It
is now inside 300 days from the 2018 election and less than 34 months until the
2020 election.
Whenever
there is a national election, it is said that this the most important election
ever.
That
is how I feel about these next two national elections.
This
upcoming midterm is likely going to be the most consequential midterm in our
collective lifetime
For
starters, Congress
Congress
is supposed to be a co-equal branch of government as the Constitution’s framers
planed it to be. Instead, this Congress has shown to be inept in providing the
necessary check on this president. As long as Republicans are in control of
Congress, they will continue to be lackeys for this administration.
They
are purposely trying to hinder, if not discredit, the Robert Mueller
investigation into whether the Trump presidential campaign received assistance
from Russia. It is looking more and more likely that yes, the campaign colluded
with a foreign government in order to discredit Hillary Clinton and win the
2016 presidential election.
Democrats
need to flip 24 seats to regain control of the House and flip 2 seats in order
to change power in the Senate. Those will both be tall orders given how
congressional districts are drawn in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North
Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The senate map is
a bit more favorable since Doug Jones’ victory in Alabama last month to shrink
the Republican margin in the senate to 51-49 but Democrats will have to defend
seats in places where Trump won huge such as Indiana, Missouri, Montana, and
North Dakota in addition to winning a special election in Minnesota due to Al
Franken’s resignation over sexual harassment accusations and winning senate
races in Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, and Texas.
At
this moment, Democrats are enjoying a double-digit advantage in the generic
congressional ballot and have outperformed expectations in various special
elections across the country.
As
of now the only thing halting the goals of this administration is the court
system having struck down Trump’s ban on Muslims entering the country and
rescinding Obama’s DACA immigration order but even I am pessimistic about our
federal judiciary.
All
those appointments that Senator Mitch McConnell (KY, R) kept open during
Obama’s presidency? Well, those are now going to be filled by stooges that have
next to no knowledge of the law. The Republicans stole a Supreme Court seat
that rightfully should have been filled by Obama, but McConnell used some
bullshit reasoning about 2016 being an election year and that the American
people should get to weigh in.
If
there is a Supreme Court opening in 2020 with a Democratic senate, I hope that
whoever is the majority leader uses that same line of reasoning with Trump then
while bumping James Brown’s Payback.
There
are going to be some high-profile rulings concerning legislative redistricting
that are going to be announced between now and June, specifically the Wisconsin
redistricting case, and many court observers expect it could come down to how
Justice Anthony Kennedy rules.
Speaking
of Justice Kennedy, he might not be on the court much longer. If his seat is
vacated during this presidency and with a Republican controlled senate,
conservatives will have a lock on the Supreme Court for another generation.
Expect another series of rulings that could further erode the social safety
net, civil rights and liberties, whatever remains of campaign finance law, and
a likely repeal of Roe which makes The Handmaid’s Tale, a story about a
fictional dystopia all the more likely real.
Currently
all of the focus is on national politics, but if there is any sign of a
Democratic wave it will be in what happens in state elections.
Republicans
have an edge in state capitols. They control 33 out of 50 governorships and 67
out of 99 state legislative chambers. Eight years ago, in addition to losing
control of the House, Democrats were effectively shutout of the redistricting
process in the states I mentioned above leading to not just unfavorable
legislative maps but also some really terrible ideas such as North Carolina’s
bathroom bill, voter ID laws in several states, loosening restrictions on
firearms in Texas, and passage of several laws that address restricting
abortion.
But
these next two national elections – 2018 and 2020 – are more than just who holds
control in whatever legislative body and executive office. It is about what
kind of country we are going to be.
This
country is not perfect; believe me, there are many sins that this country has
and every generation tries to make atonement for past sins but faces fierce opposition
from those that are afraid of the change to improve America’s standing and to
make it live up to the ideals that this country was founded on.
Surrendering
the fight for those ideas to Trump, his acolytes, the Republican Party, and
those committed to hijacking progress at every possible turn is an insult to those
that believed in and in many instances, sacrificed their lives for those ideas of
equality, opportunity, and the many variations of freedom. America, the physical
country, would continue to exist, but the idea of America would fade away.
Those
are the stakes and it is up to every American who believes in those ideas to
answer our nation’s cries.
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