2016
was going to be a tough year for Republicans defending the gains made the last
time these seats were up six years earlier. In 2010, Republicans won senate
seats in Florida, Indiana, Illinois, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
Wisconsin as well as re-election of incumbents in Arizona, Iowa, Missouri, and
North Carolina. Democrats were successful in holding seats in Colorado and
Nevada.
Why
are these states mentioned?
With
the exception of Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina, Obama won the
remaining 7 states twice in his presidential runs. While Indiana and North
Carolina were Obama states in 2008, both states were in the Republican column
in 2012 though North Carolina is trending more towards battleground while
Indiana has reverted back to a reliably red state.
Here
are my picks for some key senate races to keep an eye on while watching the
election coverage on Tuesday night. For
the purposes of full disclosure, here is a list of senators I donated money to
this cycle.
CALIFORNIA BLUES
With
the retirement of Senator Barbara Boxer, my pick in this race will be the
Democrat.
The
question is who.
California
instituted a primary election where the top-two vote-getters for
non-presidential elections that took effect four years ago. In June, the
top-two vote getters were California Attorney General Kamala Harris and
Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, both Democrats. This race has effectively
rendered the Republican Party moot in California for the foreseeable future.
The
race has had its moments where during a debate Sanchez dabbed.
http://www.trbimg.com/img-57f5c431/turbine/la-me-kamala-harris-vs-loretta-sanchez-debate--010
Polling
has consistently shown that Harris is leading. I don’t see anything that would
dramatically change the outcome. I predict that when the polls close in
California, Kamala Harris will be the
next senator from California.
IT’S A JUNGLE OUT THERE
Louisiana
has a unique feature of their elections where everyone runs on election day and
if no one gets 50%, the top two advance to a head-to-head in December.
When
Senator David Vitter announced his retirement after losing the Louisiana
Gubernatorial a year ago, a total of
TWENTY-FOUR candidates filed to run: 8 Democrats, 7 Republicans, 2
Libertarians, 3 Independents, 2 identifying as other...
And
David Duke
http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.2544762.1456502351!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_1200/david-duke-prison.jpg
The
former Klan leader who won a seat in the Louisiana legislature and then later
ran for Louisiana governor in 1991. The national Republican Party including
George H.W. Bush and Lee Atwater disavowed Duke and encouraged voters to vote
for the Edwin Edwards.
Duke
was inspired to run for this seat due to the presidential candidacy of Donald
Trump. The Republican candidate has not disavowed Duke.
Duke
met a poling threshold and qualified to participate in a debate at Dillard
University, a historically black college and university. It went as well as you
expected.
The
auditorium was empty
https://tribwgno.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/debate1.jpg?quality=85&strip=all
And
let’s not forget his adoring fans… no, wait, these
are protestors condemning him and the university for allowing him to
participate.
Trump
won the presidential primary back in the spring and will likely carry the state
on Tuesday. While polling is showing that
the runoff will be between John Neely Kennedy (R) and Caroline Fayard (D), it
is reassuring that Duke polled at 3% which is way too high.
There will be a runoff and Kennedy is
favored.
TOUGH TASK
For
Ann Kirkpatrick in Arizona and Patty Judge in Iowa it was going to be a
difficult task to unseat long serving incumbent presidents.
Arizona
at the presidential level is looking like a battleground in part due to the
Trump candidacy. Trump has made Arizona a regular stopping point that he was
asked to not come back again. This has mobilized the long dormant Latino voting
bloc in the state to mobilize.
Hillary
Clinton, Michelle Obama, and Bernie Sanders have stumped in this state. Clinton
made a quick stop in Phoenix after a Nevada campaign event and it is impressive
to the point that maybe Arizona is a battleground state this cycle. If not, it
is certainly an emerging one that both parties will fight for in future
elections.
Meanwhile
in the Arizona Senate race, John McCain has threaded a fine needle. He was able
to win his senate primary without upsetting his party’s base who strongly supported
Trump in the presidential primary. Then after winning the primary he distanced
himself from Trump due to the revelation of the Access Hollywood tape.
Yeah…
it wasn’t after Trump said you weren’t a hero for being captured…
Iowa
was going to be tough. Senator Chuck Grassley is up for his sixth term and has
drawn criticism for blocking President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee from
receiving a hearing before the judiciary committee. Despite this, many
handicappers have kept this race in the likely to strong Republican category.
These
were going to be tough seats to flip despite Iowa went for Obama twice and the
emergence of Arizona as a battleground. Grassley
by a comfortable margin while McCain may sweat it out but should win
re-election.
DISTANCING
Senator
Rob Portman might pull of the successful feat of distancing himself from his
party’s nominee along with the red tilt that Ohio is exhibiting this cycle.
Former Ohio Governor Ted Strickland has not cracked 45% in recent polling. Barring a major surprise, Portman is
re-elected and sets himself up a favorite in the post-2016 electoral landscape.
A MISSED OPPORTUNITY?
