1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Bears
4. Lions
2. Vikings
3. Bears
4. Lions
GREEN BAY: TITLETOWN IN ‘10?
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers became the first Packers quarterback since Bart Starr in 1966 to post a qualifying quarterback rating above 100. It was also the last time a Packer led the league in passer rating. Bart Starr’s single-season quarterback rating of 105.0 has stood since the Packers first Super Bowl season.
Rodgers also became the first quarterback in the team’s storied history to throw for over 4,000 yards in consecutive seasons since Brett Favre did in 1998-99. His two season passing yard total is the highest among Packers quarterbacks. His 2009 season is the second highest single-season passing yard total.
The Packers were able to achieve a wild card berth with an offense that centered around Rodgers’s arm and the running of Ryan Grant, who was second in the NFC in rushing touchdowns and benefited from a defense that ranked in the top five in total yards (#2), passing yards (#5), and rushing yards (#1). Observers credit the Packers shifting from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4 defense for achieving those high defensive rankings. The standout on this defense is cornerback Charles Woodson, who was in four-way tie for the league leader in interceptions with 9, and a two-way tie for the league leader in pick sixes. Among cornerbacks, Woodson was second in forced fumbles with four and in the top five with 27 passes deflected.
Having a top ranked defense did not help them in the playoffs though. In their playoff game against the Cardinals, the Packers gave up 531 yards of offense, 375 of them through the passing of Future Hall of Famer quarterback Kurt Warner. Even though the Packers were able to come back from a 21-point third quarter deficit and force overtime in an offensive shootout, it was the defense that decided one of the most exciting playoff games in the 2000s.
So… what does 2010 hold for Green Bay?
In order to better protect Rodgers, who tied for first in the NFL for being sacked the most with 50, the Packers drafted offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga in the first round from Iowa. Bulaga was named Big Twelve Ten offensive lineman of the year and is expected to compete with veteran linemen Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton for playing time. It should be noted that the Packers lost defensive end Aaron Kampman via free agency to Jacksonville during the off-season. Even though he posted back-to-back 10+ sack seasons in 2006 and 2007, he was lost to injuries in 2009.
Glancing at their schedule, a 5-0 start is possible as 4 of their first 5 opponents are against teams that finished third or worse in their divisions last season. In weeks 6-9 they face off against the Dolphins, Brett Favre the Vikings, go to New York to play the Jets, and host the Cowboys at Lambeau (doubt it will be -13F that evening…).
After the bye week, the schedule gets difficult with back-to-back road games against Brett Favre Minnesota and Atlanta, followed by hosting the 49ers (I doubt that new family down the block is going to get tickets). In Week 15, they travel to New England for a Sunday Night Game in what could be one of the best quarterback matchups of 2010. Eli Manning comes to Lambeau the day after Christmas and the season finale is against Chicago where the Packers have not posted a winning record against the Bears at home during the Lovie Smith era.
It is possible that they could challenge Brett Favre the Vikings and win the NFC North. I also see that the Packers could play deep into January with the talent they have on offense and defense. The question is whether the Packers offensive line can keep Rodgers from getting hit like he did on the final play of the game against Arizona in the playoffs.
Playing in the Metroplex in February?
The last time the Packers won any post-season game in Dallas: January 1, 1967 when they won their fourth NFL Championship in the Vince Lombardi era and the right to represent the league in the First AFL-NFL World Championship Game.
MINNESOTA: THIS COULD BE THE LAST TIME…
Wait… Favre’s back?
Brett Favre returns for his final season in the NFL for the fourth time for his twentieth NFL season. 2009 was his best season statistically. It was the first time in Favre’s career that he posted a regular season quarterback rating above 100. His passing yard total was his highest since 1998. The last time Favre threw for more than 30 touchdowns in a season was in 2004. His completion percentage was his best ever. And the most remarkable, Favre’s regular season interception total was the lowest since being a starting quarterback.
In the NFC playoffs, Brett Favre achieved a first: he defeated the Cowboys in the playoffs for the first time in his long career.
The presence of Brett Favre turned the Vikings from a team barely making the playoffs as a division champion to being among the teams in the hunt for the Lombardi trophy. Favre’s presence placed less focus on their running game and more on their passing game. Rookie Percy Harvin led all rookie receivers in receptions with 60 and tied for first among NFL rookies in reception yards and touchdown catches. For that performance, Harvin was named the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of The Year. Receiver Sidney Rice posted his first 1,000 yard receiving and 75+ catch season in his career. His production will be missed due to a hip injury suffered in the NFC Championship game that Rice opted to let heal on its own. Best case scenario, Rice will miss half the season.
Even though Adrian Peterson gained 1,383 yards on the ground which was good enough to rank #5 in the NFL among rushers, he led the league in rushing touchdowns with 18 and posted his best receiving yards for a season with 436. His total yards from scrimmage was tops in the NFC and #3 in the league.
