Living
in Colorado is a bit of a political shock. Democrats are in charge of The
Lege the General Assembly holding a 37-28 edge in the House and an 18-17
edge in the Senate. Governor John Hickenlooper, a Democrat, was elected in 2010
during the Tea Party led Republican wave election as well as Senator Michael
Bennett who defeated Ken Buck. Senator Mark Udall is up for re-election this
cycle who is being challenged by my congressman Corey Gardner (R, CO-4).
Republicans
do hold some sway in Colorado. The US House delegation is in their favor 4-3,
but there
is a highly competitive House race in the 6th congressional district that makes
up the eastern and southern Denver suburbs.
The
Secretary of State is a Republican, Scott Gessler. You might
remember in 2012 Gessler was one
of five secretaries of states profiled by Think Progress in their attempts to purge
their state's voter rolls in order to shrink the pool of voters.
Gessler
sent 3,903 letters to Colorado voters challenging their eligibility to
participate in the 2012 election. Of those that received letters 40.1%
were Democrats, 45.9% were unaffiliated, and 12.4% were Republicans.
Gessler's
attempt at voter suppression was criticized because of the appearance of
partisan targeting and pursuing the non-existent problem of voter fraud. Larimer
County Clerk Scott Doyle questioned these efforts saying, “I really don’t know that what the
secretary’s office is chasing here is a problem in our voting system, not large
numbers.”
Doyle
also poised the financial question of pursuing this voter purge by saying, “(i)f you’re talking about the expenditure
of resources to locate what could be just a couple, I don’t know that it is
(worth the trouble).”
Larimer
County Clerk Scott Doyle is a Republican.
In
September 2012, Gessler abandoned
his efforts to purge the voter rolls after nearly 500 people responded with
proof that they were eligible to vote and nearly 90% were verified through a
federal database. Gessler planned to challenge the 141 names that were up for
question but did not have enough time with the 2012 election looming.
We
know who won
the state of Colorado in 2012. Obama carried the Centennial State 51-46 and
earned the state's 9 electoral votes. 2.57 million people cast their ballots in
the 2012 presidential election in Colorado and Gessler was planning on
targeting 141 people, a whopping 0.0055%
of those that cast their ballots in that election.
There
are other crazies but I will save that for another time. This is about the Colorado
Republican Primary for Governor.
Gessler
is one of FOUR Republicans vying for the nomination. Gessler along with Bob Beauprez and Mike Kopp will be on today's
primary ballot.
And
then there is Tom Tancredo.
Originally
it started out with nine (yes the number 9) candidates but was later reduced to
seven and then down to four at the State Republican Convention in April. Kopp
and Gessler qualified by passing the 30% threshold needed among convention delegates
to appear on the ballot. Even though Beauprez and Tancredo failed to qualify
for the ballot at convention, they were able to get on the ballot via the
signature collection process.
In
May, three of the four candidates participated in a debate where
they attempted to rebuke that their party had embraced policy positions that
were anti-women. The debate began with the theme from… The Dating Game.
And
the Republican Party wonders why they aren't doing that well among women
voters.
Gessler
seemed
to be one who got it when asked how would they as candidates would appeal
to women by mentioning there has been a tone in recent elections that have
turned women off from Republicans and saying, "In recent years, the Republican Party has sometimes seemed
disrespectful or harsh. We can’t come off as judgmental.”
But
it is not going to help their prospects among women in 2014 when there
is personhood on the upcoming November ballot which was defeated in 2008
and 2010. It
does not help that they have a
US Senate candidate who not only advocated for personhood but was a
co-sponsor for the No
Taxpayer Funding For Abortion Act in 2011 which
would have redefined rape. Two
of the co-sponsors of this bill: Rep. Paul Ryan (R, WI-1) and Todd "legitimate
rape" Aiken.
This
is Bob Beauprez's second attempt at the governor's mansion. In 2006, Beauprez
decided to leave congress and try his hand at winning the Colorado
gubernatorial election. In May 2006
a photograph surfaced of Beauprez following a flight in an F-16 in a
military-issued uniform.
One
small detail: Beauprez never served in the military. He received draft
deferments.
Vietnam
War Veteran Jim Hudson made this observation to the now-defunct Rocky Mountain
News which is now on the Colorado
Pols website:
“On the one hand, Bob Beauprez was
healthy enough to letter in two sports in high school and major in physical
education in college. On the other hand, Bob Beauprez says he wasn’t healthy
enough to serve our country when his draft number came up after college because
of an ulcer he had shortly before this picture was taken.”
