Before I reveal my final electoral college prediction, I cannot stress enough how important downballot races are. What happens in your state capitol matters; probably more than what happens in our nation’s capital.
Because 2020 was a census year, 2021 will be redistricting and several states still redraw their districts based on what party controls the legislature. There has been an effort to flip those chambers or introduce ballot initiatives to allow for independent commissions to redraw districts that do not so strongly favor one party.
If you haven’t voted yet, do so on Tuesday
I have lived in Colorado for nearly 7 years and it has been a relatively quite election season in this state. Neither the Biden or Trump campaigns have targeted this state. Despite their best efforts, the Gardner campaign and its allies have done little to make the case on why he should remain a senator. The only competitive congressional race has not been CO-6 located in Aurora and the eastern Denver metro suburbs, but out in the western slope-based district of CO-3. That race has received a lot of attention in part due to that Lauren Bobert defeated Scott Tipton in the June primary and she is associated with the dangerous conspiracy theory of QAnon.
Biden may be the first Democratic presidential candidate to win Colorado by double digits since 1964. That effect will certainly be felt in downballots as well as in future elections.
Two years earlier, Democrats swept every statewide office that was on the ballot, flipped CO-6 for the first time ever, flipped the state senate for the first time in four years, and increased their majority in the state house past 40 seats.
In response to the rapidly shifting political grounds in Colorado, the state Republican Party has pursued go-nowhere recall efforts and continued to appease their rural base without making any effort to try to make inroads with voters along the Front Range.
Given the national political environment, it is looking like Republicans are headed towards huge losses. They will be nowhere near capturing any chamber of the Colorado General Assembly.
If 2018 did not convince you that this state is a blue state, 2020 will solidify it.
PREDICTION
STATE
SENATE: DEMOCRATS 20-15
STATE
HOUSE: DEMOCRATS 42-23
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