Defensive end Jared Allen led the NFC in sacks with 14.5. That was 30% of the team’s total sacks, which was #1 in the league. The Vikings defense was ranked #6 in the league which was mainly helped by their run defense which ranked #2 in the NFL. The Vikings allowed only 87.1 yards per game on the ground, and only one running back gained over 100 yards rushing on their defense (Jonathan Stewart, Carolina, Week 15).
Despite all the successes of Brett Favre the Vikings, that is not how their fans will remember last season.
Favre’s interception in last season’s NFC Championship game came in a long line of Vikings collapses.
Let’s see…
There was the 1987 NFC Title Game. Somehow the 8-7 Vikings (the 1987 season was played with a 15-game season due to the strike. Vikings were 0-3 in replacement games) were able to get into the playoffs and make a good run by blowing out the Saints, upsetting heavily favored San Francisco, and taking the Redskins to the brink in the NFC Championship Game.
Kicker Gary Anderson’s perfect season ending in the 1998 NFC Title Game against the Dirty Bird Falcons.
Then getting blown out in 2000 NFC Title Game against the Giants. (see Bill Simmons’s Levels of Losing, Level IX: The Full-Fledged Butt-Kicking) How does a team with Randy Moss and Cris Carter at the receiver positions and Daunte Culpepper fail to score a point? Even I am STILL scratching my head after that game and it took place almost 10 years ago.
In 2003, the Vikings won the NFC North with a dramatic 17-12 win in the last game of the season against a lowly Cardinals team that came up short in its comeback effort well… I’ll let the video tape explain it…
And of course, last year’s NFC Title Game
Sorry, but Paul Allen’s radio call is priceless.
The last time the Vikings won the NFL Championship was 1969.
No they weren’t! It was the Chiefs!
What I said is technically a correct statement.
They were the last NFL Champions before the merger between the NFL and AFL. They didn’t win the Super Bowl that season. In Super Bowl IV Coach Hank Stram told his team to…
And when the opportunity came…
The 70s were not kind to the Vikings either. Despite winning the NFC Title 3 times, they were run over by Larry Csonka in Super Bowl VIII, gave the Steelers their first Super Bowl points and a lead they never gave up in Super Bowl IX, and were black and blued by the Silver and Black in Super Bowl XI.
Is it possible that the Vikings will hoist their first Super Bowl trophy in Arlington, TX on February 6, 2011?
I do see the Vikings making the playoffs, but it is going to be difficult for them to repeat as division champions because the Packers are a better team plus their schedule does not do them any favors.
You also know that teams are watching clips of the NFC Title game about how to stop the Vikings.
Especially this clip.
After their off week in Week 4, the Vikings face five 2009 playoff teams in consecutive weeks, three of them on the road. It is during that stretch that the Vikings will be without receiver Percy Harvin. NBC got the option of covering the first Vikings-Packers matchup in Week 7 when they travel to Lambeau, while Fox gets the rematch in the Triple H Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome in Week 11 before Thanksgiving. Week 8 is a battle of MVP quarterbacks between Three-Time League MVP Brett Favre and Two-Time Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady in a late kickoff from Foxboro. Depending if Harvin is healthy, at the earliest he could return for the MVP matchup at New England.
Four of their final five games are indoors. The most glaring is the Week 16 contest at Philadelphia. Remember all Sunday games are subject to flex scheduling in Weeks 11-17 and if the league should desire to move that game to a later kickoff than the scheduled time of Noon (CT), that might not go well for Favre. Who remembers the 2007 NFC Title Game? Anyone? Anyone?
The Vikings have history to overcome (and a bad omen too), but if the Saints can overcome their tortured past and win the Super Bowl, then so can Minnesota.
CHICAGO: LOVIE SMITH ON THE HOT SEAT
In 2009, Chicago strayed away from the reliable formula that made their team a champion in years past.
Linebacker + Running Back = NFL Title
The Bears traded for quarterback Jay Cutler. He was praised as the second coming of the Bears great Sid Luckman. It has been SIXTY years and Luckman is STILL the Bears career leader in passing yards and passing touchdowns. Luckman’s single season passing touchdown total from 1943 (the NFL played 10 games that year) stood until it was broken by Erik Kramer in 1995 (under a 16 game format since 1978). If you looked at the stats, no Chicago Bears quarterback has thrown for more than 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns in a season.
Cutler’s first season in Chicago was a mixed result. He became the first Bears quarterback to throw for over 3,500 yards since Erik Kramer’s 1995 season. Cutler achieved the highest ranking in passing yards in the NFC (7th) for a Bears quarterback since Kramer ranked 6th in the NFC in 1995. Cutler also set the Bears single season record for pass completions (336) and attempts (555) and became the third Bears quarterback to throw for over 25 touchdowns in season (Kramer with 29 in 1995, Luckman with 28 in 1943).
