Who Am I?

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I served in the US Navy from 2002-08; four of those years were as a Nuclear Propulsion Operator aboard an aircraft carrier. I engage in political activism in various Democratic circles when I am able to. I have a cat, and I am an uncle.

All opinions that I express are my own and do not reflect the views of any organization that I represent.

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

HOUSE AND SENATE ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2014




I have been VERY busy of late blockwalking for Senator Mark Udall, US House candidate Andrew Romanoff in Colorado's 6th congressional district, and a state house candidate for The Lege General Assembly. I have also done phone banking to get out the vote for the Colorado Democrats.

Who will control Congress?



THE HOUSE

Expect the US House to be called early for the Republicans. This should not be a surprise to anyone. As shown in 2012, Democrats actually won the popular vote in the House by a million votes. However, because most states rely on their legislatures to redraw congressional districts and most states had Republican controlled legislatures after the 2010 elections, Republicans were able to maintain a majority in the House.

Real Clear Politics is showing 30 tossup seats but none are near the middle line. The generic congressional ballot per Real Clear again shows the Republicans averaging a 2.4 point lead. It should be noted that the last 9 generic congressional ballots have alternated between Democrats and Republicans holding a lead to the most recent poll showing a tie.

Congress has one of the most historically low approval ratings. According to Polling Report, Congress' ratings has only reached 20% once in 2014. All other approval ratings in 2014 have been in the teens or worse.

Frankly put, we are still paying for 2010. Expect the Republicans to make some gains in the House, but it won't be a wave a la 2010.

114TH CONGRESS
US HOUSE
REPUBLICANS
240
DEMOCRATS
195


THE SENATE

Turnout could be the key to Democrats holding onto the US Senate. Let's look at some of the races that will decide which party will control the Senate this coming January.

For starters I think Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Kay Hagan will survive their respective Senate races. In New Hampshire, Scott Brown's political comeback will fall short while in North Carolina Thom Tillis has become the face of the rightward track the state has taken in recent years. Be mindful of the barriers that North Carolina has put in place to keep CERTAIN folks (code: blacks, women, students, working class) from voting.

I think Mitch McConnell will return to the Senate in Kentucky. Alison Lunderson-Grimes made the race interesting and despite her positions that many Kentuckians support, she is a Democrat running in a red state. Even though she tried to distance herself from Obama with disastrous results again she has that D next to her name. I think also the Democrats are going to regret pulling out of Kentucky if they lose this election within the margin of error.

Kansas will elect its first non-Republican senator since 1930. This is in part due to Governor Brownback sinking the Republican brand in The Sun Flower State.

Though Alaska, Iowa, and Colorado have shown trending toward Republicans let me remind you that the only poll that matters is election day. I hope that voters realize that Joni Ernst is insane and if Ernst is Iowa's next senator, they are putting up with that kind of crazy for six years. I wouldn't trust Alaska polling because it has a history of being very unreliable.

And Colorado.

I have some intimate knowledge of this place having lived here for almost a year. Like Alaska and Iowa, Colorado has a turnout mechanism. I have regularly blockwalked for Democrats in Colorado. The Democratic turnout machine in 2010 saved Senator Michael Bennett. It will save Senator Mark Udall in 2014. I see Udall pulling off a 1 point win over Cory Gardner.

Finally the two wildcards: Georgia and Louisiana.

Georgia is competitive because of efforts to try to register more Democratic-type voters. I would keep my eye on Georgia in the next few cycles. It could be a battleground state as soon as 2016.

Louisiana has a runoff system. If no candidate gets to 50%, the top two advance to a December runoff. Georgia as well has a runoff system, but their runoff will be in January.

As in after the 114th Congress is sworn in.

Overall, I don't think Senate control will be determined until after New Year's Day.

114TH CONGRESS
US SENATE
DEMOCRATS
49
REPUBLICANS
48
INDEPENDENTS
1
RUNOFF
2


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