This is my final electoral college prediction as it coincides with my predictions for the House and Senate.
If you haven’t voted yet, do so.
Let’s recap since the last prediction.
First, the House.
Nancy Pelosi will still be in the Speaker’s chair for another two-year term. Not only that but the Democrats’ majority will grow. Polling and forecasters have consistently pointed to this outcome.
The US House map is still drawn to the Republican’s advantage but as shown in 2018, that did not matter as much. Trump has weakened the Republican’s hold on the suburbs that many districts once thought out of reach for Democrats such as those in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, Houston Metro, the Atlanta suburbs, and the once hardcore Republican area of Orange County, CA are now looking like they will flip blue.
Democrats were also given some help with state courts striking down partisan maps in North Carolina and Pennsylvania prior to the 2018 mid-terms. Hopefully enough state legislatures will flip in certain states to where the Republican efforts to rig the House in their favor will be undone after the last census was conducted in 2010. The crown jewel is the Texas State House where Democrats need to win 76 out of 150 seats in order to have some say at the redistricting table next year.
HOUSE PROJECTION
Democrats, 240-195
Now the Senate
The magic number is 51 for both parties to retain control without winning the White House.
Even if Joe Biden wins the presidency, he might have a narrow Senate majority to work with. If somehow there is a massive polling error and Trump wins, he could be facing a Democratic senate and they will be an even bigger thorn in his side than the House since the Senate confirms cabinet officials and confirms judges.
Either way, here is a synopsis on how I see the senate races shaping up
For starters, the only seat I see flipping to the Republicans is Doug Jones in Alabama. Jones scored a surprise upset in part due to Republicans nominating Roy Moore who had a lot of baggage. This time Republicans nominated former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville as their senate candidate after a heated primary where former Attorney General Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III tried to return to the senate. I like Jones given that he did everything he could to get justice for the four little girls murdered in a domestic terrorist attack at the 16th Street Baptist Church in Birmingham, AL in September 1963, but unfortunately the cards are not in his favor in this race.
There has been a lot of noise of Republicans flipping Michigan but I don’t see any signals of that happening.
As for the seats flipping to the Democrats, Martha McSally, Cory Gardner, Susan Collins, and Thom Tillis will NOT be back in the Senate come January 2021.
And good riddance to these Trump enablers.
Arizona Governor Doug Ducey did McSally no favors when he appointed her to that seat. As you recall, McSally lost her race to Kysten Sinema two years ago. Instead of trying to appeal to a rapidly changing electorate in her state, she went hard right and ensnared herself into Trump’s base.
In Colorado and Maine, Gardner and Collins have repeatedly ignored their constituents and have done the bidding of Trump and McConnell. You can only do that for so long until your constituents have had enough. For his dodging, Gardner earned the moniker of Cardboard Cory; basically, saying that a piece of cardboard would be a better senator than him.
I think Maine’s breaking point was when Collins voted to acquit Trump in his senate impeachment trial earlier this year. Her reasoning was that Trump learned his lesson.
Narrator: No, he did not
Tillis’ problem in North Carolina is the same as McSally in Arizona and that is a rapidly changing electorate combined with anyone aligned with Trump is politically doomed.
Other seats that could flip to the Democrats are Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Montana, South Carolina, and Texas.
It is hard to forecast Alaska since there is not much polling that comes out of that state. I still have it as Republican but it would not shock me if it flipped.
Six years ago, Joni Ernst was viewed as a rising star in the Republican Party. Today she is facing potential electoral defeat. Interesting that the race suddenly shifted in the final days all over a poll showing Ernst up 48-41. Ernst hasn’t done herself many favors specifically with less than stellar debate performances where she stumbled to answer questions about agriculture.
Kansas and especially Mississippi could flip if more investment was put into those races ahead of time like with what is happening in South Carolina. The one out of those three that is likely to flip to the Democrats is South Carolina but I think Lyndsay Graham will very narrowly keep that seat.
Democrats have proven they can win statewide races in Montana despite its Republican tilt in presidential races. If Bullock does what Tester did two years ago, he will be the next senator from that state.
Texas may be dependent on what happens at the presidential level. John Cornyn stays if Trump wins the state or a Biden win of 5 or less. A Biden win above 5… he might be packing his bags.
The final Senate races are the ones in Georgia, both the regular and special election. At the start of the campaign it was expected that these races would be Republican held seats but due to the demographics of Georgia mirroring those of North Carolina and Virginia, it has emerged as a senate battleground for not just one but both races.
Because of the rules surrounding senate races in Georgia, a candidate has to clear 50% in order to win the seat outright. Based on the polling, the regularly scheduled seat is looking like it heading towards a runoff between Republican incumbent David Purdue and Democratic challenger Jon Osoff.
The other seat is a special election with as many as 20 candidates in that race. Two will advance to that runoff and it will be the Republican Senator Kelly Loefler against Democrat Reverend Raphael Warnock. Both runoffs will happen on 5 January 2021.
SENATE: Democrats 52-46
Both Georgia seats
to runoff on 5 January 2021
Finally, the presidency
As I stated in my debate recap, we may be witnessing the final days of the Trump administration.
The truth is this
A lot of people, nearly 96 million people – including myself – have already voted. Those that are voting on Election Day already know who they are voting for. There are not that many people left to convince.
Trump is an incumbent but he has not been a very popular incumbent. His approval averages have been at best 43%. He has only been seeking the approval of his base while dismissing the rest of the country despite that only 46% of the country wanted him to be president last time.
His resume as president: a tax cut that resulted in the debt exploding and increased deficit, cozying up to illiberal systems and shying away from our traditional allies thus reducing global trust in America’s commitments, taking credit for an Obama policy to help veterans, confirming justices that are approved by the Federalist Society, a cruel immigration policy that separates families, the constant tweets, the rallies, the failure to denounce white supremacy after neo-Nazis rioted in Charlottesville and then during the first presidential dedate, the revolving door of political hacks in his administration, hollowing out our federal bureaucracy, the failure to divest himself from his business interests, his adult children and son-in-law playing prominent roles in shaping policy despite having no experience, cheating on his taxes, and impeachment
And this is before addressing the COVID-19 pandemic which was due to science denialism, awful preparation, blaming others, moved the public discourse to a nasty brutish policy where the cruelty is the point, and just outright lying.
It is the lying even for the most mundane things such as crowd size at the inauguration
I think enough Americans have had enough of this, are ready to turn the page, and cast the Trump administration out
So… my final electoral college projection is…
|
ELECTION 2020, POTUS |
EVs |
|
TRUMP |
187 |
|
BIDEN |
351 |
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