Now the bad…
Cutler led the league in pass interceptions with 26. Nine different Chicago quarterbacks have thrown for more than 20 interceptions in a season (Johnny Lujack did it twice in 1949 and 1950). The single season holder for interceptions thrown? Sid Luckman with 31 in 1947.
Surprisingly the Bears’ running game has gone backwards over the past three seasons. In 2006 when they last appeared in the Super Bowl, they were ranked 15th in rushing. Since then the Bears have dropped to the bottom five in rushing yards. Matt Forte, who ranked 7th in the NFL in rushing yards in 2008, dropped out of the top ten in 2009.
The Bears have a lot of speed at receiver with return specialist Devin Hester and the discovery of Johnny Knox.
However, they do not have consistent #1 threat at receiver. Devin Hester led the team in receiving yards with a mediocre 757 yards while tight end Greg Olsen was the team leader in receptions with 60.
Some key coaching changes were made during the offseason. First was the signing of former Vikings head coach Mike Tice as their new offensive line coach. The biggest coaching signing was Mike Martz as their new offensive coordinator, who earlier this century led the St. Louis Rams “Greatest Show on Turf” offense. Hopefully with Martz as their offensive coordinator, Cutler will throw more touchdowns and fewer interceptions.
The Bears defense is still led by linebacker Brian Urlacher (part of that Bears winning formula) who is the team’s all time leader in tackles with 816. Urlacher is looking forward to returning to play after suffering a dislocated wrist he suffered early in the 2009 season. During the offseason, the Bears were able to sign defensive end Julius Peppers to 6 year contract worth $91.5 million. Peppers is the Panthers all-time leader in sacks with 81. He has recorded more than 10 sacks in every season that he has played in except for two. Even though he plays defensive end, Peppers has picked off six passes, returning two for scores. He has also been effective on special teams with blocking eight field goals.
The first part of the schedule could set the Bears up for success as five of their first seven games are against teams that did not make the playoffs in 2009. They do play a historically significant game at Miami on a Thursday in November (wish it was Monday). However, their final four games are brutal as they take on the Patriots, go on the road to Minnesota, host the Jets, and close out the season at Green Bay.
This appears to be a make or break year for head coach Lovie Smith. Despite posting a 7-5 record against the hated Packers and ranking third on the Bears all-time list for wins as a head coach (#2 Ditka, #1 Papa Bear), whether the Bears make the playoffs or not will determine who else will be let go.
DETROIT: ONLY ONE PLACE TO GO
It is almost hard to believe that the Lions were once good.
No… not in 1991 when they last won a playoff game.
You have to go back to 1957 when they last won the NFL Title.
(Laughing)
No, it’s true. The Lions stomped the Browns (the team of the 1950s) in that season’s championship game, 59-14.
(More laughing)
In fact, they had two big comebacks in that season: in Week 4 against the Unitas led Colts where they came back from down 27-3 to win 31-27 and in the Western Conference playoff against the 49ers.
(Oh you’re serious?)
The Lions have not experienced that level of post season success in over half a century. Some believe that the Lions were cursed when they traded away Bobby Layne.
The franchise is slowly recovering from their disastrous 2008 season. Last season the team showed signs of improvement by winning two games.
In last season’s draft, the Lions spent their first pick on offense by selecting quarterback Matthew Stafford who led all rookie quarterbacks with 13 passing touchdowns and averaged 226.7 yards passing per game.
In the 2010 draft, the Lions went defense with their first pick by selecting the Heisman Trophy finalist defensive tackle from Nebraska Ndamukong Suh. He was named Big 12 Championship Game MVP in the Cornhuskers 12-10 upset of #2 Texas by sacking quarterback Colt McCoy on the game’s final play by recording 12 tackles (7 for losses, Nebraska single-game record) and 4-1/2 sacks in a 13-12 loss. Shu’s presence should help the Lions improve from 29th in the league in sacks. Also, they re-signed cornerback Dré Bly who posted two of his three best regular season interception totals when he was in Detroit from 2003-06.
To help improve their running game and take the pressure off of Stafford, they drafted running back Jahvid Best from California who was a potential Heisman Trophy candidate going into 2009, but his season was cut short by a concussion that caused him to miss the remainder of the season.
The Lions will be better in 2010 than they were in 2009 and DEFINITELY better than in 2008. However, it will be difficult for them to rise out of the NFC Central’s North’s basement because they play against the NFC East and AFC East in 2010.
Looking at their schedule they COULD catch a FEW breaks and maybe finish .500. Now that would be exceeding expectations. Going 5-11 would be a success for this Lions team.
The only way the Lions are going to play in the Metroplex on February 6, 2011…
And that is if you play EVERY game and set the A.I. to REALLY, REALLY easy.
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