I
have been VERY busy of late blockwalking for Senator Mark Udall, US House
candidate Andrew Romanoff in Colorado's 6th congressional district, and a state
house candidate for The Lege General Assembly. I have also done phone banking
to get out the vote for the Colorado Democrats.
Who
will control Congress?
THE HOUSE
Expect
the US House to be called early for the Republicans. This should not be a
surprise to anyone. As shown in 2012, Democrats actually won the popular vote
in the House by a million votes. However, because
most states rely on their legislatures to redraw congressional districts and
most states had Republican controlled legislatures after the 2010 elections,
Republicans were able to maintain a majority in the House.
Real
Clear Politics is showing 30 tossup seats but none are near the middle line.
The generic congressional ballot per Real Clear again shows the Republicans
averaging a 2.4 point lead. It should be noted that the last 9 generic
congressional ballots have alternated between Democrats and Republicans holding
a lead to the most recent poll showing a tie.
Congress
has one of the most historically low approval ratings. According to Polling Report, Congress'
ratings has only reached 20% once in 2014. All other approval ratings in 2014
have been in the teens or worse.
Frankly
put, we are still paying for 2010. Expect the Republicans to make some gains in
the House, but it won't be a wave a la 2010.
114TH
CONGRESS
|
US HOUSE
|
REPUBLICANS
|
240
|
DEMOCRATS
|
195
|
THE SENATE
Turnout
could be the key to Democrats holding onto the US Senate. Let's look at some of
the races that will decide which party will control the Senate this coming
January.
For
starters I think Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Kay Hagan will survive their
respective Senate races. In New Hampshire, Scott Brown's political comeback
will fall short while in North Carolina Thom Tillis has become the face of the
rightward track the state has taken in recent years. Be mindful of the barriers
that North Carolina has put in place to keep CERTAIN folks (code: blacks,
women, students, working class) from voting.
I
think Mitch McConnell will return to the Senate in Kentucky. Alison Lunderson-Grimes
made the race interesting and despite her positions that many Kentuckians
support, she is a Democrat running in a red state. Even though she tried to
distance herself from Obama with disastrous results again she has that D next
to her name. I think also the Democrats are going to regret pulling out of
Kentucky if they lose this election within the margin of error.
Kansas
will elect its first non-Republican senator since 1930. This is in part due to
Governor Brownback sinking the Republican brand in The Sun Flower State.
Though
Alaska, Iowa, and Colorado have shown trending toward Republicans let me remind
you that the only poll that matters is election day. I hope that voters realize
that Joni Ernst is insane and if Ernst is Iowa's next senator, they are putting
up with that kind of crazy for six years. I wouldn't
trust Alaska polling because it has a history of being very unreliable.
And
Colorado.
I
have some intimate knowledge of this place having lived here for almost a year.
Like Alaska and Iowa, Colorado has a turnout mechanism. I have regularly
blockwalked for Democrats in Colorado. The Democratic turnout machine in 2010
saved Senator Michael Bennett. It will save Senator Mark Udall in 2014. I see
Udall pulling off a 1 point win over Cory Gardner.
Finally
the two wildcards: Georgia and Louisiana.
Georgia
is competitive because of efforts to try to register more Democratic-type
voters. I would keep my eye on Georgia in the next few cycles. It could be a
battleground state as soon as 2016.
Louisiana
has a runoff system. If no candidate gets to 50%, the top two advance to a
December runoff. Georgia as well has a runoff system, but their runoff will be
in January.
As
in after the 114th Congress is sworn in.
Overall,
I don't think Senate control will be determined until after New Year's Day.
114TH
CONGRESS
|
US SENATE
|
DEMOCRATS
|
49
|
REPUBLICANS
|
48
|
INDEPENDENTS
|
1
|
RUNOFF
|
2
|
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