Before I reveal my final electoral college prediction, I cannot stress enough how important downballot races are. What happens in your state capitol matters; probably more than what happens in our nation’s capital.
Again, to quote Omar Navarez, “Obama’s going to give me (a gay Latino) my equality. But he ain’t going to fix the roads in Dallas.”
How did Colorado, Oregon, and Washington institute a mail-in ballot system.
was magic. Because they had legislators who believed in making it easier
for people to vote. Oregon has automatic voter registration which I am hoping
we can bring to Colorado.
On the opposite side, look at the list of bad legislation that is coming from certain states and look at which political party controls that state’s legislature and governorship. Voter ID, limits to polling locations, right to work laws, anti-abortion laws, anti-LGBT legislation, and so many others.
I have attended LGBT Lobby Days since 2013. My first one was in Texas and every other one has been in Colorado. After the 2014 elections, Democrats maintained control of the state house with a smaller majority while Republicans were able to flip the state senate but it was by one seat.
This dynamic has resulted in pro-LGBT legislation being passed by the state house but when it reaches the state senate, it dies in committee.
And this is not limited to pro-LGBT legislation. This was a pattern repeated many times over. Democrats passed legislation that was favorable to their supporters while Republicans blocked it.
There is an opportunity for Democrats in Colorado to regain the legislature and have Governor Hickenlooper sign some good legislation that would benefit the state before he leaves office in January 2019.
It is very likely that Democrats will hold the state house and possibly increase their majority in that chamber. Claiming 40 seats is not out of the realm of possible but I think Democrats will have 36 seats in the state house.
The state senate is a daunting challenge. Not only do Democrats have to flip one seat, but they also have to defend competitive seats. The seat they are eying is the seat held by State Senator Laura Woods (SD-19, R). The seat is located in the western Denver suburbs primarily in Jefferson County.
The previous office holder, Rachel Zenzinger, lost this seat by a handful of votes in 2014 and is eying to retake this seat.
National politics will likely play a role in this race. Woods is an unapologetic Trump supporter. She addressed a Trump rally in Golden in late October.
Republicans have put all of their efforts to try to hold the state senate due to their top two races in this state. Trump is not going to carry Colorado due to that the demographics are unfavorable to him, and senate candidate Darryl Glenn has been almost absent on the campaign trail and on television.
SD-19 will be a close race and I anticipate that Zenzinger will be in the state senate come January.
I foresee Democrats claiming a 19-16 advantage in the state senate and thus having unified control of the Colorado General Assembly.