2017 NFL SEASON: DIVISIONAL ROUND

Last week I went 0-2 on Saturday and followed it up by going 2-0 on Sunday to pull even.

Kickoff times are MT

FALCONS AT EAGLES, SATURDAY 2:30PM NBC

The Falcons were able to hold the NFL’s top scoring offense to only 13 points, forced 2 turnovers, and a balanced offensive attack sent them to a divisional round showdown with the NFC East champion Philadelphia Eagles.

Pretty much the Eagles were one of the top teams from the start of the season until the end. There was not much of challenge for them in winning the NFC East and they clinched the NFC 1-seed on Christmas night with a 19-10 win over the visiting Raiders.

I really want to pick the Eagles in this game. They are 4th in scoring defense, 4th in yards against, 4th in turnovers, and 3rd in opponents’ 3rd down conversions. They have four players who have gotten 5 or more sacks with defensive end Brandon Graham leading the team with 9.5 sacks.

However…

Since Carson Wentz’s torn ACL in the Eagles Week 14 win at Los Angeles, Nick Foles is now under center. This is his second stint with the Eagles; his last was from 2012-14 when he led the Eagles to a NFC East division title in 2013 and a Pro Bowl appearance. In his 3 starts this season, Foles completed 56.2% of his passes for 537 yards with 5 touchdowns and 2 interceptions as part of the Eagles’ 2-1 record during this stretch.

It should be noted that the one loss was to Dallas in Week 17 where neither team had anything to play for, and it was a scoreless game until 12:19 left in the game. Foles started the game and went 4-11 for 39 yards and an interception. He was pulled likely because, again, the Eagles had already clinched the 1-seed and wanted to make sure the team got to playoffs without any more key injuries.

I wasn’t crazy about how the Falcons ended the season in terms of offensive scoring but it works for them. This should be another balanced offensive game for them and it should put them in their second consecutive NFC Championship game appearance.

FALCONS 23, EAGLES 13

TITANS AT PATRIOTS, SATURDAY 6PM CBS

I figured the Andy Reid coaching implosion would not happen until this round but here we are. Kansas City simply abandoned their game plan of running the ball while the Titans 202 rushing yards, 156 of those from running back Travis Henry, advanced the Titans into the second round of the playoffs for a meeting with the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots.

Once again, the Patriots are one of the favorites for the championship. The talk starts and begins with the Belichick-Brady tandem that has dominated the NFL this century. Since coming together in 2000, the Patriots have won the division 15 out of 18 seasons, only finished under .500 once (2000), have 16 seasons of at least 10 wins, and 5-2 in Super Bowls.

And this will eventually end

While Tom Brady put up expected numbers this season, they are a bit suspect. Even though the Patriots ended the season 4-1, Brady saw his numbers cool off a bit.

TOM BRADY, 2017	FIRST 11 GAMES	LAST 5 GAMES
RECORD	9-2	4-1
PASS YDS PER GAME	306.7	240.6
COMPLETION %	68.4	61.3
TD-INT RATIO	26-3	6-5
QB RATING	111.7	81.6

Here is how Brady’s first 11 games (Good Brady) and final 5 games (Bad Brady) look like if those numbers are extended across the entire 16-game season vs. his real numbers from this season.

	FINAL STATS	GOOD BRADY	BAD BRADY
PASS YDS	4577	4908	3,850
COMPLETION %	66.3	68.4	61.3
TD-INT RATIO	32-8	38-4	19-16
QB RATING	102.8	112.1	81.4

And here are how the numbers would rank

RANKS	FINAL STATS	GOOD BRADY	BAD BRADY
PASS YDS	1	1	10
COMPLETION %	5	2	22
TOUCHDOWNS	3	1	T-17
INTERCEPTIONS	22	T-42	T-2
QB RATING	3	1	23

FiveThirtyEight digs deeper in these numbers and found this is not the first instance that Brady has had a bad 5-game stretch. Based on their metrics, he had bad 5-game stretches in 2009, 2010, 2013, 2014, and 2015 (twice).

It points out that those other stretches occurred when Brady was in his 30s.

This current 5-game stretch happened after Brady turned 40

FiveThirtyEight found another quarterback who had another similar drop off in the final 5 games of a season.

Peyton Manning in 2014

As you recall, in 2014 Manning was in the third season with the Broncos and much like his 2012 and 2013 seasons still had it despite being 38.

But then, as we know now, nagging injuries transformed Manning from laser rocket arm quarterback in the first 11 games of 2014 to just an old quarterback in the final 5 games of that season.

Despite Manning’s transformation, the Broncos would win the Super Bowl… the next season in part due to their defense.

