Sunday, January 21, 2018

WHAT IS AT STAKE



It is now inside 300 days from the 2018 election and less than 34 months until the 2020 election.

Whenever there is a national election, it is said that this the most important election ever.

That is how I feel about these next two national elections.



This upcoming midterm is likely going to be the most consequential midterm in our collective lifetime

For starters, Congress

Congress is supposed to be a co-equal branch of government as the Constitution’s framers planed it to be. Instead, this Congress has shown to be inept in providing the necessary check on this president. As long as Republicans are in control of Congress, they will continue to be lackeys for this administration.

They are purposely trying to hinder, if not discredit, the Robert Mueller investigation into whether the Trump presidential campaign received assistance from Russia. It is looking more and more likely that yes, the campaign colluded with a foreign government in order to discredit Hillary Clinton and win the 2016 presidential election.

Democrats need to flip 24 seats to regain control of the House and flip 2 seats in order to change power in the Senate. Those will both be tall orders given how congressional districts are drawn in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The senate map is a bit more favorable since Doug Jones’ victory in Alabama last month to shrink the Republican margin in the senate to 51-49 but Democrats will have to defend seats in places where Trump won huge such as Indiana, Missouri, Montana, and North Dakota in addition to winning a special election in Minnesota due to Al Franken’s resignation over sexual harassment accusations and winning senate races in Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, and Texas.

At this moment, Democrats are enjoying a double-digit advantage in the generic congressional ballot and have outperformed expectations in various special elections across the country.

As of now the only thing halting the goals of this administration is the court system having struck down Trump’s ban on Muslims entering the country and rescinding Obama’s DACA immigration order but even I am pessimistic about our federal judiciary.

All those appointments that Senator Mitch McConnell (KY, R) kept open during Obama’s presidency? Well, those are now going to be filled by stooges that have next to no knowledge of the law. The Republicans stole a Supreme Court seat that rightfully should have been filled by Obama, but McConnell used some bullshit reasoning about 2016 being an election year and that the American people should get to weigh in.

If there is a Supreme Court opening in 2020 with a Democratic senate, I hope that whoever is the majority leader uses that same line of reasoning with Trump then while bumping James Brown’s Payback.

There are going to be some high-profile rulings concerning legislative redistricting that are going to be announced between now and June, specifically the Wisconsin redistricting case, and many court observers expect it could come down to how Justice Anthony Kennedy rules.

Speaking of Justice Kennedy, he might not be on the court much longer. If his seat is vacated during this presidency and with a Republican controlled senate, conservatives will have a lock on the Supreme Court for another generation. Expect another series of rulings that could further erode the social safety net, civil rights and liberties, whatever remains of campaign finance law, and a likely repeal of Roe which makes The Handmaid’s Tale, a story about a fictional dystopia all the more likely real.

Currently all of the focus is on national politics, but if there is any sign of a Democratic wave it will be in what happens in state elections.

Republicans have an edge in state capitols. They control 33 out of 50 governorships and 67 out of 99 state legislative chambers. Eight years ago, in addition to losing control of the House, Democrats were effectively shutout of the redistricting process in the states I mentioned above leading to not just unfavorable legislative maps but also some really terrible ideas such as North Carolina’s bathroom bill, voter ID laws in several states, loosening restrictions on firearms in Texas, and passage of several laws that address restricting abortion.

But these next two national elections – 2018 and 2020 – are more than just who holds control in whatever legislative body and executive office. It is about what kind of country we are going to be.

This country is not perfect; believe me, there are many sins that this country has and every generation tries to make atonement for past sins but faces fierce opposition from those that are afraid of the change to improve America’s standing and to make it live up to the ideals that this country was founded on.

Surrendering the fight for those ideas to Trump, his acolytes, the Republican Party, and those committed to hijacking progress at every possible turn is an insult to those that believed in and in many instances, sacrificed their lives for those ideas of equality, opportunity, and the many variations of freedom. America, the physical country, would continue to exist, but the idea of America would fade away.

Those are the stakes and it is up to every American who believes in those ideas to answer our nation’s cries.


No comments: