2017 NFL SEASON: WILD CARD ROUND

Here is an expanded explanation for my wild card picks as explained from a previous post.

Times are MT

TITANS AT CHIEFS, SATURDAY 2:30PM ABC/ESPN

To sum up both teams’ seasons, I see missed opportunities.

For the Chiefs, it was an opportunity to establish themselves as the best in the AFC. Kansas City began the season with an opening night 42-27 upset win over the defending champion Patriots on the road. Kansas City started the season 5-0 before losing to the Steelers. It was the start of a stretch where the Chiefs went on to lose 6 of their next 7.

The Chiefs recovered to win their final four games and win the division. Had the Chiefs not had their midseason slump, they likely would be playing next week and not in the wild card round.

Kansas City certainly has a claim to being one of the best teams in the AFC. Quarterback Alex Smith had his first 4,000-yard passing season and had a career high 26 touchdown passes. Since coming from the 49ers in 2013, Smith has had his career revived. In his seven years in San Francisco, he threw for 14,280 yards, 81 touchdowns vs. 63 interceptions, 59.3% completion rate, and made the playoffs twice. Compared to his five seasons with the Chiefs, Smith has been to the playoffs all but one season, threw for 17,608 yards

Rookie running back Karim Hunt led the league in rushing and ended up third in total scrimmage yards. Travis Kelce led all tight ends in receptions and was one of two tight ends to post 1,000-yard receiving. The other was the Patriots Rob Gronkowski.

For the Titans, the season started 2-3 that included a Week 3 win at home over the Seahawks where running back DeMarco Murray ran for 115 yards and a touchdown while quarterback Marcus Mariota threw for 225 yards and 2 touchdowns.

On Monday Night in Week 6, the Titans scored 21 fourth quarter points to put division rival Indianapolis away in a 36-22 win and followed it up with a 12-9 road win over winless Cleveland as part of a four game winning streaks that was followed by a three-game losing streak to the Cardinals, 49ers, and playoff bound Rams by a combined 11 points likely cost them their chance to host a home playoff game since the 2008 season.

Tennessee ended the season by completing the season sweep of division champion Jacksonville last Sunday in their home finale.

Even though the Titans have 3 players that recorded 6 or more sacks and safety Kevin Byard intercepted 8 passes, I am not sure their defense can stop Kansas City’s offense. They will also miss DeMarco Murray who has a knee injury. Mariota’s 13 touchdown vs. 15 interception performance does not inspire confidence either.

CHIEFS 24, TITANS 10

FALCONS AT RAMS, SATURDAY 6PM NBC

Last season the Falcons and Rams met in Los Angeles and it was no contest. The game was over by the first quarter as Atlanta cruised to a 42-14 win. The Rams were one of the lowest scoring teams in the league while the Falcons ended up as the NFC 2-seed and made the franchise’s second Super Bowl appearance.

And then 28-3…

The Rams are now one of the league’s best scoring teams having scored at least 28 points in 8 games, having gone 7-1 in those games. Their only loss was at home to the Eagles.

This is a scary good offense, mainly because they find ways to get running back Todd Gurley the ball either by running or passing. Don’t forget that Wade Phillips, the architect of the Broncos Super Bowl 50 winning defense, is their defensive coordinator. The Rams could set themselves up for a deep playoff run with this combination.

The Falcons have the offensive capability to keep up with the Rams, but they only scored at least 28 points 4 times having won all 4 games. The team is playoff tested with quarterback Matt Ryan under center. Receiver Julio Jones could give the Rams secondary problems and he has the capability to post huge numbers.

This is the first Rams home playoff game in Los Angeles in nearly 40 years. It will certainly be a different result than the last time these two teams met.

RAMS 36, FALCONS 31

BILLS AT JAGUARS, SUNDAY 11AM CBS

Most people don’t know about these teams because they did not get a lot of nationally televised games. Both teams had a total of two national appearances; the Jaguars Week 3 destruction of the Ravens in London and the Bills Week 9 loss at the Jets.

The Jaguars only appeared in the late Sunday doubleheader window 3 times but were overshadowed by other games in that slot. The Bills only late Sunday doubleheader game was their Week 17 win at Miami that coincided with other games that helped them clinch the AFC’s last playoff spot.

Jacksonville has lived up to the name Sacksonville having led the league in 55 quarterback sacks. They are first in fewest passing yards, tied for third in fewest passing touchdowns, second in passes intercepted, second in turnovers, and second in fewest total yards. To say this defense is good is an understatement.

The Bills are certainly the feel-good story of the season having made their first playoff appearance in 18 years. The only Bills game I saw was their early season win over the Broncos but their statement win was a 23-17 win at Atlanta.

Both teams have 1,000-yard rushers, the Jaguars Leonard Fournette and the Bills LeSean McCoy who is currently probable with an ankle injury. I expect him to play.

The only thing that could hinder the Jaguars chances at advancing is their quarterback play. At times this season, Blake Bortles looks like the 2014 3rd overall pick; others… no so much. Bortles was intercepted 13 times and sacked 24 times; both career lows.

Given their defense, the Jaguars should do just enough to advance to the next round.

JAGUARS 20, BILLS 16

PANTHERS AT SAINTS, FOX 2:30PM SUNDAY

The NFC is definitely top heavy with talent and any of the teams on that side of the bracket could be in the Super Bowl. That is certainly true of the Saints and Panthers.

It looked like the Saints were on track for another lost season starting 0-2 with losses to the Vikings and Patriots but then started an 8-game winning streak that started with a win over the Panthers in Charlotte and included a 47-10 win at Buffalo that was highlighted by running backs Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara both rushing for over 100 yards and 4 touchdowns. This duo are 1-2 on the Saints in total yards with over 1,500 yards apiece.

After that 8-2 start, the Saints finished the season 3-3 and nearly lost the division on the last week of the season with their loss at Tampa if it wasn’t for Carolina’s loss at Atlanta.

The Panthers started 4-1, including a 33-30 win at New England. They have shown they can beat the NFC’s best with home wins over the Falcons and Vikings, but they were swept by the Saints and laid an egg in the season finale at the Falcons.

The Panthers certainly have the talent with their running back duo of Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey who led the Panthers in pass receptions and second in receiving yards. The Saints also have to be aware not just of Cam Newton’s arm but his legs. Newton led the team in rushing with 754 yards and 6 touchdowns.

This is a battle of two teams that are in the top 10 in rushing yards; the Saints are ranked 5th, the Panthers 4th.

But I like the Saints.

Quarterback Drew Brees definitely gives the Saints an advantage. While Brees did not put up the gaudy stats like he has in previous seasons, he still threw for 4,334 yards, 23 touchdowns vs. 8 interceptions, and completed 72% of his passes.

The Saints defense stands out. They are ranked 10th in points allowed and 9th in turnover difference at +7 compared to the Panthers -1. I see the Saints relying on their strong ground game as well as getting a couple of turnovers to advance to the next round.

SAINTS 28, PANTHERS 17