AFC SOUTH PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
1. Colts
2. Texans
3. Titans
4. Jaguars
INDIANAPOLIS: STABILITY AND CONSISTENCY
Recently there has been a trend in the NFL of the Super Bowl loser experiencing a hangover period the next season. In the 2000s only three teams were able to return to the playoffs after losing the previous season’s Super Bowl (2000 Titans, 2006 Seahawks, 2009 Cardinals). If you expand it to as far back as 1994 (the year I started watching football), it’s almost even (7 playoff teams vs. 9 non-playoff teams). The best season for a previous season Super Bowl loser was Tennessee in 2000 posting a 13-3 record and earning the AFC’s #1 seed… and losing to eventual Super Bowl champion Baltimore in the first round. The best record for a previous Super Bowl loser not making the playoffs in the next season: 2008 Patriots posting an 11-5 record.
I cannot envision a scenario to where the Colts fail to make the playoffs. Offensively this is a complete team. Despite overall changes in the receiving corps and the head coaching position, the Colts were able to make their second Super Bowl appearance in four seasons. Peyton Manning, once again proved that he is a force to be reckoned with in the NFL and why he is the reigning league MVP.
Why do you think Coach Belichick went for it on fourth and 2 from the Patriots 28 with a little over 2 minutes to go?! It would have been better to punt the ball and pin the Colts offense deep than to give Manning less than 30 yards to work with. Belichick knew that if he got the first, he would be hailed a genius by keeping the ball away from the Colts future Hall of Famer.
Should have asked the Dolphins about keeping the ball away…
In every season that Manning has played, he has posted at least 3,700 yards passing and 25 touchdowns. Last season he threw for his third consecutive 4,000 yard passing season. He clearly has the receiving corps in Reggie Wayne…
Austin Collie…
Pierre Garçon…
And the reliable tight end Dallas Clark to post another 4,000 yard passing season for Manning.
None of this would be possible without the ability to keep Peyton Manning upright. Watch the clips and see how much time the Colts offensive line gives Manning to complete his passes. The strength of that line lies in four-time Pro Bowler center Jeff Saturday.
The relationship between quarterback and center is a very important one.
I may have to agree with Jeff on this one about running the ball. The Colts last year ranked dead last in rushing offense. It is not that the Colts can’t run the ball; it’s just that when you have Peyton Manning under center there really is no need to run the ball.
The Colts are an average defense, nothing really glaring statistically. However, don’t let that average rating fool you. The strength of the Colts defense lies in their pass rushers of Dwight Freeny and Robert Mathis on the end of the line. Last season, Freeny and Mathis combined for 23 of the Colts 34 sacks. Freeny was also third in the NFL in sacks.
The Colts schedule is as follows:
Week 1 and 8 features a match-up between two 4,000 yard passers as the Colts take on the Texans who are looking to unseat the Colts in the AFC South.
In Week 2, Manning Bowl II will take place on Sunday Night in Indianapolis.
The Colts could possibly have another undefeated streaking going before their schedule gets difficult. In Weeks 10-13, will feature teams that won their divisions in 2009 (Bengals, at Patriots, Chargers, Cowboys). Three out of four of those games are at home.
The big one: (of course) at New England. This will be the eight straight regular season meeting for these two teams and the first in New England since 2006. The Colts are 4-7 in Brady vs. Manning games including the four post-season meetings (beat the Patriots in 2008 regular season meeting, BUT Brady was out with a knee injury that season). The Colts have won the last four meetings including the epic matchup from last November.
The last Super Bowl loser to make it back to the Super Bowl in the next season: Buffalo after the 1991 1992 1993 season. Before that it was Minnesota returning to Super Bowl IX after getting run over (literally) by the Dolphins in Super Bowl VIII.
The only team to lose the Super Bowl and then return to hoist the Lombardi Trophy…
It is because of that stability and consistency is why I can see the Colts repeat as division champions in 2010. If there is a team that can avoid that post Super Bowl loser hangover, it is Indianapolis.
HOUSTON: IS THIS THE YEAR?
Which NFL Quarterback led the league in passing yards in 2009?
Tom Brady?
No.
One of the Mannings?
Tony Romo?
No.
Phillip Rivers?
No.
Super Bowl MVP Drew Brees?
No.
Uhh…. Give up.
That honor belongs to Houston Texans quarterback Matt Schaub.
He threw for a franchise record 4,770 yards last season while completing 67.9% of his passes and throwing 29 TDs vs. 15 INTs. The last Houston quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards (this includes the Texans and Oilers franchises): Warren Moon with 4,690 yards in 1991. He exceeded his 1990 total of 4,689 yards. And he is also the last Houston (Oilers or Texans) quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards in back-to-back seasons.
