Tonight
is the first round of the Republican Nomination with the Iowa Caucus.
My
prediction:
Romney 21%, Paul 18%, Santorum 17%
Romney 21%, Paul 18%, Santorum 17%
Top 3 within 5% of each other
Perry 10%
RATIONALE
We have seen the sharp rise and slow fall of many Republican candidates for president. Donald Trump, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich…
There
is one candidate that has been holding steady at around 22%...
Mitt Romney, who ran for the Republican Nomination four years ago, the former Massachusetts governor from 2003-07, CEO for the 2002 Winter Olympics Organizing Committee, co-founder of Bain Capital, and ran against Ted Kennedy for the US Senate in 1994.
Mitt Romney, who ran for the Republican Nomination four years ago, the former Massachusetts governor from 2003-07, CEO for the 2002 Winter Olympics Organizing Committee, co-founder of Bain Capital, and ran against Ted Kennedy for the US Senate in 1994.
Based on
what I have read and
observed from the sideshow that is the Republican Nomination, Romney is shaping
up to finish in the top three in Iowa and establishing himself as the front
runner for his party’s nomination.
Though
if I was a Republican, I would be concerned about his inability to rise above
25, 30, the next threshold. Every time that a candidate has risen and fallen,
that support has gone to another candidate who has experienced the same fate.
And now we are at the point where the party is deciding who their nominee not just
for President, but who will be representing their party’s ideals in the
November general election.
Intrade has Mitt Romney at an 80%
chance of winning the Republican Nomination for President. Again, he has yet to
rise above 30% support in primary polling. Now of course, I would expect the
number to rise as more candidates drop out of the race, but is that number
going to rise because Republicans feel energized about Romney or they are
begrudgingly accepting that he is their candidate?
I think
Iowa will tell that. If Romney roars to victory, then he will easily cruise to
the nomination in Tampa that is taking place late in the summer. However
(comma) that scenario is very unlikely.
Another
candidate that participated in 2008 is seeing the possibility that they could
win Iowa. Texas congressman Ron Paul who had a long career as an OB-GYN and
represents the libertarian wing of his party appears to be within striking
distance of winning the state.
Paul’s
message of anti-government and foreign policy isolationism has struck a chord
with voters. He has taken a page from Obama’s 2008 Playbook and learned the
lessons of previous campaigns. Paul has instructed his supporters to
shave and not tweet and they are even holding dry runs for caucuses
tonight. It is troubling that there are his newsletters from the 1990s that
express extreme racist, homophobic, and misogynist views. He even has the
support of David Duke, the former grand wizard of the Ku Klux Klan who ran
for governor of Louisiana in 1991.
Finally,
we get to the recent Republican flavor of the month: Rick Santorum, the Senator
from Pennsylvania who is representative of his party’s social conservative
views.
Instead
of Romney benefiting from Gingrich’s slow fall, there has been a Santorum surge
forming, a bubble if you can call it. Eventually the bubble will pop and there
will be another mess from a failed campaign.
Now,
who drops out? I think Bachmann is very likely to drop out but I think it won’t
happen until between New Hampshire and South Carolina. Along with Governor Rick
Perry, those two are going to need South Carolina to move on to the next round.
They may do well with the evangelical base there, but as of the most
recent polling from December 2011 showed that Gingrich has a double digit
lead.
So,
conclusion…
It will be a close race. Bachmann and Huntsman will have some decisions to make as whether it is best to continue on or close up shop. Perry, like Don Quixote charging the windmills, will continue his miserable pursuit to the nomination.
It will be a close race. Bachmann and Huntsman will have some decisions to make as whether it is best to continue on or close up shop. Perry, like Don Quixote charging the windmills, will continue his miserable pursuit to the nomination.
Each of
the top three will claim victory in some way, but the true winner in all this
will be this guy…
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