raiders have finished with an average of 4 wins and no better than third place in their division. Combined with injuries, poor drafts, and overall Al Davis meddling frequent head coaching changes, the Raiders are a long ways from their glory days.
The only bright spot on the Raiders roster is cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha who has emerged as one of the best cover corners in the league. They have two running backs, which excelled in college, but have failed to produce at the NFL level. At the quarterback position they have four quarterbacks on their roster: Kyle Boller, Jason Campbell, Charlie Frye, and Bruce Gradkowski. I think if given a chance, Gradkowski could be the starter. He puts up a convincing argument based on his stats from last season. He appeared in 6 games throwing for 854 yards, 6 TDs-3 INTs including leading the Raiders to a 27-24 upset win at Pittsburgh where he threw for 308 yards and 3 touchdowns. For his efforts in that game, he was named the AFC Offensive Player for Week 13.
Their schedule does not help them out either. The Raiders could possibly be at 0-9 by their bye week in Week 10, and everyone will be waiting for Al Davis’s announcement that Tom Cable is fired. The only “winnable” games I see in that stretch are home games against the Rams, Seahawks, and Chiefs (and I cannot convince myself that they will win ONE of those games). Though those teams are bad, they are significantly better than the Raiders.
Even if Al Davis convinces John Madden to come out of retirement, there really is no hope for the Raiders. This will be another abysmal season for a once proud franchise.
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