Last
night State Senator Dan Patrick (R, ESPN TX SD-7)
won the Texas Republican Party's nomination for Lieutenant Governor.
The
incumbent, David Dewhurst, had a very daunting task in keeping his seat in the
upper chamber of the Texas Lege. As I observed back in March,
Dewhurst's career is over. Dewhurst was unable to back off a challenge by
now-Senator Ted Cruz (R, Denial TX) in 2012 and now in 2014 as he was
unable to fight off a challenge in his right flank as represented in Patrick.
Back
in April I watched the debate between then-San
Antonio Mayor, now-HUD Secretary Julián Castro and Texas State Senator Dan
Patrick on immigration that was moderated by Texas Tribune's Evan Smith in
San Antonio. I think this debate is telling about the type of governing style Patrick
will likely bring to the Texas Senate and the policies the Texas Republican
Party will enact.
And
if you think that just because you don't live in Texas (ahem, Colorado) and
those policies will have no impact on you, read
this piece about why Texas is important and how the state has had an impact
on national policies.
When
I was analyzing the April debate between Castro and Patrick I had this thought
that it was going to be something deep and insightful. I was coming back to
this one observation.
Patrick's
statements were never really geared towards the debate (and I call it a debate
under the a very small-l liberal definition). The debate turned into a Patrick
Platform by use of phrases of "Anchor Babies" and "Secure The Border." These bumper sticker
phrases play well in Republican circles in Texas, but in other parts of the
country... not so much. While the so-called establishment wing of the
Republican Party has been winning primaries in elections in Kentucky and North
Carolina, more conservative elements of the Republican Party are doing well in
Texas.
The
Texas Republican Party is considering scaling back some of their pro-immigration
planks for their
2014 platform when the party convenes for its biannual convention next
month in Fort Worth. Doing so is a sign of them appeasing their base, but at
the same time will harm their prospects with the growing and influential
Hispanic demographic.
What
is happening in Texas is part of something larger and could be ongoing for the
next couple of election cycles.
Nationally
the Republican Party is at odds between various factions that comprise the
party: pro-business interests, the religious right, the libertarian Ron/Rand
Paul supporters, firearms rights activists, pro-life movement, anti-immigrant
factions, states' rights supporters, and the Tea Party. Though it comes down to
these two main groups.
Group
A clings to the idea that if they had ran a more conservative candidate in the
last two presidential elections they would have won the White House. They
generally associate themselves with the Tea Party and back anti-establishment
candidates because as I mentioned word-for-word
in the same post after the Texas Primary:
Pretty much these people are waging war
against the establishment because they feel like the Republican establishment
let them down over the last decade by not enacting the most extreme elements of
the conservative agenda. George W. Bush is considered a hero to some of these
people, but they feel that he let them down by growing the size of government
by creating the Department of Homeland Security, signing into law the USA
PATRIOT Act, and compromising with those evil Democrats to bail out Wall Street
to keep the economy from becoming more of a smoking crater than it already was.
According
to these people, compromising was the WORST act of betrayal that Bush could
have done.
Group
B recognizes that Republican Party has failed to win the popular vote in 5 of
the last 6 presidential elections. In that same time period, no Republican
Presidential candidate has received 300 electoral votes or more. In part it has
to do with the country supporting same-sex marriage and drifting away from the
culture wars of what helped Republicans in the past, a disastrous foreign and
economic policy under the George W. Bush administration, and most importantly,
shifting demographics that favor a Democratic candidate.
Both
groups want to win elections. Most importantly the one election that results in
their candidate living at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue for at least four years.
Group B needs the demographics in the general election but needs Group A to get
through the primary process.
As
shown in Kentucky, Senator Mitch McConnell easily cruised to his victory over
challenger Matt Bevin. The Bevin campaign was plagued with many issues such as appearing
at a cockfighting rally. In North Carolina, Speaker of the State House Thom
Tillis had support from Mitt Romney and the Chamber of Commerce. Though Tillis
received 45.7% of the vote it was enough to avoid a runoff.
It
was not so much that Republican incumbent candidates have found the formula to
defeat primary challengers to bring their party back to the mainstream but
rather have adopted positions that mirror those of the base of the party.
For
those that have been celebrating the demise of the Tea Party perhaps it was
more of celebrating
the demise of the label that describes outsiders challenging Republican incumbents.
What
does the nomination of Dan Patrick and others mean for Texas?
It
means that there won't be much in positive policy in the upcoming Texas Lege
session. If Dan Patrick becomes the next Lieutenant Governor of Texas (note: he
does have a
very good Democratic opponent who could be the literal and/or representative future
of Texas politics), expect a lot of red meat thrown at the Texas Republican
base: Arizona style immigration laws,
cutting early voting, and slashing of education budgets.
Things
are not much better when you look down ballot. Ag commissioner candidate Sid
Miller has backing from Ted Nugent. George P. Bush is
talking about abortion which has nothing to do with the job he is
campaigning for, Land Commissioner. It is going to be odd when new Texas
Attorney General Ken Paxton is disbarred for his
violations of the Texas
Securities Board as he prepares to defend Texas's same-sex marriage ban
before the Supreme Court.
And
don't get me started about who is running for State Senate and State House.
Speaker Straus will
likely be retained as Texas House Speaker, but he will likely face more vocal
and active opposition for his speakership when the Lege reconvenes in January
2015.
Long
term consequences is that the Republican Party will continue its rightward trend
and will further hinder its hopes in capturing the White House in future
elections. In Republican
Primaries, Texas is next largest delegate haul. In 2012 there were 155 delegates up for grabs. A
Republican candidate will have to track hard right in order to gain those
delegates necessary to win the nomination.
As
Paul Burka pointed out in a piece for Texas Monthly, Texas is
being run by the Tea Party (or whatever label they are calling themselves
these days). For things to get better it might take Texas to hit rock bottom.
Texas
is the location of the Republican Civil War between all those competing
interests within the party.
Unfortunately
the people impacted by the infighting among the Republican Party will be the citizens
of Texas.
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