Since acquiring Schaub in a trade from Atlanta, the Texans have posted an 8-8 record in 2007 and 2008. Last season was their best record in the franchise’s short history by posting a 9-7 record. Houston has slowly risen out of the AFC South basement by finishing third in 2008 and second last season.
Matt Schaub’s passing has made people take notice of receiver Andre Johnson who posted his second consecutive 100+ catch season and his third in four seasons. The Texans franchise leader in receiving yards, touchdowns, and catches led the league in receiving yards with 1,569 yards and receiving yards per game with 98.1. The last receiver to lead the league in receiving yards in consecutive seasons:
Running back Steve Slaton looks to rebound after a disappointing second season where he rushed for 437 yards, 3 touchdowns, and fumbled the ball 7 times. Fumbles and a shoulder injury eventually sidelined him for 2009.
Here is a clip from Slaton’s rookie season where he set the Texans single-season rushing record with 1,282 yards.
Not exactly The Tyler Rose, but I am sure that Houston football fans recognize that he has that speed.
Steve Slaton’s rookie campaign for a Houston running back was the best that the city has seen since Houston Oilers running back Eddie George rushed for 1,368 yards and 8 touchdowns in 1996 before leaving for Nashville. Before that, Oilers fans were treated to Earl Campbell’s rookie season in 1978 when he rushed for 1,450 yards and 13 touchdowns.
It is apparent that the Texans front office made the right decision in selecting defensive end Mario Williams with the first overall pick in the 2006 draft. Williams was selected to his second consecutive Pro Bowl in 2009. DeMeco Ryans and Brian Cushing ended up in the top five for total tackles among AFC linebackers.
Early in 2009, the Texans picked up safety Bernard Pollard who picked off a career best four passes last season. His presence was part of the reason why the Texans went from #22 to #13 in total defense last year.
Another smart move was selecting Coach Garry Kubiak to lead the Texans. Kubiak was the quarterback coach for Steve Young when the 49ers won their fifth Super Bowl title in the 1994 season. Mike Shanahan brought him to Denver as their offensive coordinator and led John Elway to back-to-back Super Bowl rings in his final NFL seasons.
Now, I am not suggesting that Texans are ready to make that leap; they have to make the playoffs first. There is one team that stands in the way for the best path for a post season berth: Indianapolis.
Here is one common thread between the Oilers and the Texans: In the late 1970s, the Oilers were on the cusp of making their first Super Bowl appearance, but guess who stood in their way: the Steel Curtain defense. In the 1978 AFC Championship Game, the Oilers were routed at Three Rivers Stadium… bad. 34-5.
The next year the Oilers and Steelers met again at Three Rivers Stadium. It was a closer contest, but one of the most controversial calls in league history played a factor in the final score and scared a young Oilers fan for life and is proof why instant replay is a good thing.
Over the last couple of seasons the Texans have played competitive games against the Colts, BUT something seems to go wrong.
2007…
2008…
2009…
Along with division rival Tennessee, the Texans have the toughest schedule in the NFL. Their first game is against… the Colts. Three of their first four games are against quarterbacks who last season threw for over 3,500 yards and posted quarterback ratings over 90.0. The defense will not have linebacker Cushing due to serving a four-game suspension for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy for overtraining.
After the bye week their first game is a Monday Night encounter in Indianapolis followed a home matchup against the Chargers and three games against teams that ranked in the top 10 in rushing from 2009 (at Jacksonville, at Jets, vs. Titans).
The Ravens visit Houston in a Week 14 Monday Night matchup. The Texans visit Denver on the day after Christmas. The Texans close out the season at home against the Jaguars.
It is a tough schedule. The Texans will be tested every week. They are right at the door, but the Colts are in their way. Winning the division would be their best route to making their first playoff appearance.
EXPANSION TEAMS SINCE THE 1970 NFL-AFL MERGER
| TEAM | FIRST SEASON | PLAYOFFS | FIRST PLAYOFF WIN |
| TAMPA BAY | 1976 | 1979 | 1979 |
| SEATTLE | 1976 | 1983 | 1983 |
| CAROLINA | 1995 | 1996 | 1996 |
| JACKSONVILLE | 1995 | 1996 | 1996 |
| BALTIMORE | 1996 | 2000 | 2000 |
| HOUSTON | 2002 | ? | ? |
(NOTE: When Art Modell relocated the Browns to Baltimore in 1996, the league left the history of the Browns in Cleveland. The Browns returned to play in 1999)
Currently, Houston is the only post-1970 expansion team to not make the playoffs. They are approaching their ninth season without a playoff appearance. It only took the Houston Oilers ONE season to make the post season when they (and seven other teams) entered the AFL in 1960 when they defeated the Los Angeles Chargers 24-16 for their first of two league championships.