Given
the turnout and the potential demographic makeup in Florida by analyzing the
ballots received, it is looking favorable for Hillary Clinton to carry the
state. The senate race however paints a different prospect and could leave
Democrats kicking themselves on election night.
Senator
Marco Rubio decided to forego his senate re-election to run for president.
After losing the Florida primary, Rubio dropped out and looked like he was
going to be one of the longest lame ducks in the Senate. Prior to the June
filing deadline, Rubio announced that he was going to run for re-election.
Like
Portman in Ohio, Rubio has managed to shake off the Trump label and the
accusations that he is only running for re-election in order to position
himself for his next presidential run.
Rubio
has an average polling lead of 3.4 points according to Talking Points Memo, but
a recent Survey Monkey poll shows a tightening race with Patrick Murphy tying
him at 49.
Could
Murphy pull off the win?
In
2012, Senator Ben Nelson comfortably won re-election while Obama claimed the
state’s 29 electoral votes two days after Election Day. Given this history of
the presidential and senatorial elections varying, it is possible there will be
voters splitting their tickets between these two races.
Obama
at a stump speech in Florida rallied attendees to not only vote for Clinton but
also vote for Murphy. That might not be enough since the DSCC pulled
advertising for Murphy from the state only to just recently reengage during the
early vote period. Senator Chuck Shumer has been criticized for continuing to
pour money into his re-election bid, where he will be comfortably re-elected in
New York, and not sending it down south.
I’m
not certain of the strength of the Florida Democrats coordinated campaign, but
if it is strong it can overcome this oversight. While it is not impossible for
Murphy to pull off the win given Florida’s voter demographics, it is looking like Marco Rubio will
survive.
PICK ONE
Democrats
will win one of these seats. Either Evan Bayh in his comeback bid or this guy:
These
are tough races in reliably red states.
Kander unseats Roy Blunt while Republicans
hold the seat in Indiana
SAFELY IN REACH
The
numbers out of Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin appear
promising for Democratic candidates in these states.
Jon Ralston
reports that Nevada is likely going for Clinton due to building a strong
firewall in the state.
Six years ago, Harry Reid was expected to lose his senate race. As pointed out
by Rachel Maddow in her October 2010 interview with him, Reid had a strong
in-state GOTV operation while his opponent had outside groups like Karl Rove to
assist with their efforts.
It
is looking like the Reid Machine is making one last performance and not only
will keep the seat in Democratic hands for his successor, Catherine Cortez
Masto, but could save the country from Trump.
In
Colorado, as I noted in my
endorsement of Michael Bennett, the state Republican Party selected
someone whose politics are not in line with the political makeup of the state.
Pennsylvania
might be the closest races of these groups of states. 9 of the last 10 polls
according to Talking Points Memo poll tracker show Katie McGinty either tied or
in the lead. The only poll that shows her trailing the incumbent, Pat Toomey,
is by 1 and was recently released on Sunday.
Tammy
Duckworth is an overall badass. I said this in 2012 and I will modify it for
2016: I look forward to seeing her walk from the House chamber and into the
Senate to take the oath as senator.
Surprisingly
Russ Feingold is a much closer race than expected to reclaim the
In
order of election ease: Bennett (by
possibly a double-digit landslide, unheard of today in modern Colorado
political history), Duckworth, Matso, Feingold, and McGinty
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
These
races could last into the night as well as determining overall control of the
US Senate.
In
New Hampshire, Governor Maggie Hassan is facing off against incumbent Senator
Kelly Ayotte. This was expected to be a closely watched race and certainly
lived up to expectations. In an October debate, Senator Ayotte
said that Donald Trump was a good role model for her children.
I
beg to differ.
In
North Carolina, the state has emerged as a battleground for all three high
profile statewide contests: the race for the state’s highly coveted 15
electoral votes, senate, and gubernatorial.
Obama
won North Carolina in 2008 by a slim margin but lost the state in 2012 by 2
points. Governor Pat McCrory signing the anti-LGBT HB-2 has led to economic
boycotts including the NBA moving the 2017 All-Star Game out of Charlotte. Senator Richard
Burr joked about Hillary Clinton being shot.
Besides
that, there is another reason why I personally want Burr out of the senate: he
said veterans and their advocacy groups don’t have their priorities in order.
Well,
I never forgot those comments and I was damn proud to donate some money to
Deborah Ross’ campaign.
All
those three races in North Carolina feed off each other. Since the presidential
is the top, that means it will help the downballots. The unpopularity of Pat
McCrory over HB-2 helps his Democratic opponent Roy Cooper as well as helps the
other two high profile offices.
Three
of the last five polls recorded by Talking Points Memo have Ross with a lead.
The average of polls shows her with a 0.2% lead.
A split seems likely, but I could see both
candidates win both races.
Democrats
might end up with at least 50 seats in the senate (and with Tim Kaine as
vice-president) full control of that chamber.
FINAL RESULT: Democrats
52-48
No comments:
Post a Comment