Bill
Ritter would win comfortably in 2006 by a 17 point margin as part of a wave
election that saw Democrats nationally regain control of the US House and
Senate. As for Beauprez's old
US House seat, it was won and still held today by Ed Perlmutter.
Despite
this, Beauprez has received support
in this election from some veterans including former RNC Chairman and
George W. Bush's VA Secretary Jim Nicholson.
Not
much is really known about Mike Kopp beyond what is on his Wikipedia page.
Colorado Pols "The Big
Line" was giving Kopp 20-to-1 odds of winning the gubernatorial
election. Though Kopp did win the most votes at convention, it didn't translate
to any fundraising. As
of May 2014 when Q1 dollars were released, Kopp raised $105K vs. $118K
spent and only had $33K on hand. I think Colorado Pols is being more than
generous in giving him 20-to-1 odds to win the gubernatorial election.
And
then there is Tom Tancredo who is in his own category.
Tancredo,
like Beauprez, served in the US House in Colorado's
6th congressional district. Prior to that he worked in the Department of
Education for the Reagan and H.W. Bush administrations and served in the
Colorado House of Representatives starting in 1976.
Here
are some of the things that Tancredo is known for.
In
November 2006, Tancredo called Miami a "Third
World Country."
During
his brief presidential run in 2008, Tancredo called for the bombing of Mecca.
Those
comments were condemned by former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson and
former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee as well as other Republicans.
Tancredo
is in support of poll
tests because he believes that somehow Barack
Obama snuck his way into the White House and supports
impeaching the president (and even Fox News called it ridiculous).
Tancredo
supported H.R. 946, the Mass Immigration
Reduction Act of 2003 which would have curbed immigration for a period of 5
years. The bill only had 11 cosponsors
and died in committee in March 2003.
When
Sonia Sotomayor was nominated to the Supreme Court in 2009, Tancredo said
that her being affiliated with the National Council of La Raza was the same as
being a member of the Ku Klux Klan. He
then called her a racist.
In
2010, Tancredo ran on the American Constitution Party platform after
Republicans refused to nominate him at their convention. Former Denver Mayor
John Hickenlooper won not only by nearly 15 points, but he won with a majority.
Now
Tancredo is back as a Republican and running for Colorado governor because of
the tougher background checks that Colorado passed in 2013 and believes that the
Republican Party can win the Latino vote while opposing immigration reform
in a column he wrote as a regular contributor to World
Net Daily.
Despite
Tancredo not participating in the debate and setting
his own rules if he was to matchup against Governor John Hickenlooper, he
could very easily win the nomination based on his fundraising and his
network of supporters throughout the conservative movement.
If
Texas
is highlighting the rightward
direction of the Republican Party during the Obama presidency and post-W. Bush
era, then Colorado has to be the consequences of those actions.
Colorado
is the very definition of a swing state. Starting
with 1988, the margin of victory in the presidential election in Colorado
has been single digits. In that time period, the Republicans have won Colorado
4 times to the Democrats 3 and only
once did Colorado's electoral votes not go to the winning candidate. From
1988 to today, neither
party has dominated statewide offices.
As
of May 2014 per the
Colorado Secretary of State website, there are 3.55 million registered
voters in the state. 30.9% are registered Democrats, 31.5% are registered
Republicans, 1.3% are affiliated with third parties, and 36.2% are unaffiliated
with any party.
Though
Colorado
does have a history of tilting toward Republicans, it is tilting towards a
shade of blue. Part is because voters are rejecting the direction the
Republican Party is trending towards. While Republicans were able to claim
Secretary of State and Treasurer and hold on to Attorney General in 2010, they
were unable to claim the governor's mansion and senate seat because they ran unelectable
candidates. There was Tom Tancredo's third party run and then you had Ken Buck running
for the US Senate making
statements like this and this.
This
is a dilemma that the Republican Party faces and it is highlighted here in
Colorado. You win
a bruising primary by tracking rightward, but then come the general you are
unable to walk back the extreme positions you had to take in order to win
the primary election. It is very likely the Republican Party will keep the US
House in the upcoming election, but because of the rightward positions various
candidates have taken it will cost them the Senate for a third consecutive
election and could have consequences in
the-presidential-election-I-am-not-yet-discussing in 2016.
The
winner of the Colorado Republican Primary will have a lot of baggage to deal
with. Already Governor Hickenlooper is polling in the high 40s and in some
cases touches 50% against
all possible opponents. It does not help that they have a US Senate candidate
who is suddenly
in support of contraception coverage for women, but
still backs efforts to define personhood. As much as 2014 is a different
dynamic than 2010, it is looking like a repeat of that election.
The
clown show may be over in Colorado, but the real act is just warming up.
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