If they can win just one game against the Colts, Houston will be playoff bound.
TENNESSEE: CJ2K ENCORE?
Ladies and gentlemen, with 2,006 yards rushing on 358 carries averaging 5.60 yards per carry and scoring 14 touchdowns, the Tennessee Titans single season rushing leader and 2009 NFL Rushing Champ…
Every time that Chris Johnson touches the ball, it has the potential to go for a score, almost like Barry Sanders. But unlike Sanders, Johnson gains positive yardage. Johnson can even make a 36-yard run exciting to watch.
If you look at Johnson’s game-by-game log, he was on pace to put up an average season during the first six games (averaged 99 yards rushing per game = 1600 rushing yard season pace). During the final ten games, he averaged 141 yards a game which would have easily shattered Eric Dickerson’s single season rushing record of 2,105 yards that was set in 1984 by a comfortable 151 yards. At that pace, the record would have been broken around game number 14 or 15.
Not only was Chris Johnson the leading rusher from last season, but with 503 yards receiving (third on the Titans) on 50 catches (first on the team) he also set the single-season record for yards from scrimmage with 2,509 yards on 408 total touches and 16 touchdowns (66 of those yards).
Johnson is a valuable weapon for the Titans. His 2,006 yards was the most that a Tennessee Titans running back rushed for since Eddie George’s 2000 season in which he rushed for 1,509 yards on 403 carries. If you include the Houston Oilers records, Earl Campbell’s 1980 season stood as the most rushing yards in the team’s history
What can he do to top that?
It is going to be difficult. In the entire history of the NFL, a total of six running backs have rushed for over 2,000 yards in a season.
| PLAYER | YARDS | THE NEXT SEASON |
| 2,003 | 1,125 | |
| 2,105 | 1,234 | |
| 2,053 | 1,491 | |
| 2,008 | 211 | |
| 2,066 | 1,006 | |
| 2,006 | ? |
(NOTE: Nevada Dept. of Corrections Inmate #1027820 Simpson rushed for over 2,000 yards in a 14-game season)
Each 2,000 yard man experienced some kind of drop off the next season. Each player, with an exception of Barry Sanders, did not play in every game the next season. Terrell Davis suffered a catastrophic knee injury on a tackle against the Jets in 1999 that cut his promising career short. Barry Sanders was a freak of nature that was carrying a Lions team that had no chance in Hell if he didn’t play that despite being flawed at other positions were a very talented team in the 1990s until Sanders abruptly retired within striking distance of the all time rushing record held by Walter Payton followed by the hiring of Matt Millen which has put the Lions in the state that we know them today.
Those are constants in the NFL: 2,000 yard or 400+ carry running back experience some kind of drop off the next season.
Johnson’s attack on the record book along with quarterback Vince Young regaining the starting job led the Titans to an 8-2 record after a dismal 0-6 start that included a 59-0 beating in an October snowstorm at New England. From their bye week, the Titans went from going onto the clock for the NFL Draft to being in the thick of the AFC playoff race.
I am curious about which Vince Young will show up in 2010: the one that won rookie of the year in 2006 and led the Titans to a playoff berth in 2007 or the one that flamed out in 2008? In his short NFL career, Young has never played a full 16-game season.
Defensively, the Titans struggled in 2009. Most of it was caused by the free agent defection of Albert Haynesworth during the 2009 off-season and stomping on a Terrible Towel in a 2008 regular season game against the Steelers. The Titans went from #7 in 2008 to #28 ranked defense in the NFL in 2009. The passing defense was the cause in the sudden drop as it went from #9 in 2008 to #31 in 2009. Keith Bullock left via free agency to the Giants. Replacing his leadership will be difficult.
Not all is gloom and doom for the Titans on defense. Cornerback Cortland Finnegan posted his second consecutive five interception season and led the team in interceptions last season. He also returned one for a touchdown. The Titans can generate interceptions as they picked off 20 passes last season to rank eighth in the league.
The Titans are tied with the Texans for the league’s toughest schedule going into 2010. Their first two games are at home against the hopeless Raiders followed by the Steelers who haven’t decided who will start for their suspended quarterback. Four of their next six games are on the road, including matchups at the Giants and the Cowboys and playing in San Diego on Halloween.