The Broncos 2014 season ended with a home loss to a playoff fresh Colts team who were led by Andrew Luck who was in his third season.

Like the 2014 Broncos, the Patriots are facing a similar team in the Titans. Like Luck three years ago, Marcus Mariota is in his third season.

Based on these numbers, it looks like the Titans could pull off the upset. But for now, it is still Brady and Belichick in New England.

PATRIOTS 31, TITANS 14

JAGUARS AT STEELERS, SUNDAY 11AM CBS

I have been watching the NFL for 22 years and the Jaguars-Bills game was one of the most offensively inept playoff games I have ever seen.

The Jaguars advanced into the next round and they will have to score more than 10 points if they are to play in their first AFC Championship Game since 1999.

Running back Leonard Fournette averaged 80 yards per game during the regular season. Against Buffalo, he rushed for 57 yards. The leading rusher was quarterback Blake Bortles was 88 yards. He also threw the game’s only touchdown and passed for 87 yards.

The only thing going for the Jaguars is that they defeated the Steelers 30-9 at Pittsburgh in Week 5. That win was attributed to intercepting Ben Roethlisberger 5 times including returning two for touchdowns in the third quarter.

For the Steelers, it was another season revolving around the Killer Bs: Ben, Bell, and Brown

Before his calf injury in Week 15 against New England, Antonio Brown was in the running for league MVP. Since the AP has given out the award beginning in 1957, no wide receiver has ever won this award. The Steelers had a stretch of three prime-time games from Weeks 12-14 and in everyone of those games, Brown made big plays that put Pittsburgh in position to win.

WEEK	OPPONENT	TARGETS	CATCHES	YDS	TDS
12	VS GB	12	10	169	2
13	AT CIN	16	8	101	1
14	VS BAL	18	11	213	0
	TOTAL	46	29	483	3

And in each of those games, the Honorary B, kicker Chris Boswell, made the game winning field goal.

Roethlisberger threw for 4,251 yards which included his second 500-yard passing game. Running back Le’Veon Bell rushed for 1,291 yards and caught 85 passes for 655 yards and 2 touchdowns. Bell’s total scrimmage yards was best on the team ahead of Brown. Bell’s 85 receptions put him between Brown’s 101 and rookie receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster’s 58 catches.

I do not see the Jaguars having success strike twice for them. Sure, their defense ranks 2nd in points allowed, 5th in takeaway difference, and 1st in pass defense, but much like the Houston Texans over the last few seasons, quarterback play has held this team back from being a serious contender.

If the Bortles that I saw play against the Ravens, Seahawks, or Texans shows up in Pittsburgh, it might be just good enough to pull off the upset. As Deadspin noted after the Jaguars 45-7 win over the Texans (sorry, Monica), “(t)he Jags are very capable of making a deep playoff run, not least because their defense can hang with anyone. Bortles sure as hell isn’t Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady or Matt Ryan, but he doesn’t have to be.”

Unfortunately for the Jaguars, the Steelers have someone who is equal to those three quarterbacks.

STEELERS 30, JAGUARS 13

SAINTS AT VIKINGS, SUNDAY 2:30PM FOX

Despite only rushing for 41 yards, the Saints survived the Panthers. Quarterback Drew Brees threw for 376 yards and 2 touchdowns in the win and sent the Saints for their second trip to Minneapolis this season.

The Saints are hoping for a third trip at the end of the month while the Vikings are eying to be the first team to ever play in their home stadium in the Super Bowl. Though in the game, the Vikings would be the visitors since this is an even numbered Super Bowl as the NFC Champion would be designated the road team for the game.

The Vikings could do it given that they have the number 1 ranked scoring defense, give up the second fewest passing and rushing yards, and surrender the fewest yards per play.

I would keep an eye on defensive end Everson Griffen for this game. He was tied for fourth in the league with 13 sacks. As well as safety Harrison Smith who led the team with 5 interceptions.

Expect quarterback Case Keenum to look for receiver Adam Thielen throughout the game. The fourth-year receiver who lived in Minnesota and went to college there is in the top ten in receiving yards and receptions. Thielen is heading to his first Pro Bowl.

Despite these accolades, I like the Saints in this game because of their good mix of youth and experience. As noted by FiveThirtyEight, the Saints had the most valuable rookie class in 2017. Of the top five teams that leaned on rookies the most, the Saints were the only team to make the playoffs while the other four teams – San Francisco, Cleveland, Houston, and Chicago – had a combined 15 wins.

The team that had the most valuable rookie class last season was Dallas. Unfortunately, the Cowboys as the NFC 1-seed lost in the divisional round. With the Saints I do not foresee that happening due to their experience at quarterback, Brees, and their head coach Sean Payton.

SAINTS 21, VIKINGS 17