After the bye week, the Week 10 contest between the Dolphins could be intriguing as two of the league’s top ten rushers face off.
Five of the final six games are against the AFC South including three straight home games against the entire division in Weeks 13-15 (Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Houston).
If the Titans were not in the AFC South, I would pick them to finish at best second. But, like the Texans, the Colts stand in their way to make the playoffs. The questions are can the Titans keep their hot streak from last season going to where it will land them back in the playoffs this season and which Vince Young will show up under center.
JACKSONVILLE: IF THEY WIN GAMES AND NO ONES SEES IT…
This is probably going to be my longest entry about a last place team. That is the problem with the AFC South. There is Indianapolis and everyone else. Every team has the capability to overtake the Colts in division but they come up short by a couple of plays here or there. The Texans are probably the most complete team that can match the Colts. In years past, the Titans unseated Indianapolis through their running game and defense. The Jaguars can do it too through that strategy as well but they also have an intensity that they feed off from their Coach, Jack Del Rio.
The Jaguars were criticized for passing up Tim Tebow in the draft. Looking at their draft, they drafted smart by spending four of their picks on defense including Tyson Alualu, defensive tackle from California with the tenth overall pick. By drafting for needs instead of flash with Tebow, the Jaguars recognized that defense was the weak link last year as they lost five of their six games to fall completely out of playoff contention.
Maurice Jones-Drew posted career bests in every major rushing category with 1,391 rushing yards on 312 carries with 15 rushing TDs. Rushing yards was high enough to place him in the top five and rushing touchdowns ranked #2 among NFL running backs. Not only is he an exciting running back to watch, but he is also aware of the situation in games. In the worst fantasy football play since Eagles running back Brian Westbrook against the Cowboys in 2007 In a game last season against the Jets, Jones-Drew made the best play of the game as shown here.
Quarterback David Garrard posted similar statistics to what he posted in 2008. His 3,597 yards, 60.9% completion percentage, 15 TDs vs. 10 INT, and 83.5 rating were good to rank him in the top 10 among AFC quarterbacks.
Receiver Mike Sims-Walker caught 63 passes for 869 yards and 7 touchdowns to lead the Jaguars. The Jaguars are entering their fifth season without a 1,000 yard receiver since Jimmy Smith posted 1,023 yards in 2005. Tight end Mercedes Lewis, despite only catching 32 passes for 538 yards and 2 touchdowns, has proven to be an asset in the Jaguars explosive running game as one of the few tight ends in the NFL brought in strictly for blocking.
Despite fielding a decent team it may not be enough to draw fans to the Gator Bowl and it could lead to the team making an exodus for another market. There have been rumors circulating that the Jaguars are looking to relocate. It is not because the Jaguars have been a poor franchise but the current economic climate hit the Jacksonville area bad. Jacksonville is not that big of a town. In fact, when the league voted to award the city an NFL franchise in 1993, Jacksonville was a shock because it is the 50th largest television market in the United States, its metropolitan area has approximately 1.3 million people, and Florida has two other franchises: Miami and Tampa. The following metropolitan areas do not have a NFL team and have a larger population than Jacksonville: Las Vegas, San Antonio, and of course the big one… Los Angeles. Because people are not spending as much money, it has impacted ticket sales for the team. Several home games failed to sell out last season and resulted in those games not being shown on local television in Jacksonville.
This is a critical year for the Jaguars. Another poor season will probably result in Coach Del Rio being let go. There are also rumblings that there will be a strike in 2011 if the players and owners do not agree to a new collective bargaining agreement (God, I hope not). A strike would doom football in Jacksonville and force the ownership to move to another city.
Overall, on the field the Jaguars are competitive. As stated above, each team other than the Colts in the AFC South have an argument on why they can finish second and be a possible wild card entrant in the playoffs. The Jaguars schedule could set them up to be a surprise team this season. Their bye week takes place at mid-season (exactly at mid-season in Week 9). Beating the Broncos in Week 1 would make people notice them followed by consecutive games against three 2009 playoff teams: at San Diego, and home against the Eagles and Colts. The Jaguars host the Titans in a Monday Night matchup on October 18 between two of the league’s top running backs.
In the final month of the regular season, Jacksonville hosts the Raiders and Redskins in Weeks 14 and 16. In Week 15, they play the Colts and close out the season in Houston; expect both those teams to be making moves for the playoffs, but the Jaguars may throw a wrench into the works.
Out of all the teams that are expected to finish in their division in last place, the Jaguars will be the best team out of the bunch. Not exactly a consolation prize to receive.
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