Well,
I tipped my hand on who I was picking to win in the Wild Card Round in a
previous post. Here are my explanations why. Also my fellow football pickers have their own perspectives on the Wild Card Round. Ms. Roberts' picks are here and Mr. Blake's picks are here.
CHIEFS AT COLTS, 1/4, 3:30 PM
(CT), NBC
Last
season Kansas City had the worst record, but had 6 Pro-Bowlers. This season
under new head coach Andy Reid, Kansas City finished with an 11-5 record and
their first playoff appearance since the 2010 season. Indianapolis won their
first AFC South Division Title since the 2010 season and is making their second
consecutive playoff appearance. Kansas City was keeping pace with Denver for a
chance at the AFC-1 seed while the Colts faced minimal opposition to the AFC
South Title.
The
Colts have proven they can compete with the best having defeated the Seahawks,
49ers, Broncos, and Chiefs, but they also lost to the Chargers and Bengals, the
two AFC teams playing on Sunday.
The
three playoff teams in the AFC West have relied on key players. For the Broncos
and Chargers, it was the play of their quarterbacks to get them into the
playoffs. The Chiefs have relied on the running game behind Jamaal Charles. If
the Chiefs are to make a deep playoff run, it will be behind the Charles'
running.
Both
teams have endured long post-season losing streaks. The Chiefs haven't won a
playoff game since 1993 while the Colts last playoff win was the 2009 AFC Title
Game against the Jets.
I
think the Chiefs are long overdue for a playoff victory and should get one here
today.
CHIEFS 27, COLTS 23
SAINTS AT EAGLES, 1/4, 7
PM (CT), NBC
Last
weekend the Saints and Eagles were involved in "win-and-in"
scenarios. Both teams took care of business and meet in this NFC Playoff Game
and will determine who plays in the second round.
While
New Orleans has a 3-5 record on the road, the Eagles are 4-4 at home. The
Saints 3-5 record is a TAD misleading. 3 of those losses were by 8 points or
less.
The
Eagles have exceeded expectations this season with Chip Kelly as their head
coach and backup quarterback Nick Foles posting an 8-2 record and throwing 27
touchdown passes vs. 2 interceptions. Running back LeSean McCoy claimed the
NFL's rushing title with 1,607 yards. Since starting 3-5, Philadelphia has won
7 of their last 8 games.
Since
the arrival of quarterback Drew Brees and Sean Payton in 2006, the Saints have made
the playoffs 5 times in 8 seasons with a 5-3 playoff record and a Super Bowl
championship.
While
the Saints have never won a road playoff game in the franchise's history and
the Eagles have playmakers on offense, I'm going with experience in this game.
SAINTS 30, EAGLES 27
CHARGERS AT BENGALS, 1/5, NOON
(CT), CBS
The
San Diego Chargers should be sending the New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs a
portion of their playoff bonuses. It was the Jets win over the Dolphins that
put the Chargers in a "win-and-in" type game and the Chiefs for
choosing to rest key players having already claimed the AFC 5-seed by virtue of
not winning the AFC West.
Their
last loss was to the Bengals in San Diego in Week 13 and the Chargers were 5-7.
Since then, San Diego has won 4 straight including a win in Denver in Week 15.
Cincinnati, since that same meeting, has won 3 out of 4. That one loss was
against a Steelers team that had a faint hope of entering the playoffs, but
finished the season at 8-8.
Quarterback
Phillip Rivers could make the case for MVP if not for another quarterback that
plays in the same division as him. Rivers passed for 4,478 yards, 32 touchdowns
vs. 11 interceptions, placed 4th with a quarterback rating of 105.5, and led
the NFL in completion percentage with 69.5%. Rivers also led 4 game-winning
drives in 2013.
For
the Bengals, 2013 was about their defense. Cincinnati surrendered an average of
19.1 points per game which was the same as the Chiefs. They ranked third in
yards against behind Carolina and Seattle who also made the playoffs. Teams
gained 4.7 yards per play which was behind Seattle's 4.4 yards per play.
Coming
into Cincinnati has not been a joy for opponents. Ask the Steelers,
Packers,
Patriots,
Colts,
and Ravens
about what happened when they played in Cincinnati this season. In 4 of the
last 5 home games, the Bengals have scored more than 40 points. Cincinnati has
an 8-0 home record this season.
The
last 2 Bengals playoff games have been played in Houston. This season they are
at home where they have a chance of snapping of one the NFL's longest
post-season playoff droughts. The last time the Bengals won a playoff game: 6
January 1991 against the Houston Oilers back at Riverfront Stadium. Today,
Riverfront Stadium no longer exists, the Oilers are the Tennessee Titans, and
Houston has a crummy football team. OK, so two out three things are different.
The
Chargers might be the so-called hot team going in, but playing in Cincinnati
has been no picnic. Odds makers are giving the Bengals a 7 point advantage
going into this game (Again, this information is for entertainment purposes
only. What you do with it is none of my concern).
Another
playoff drought should snap.
BENGALS 38, CHARGERS 28
49ERS AT PACKERS, 1/5,
3:30 PM (CT), FOX
One
team is built around a heavy passing attack while another is based around a
ground game and defense. Which one is based where?
If
you said the passing attack team was based in San Francisco and the ground
game-defensive minded team was based in Green Bay, you'd be wrong.
When
the game kicks off in the late Wisconsin afternoon, the temperature is expected
to be in the single digits and drop below zero as the game goes on. Though the
49ers have been practicing in warmer climates, this is a team that can play
when the elements become extreme.
Green
Bay made the playoffs thanks to a touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers to Randall
Cobb on 4th down in Chicago. The Packers made the playoffs with an 8-7-1 record
as division champions and claimed the NFC 4-seed. It was not looking like the
Packers were going to make the playoffs. After Rodgers' collarbone injury
against the Bears in Green Bay, the Packers went winless throughout the month
of November posting a record of 0-4-1. Green Bay was able to salvage their
season by winning 3 of their final 4 games, including their comeback victory
over the Cowboys in Dallas which was due to Jason Garret being an idiot and
refusing to run the ball, though calling him an idiot would be an insult to
actual idiots.
The
49ers' season has been built on streaks. After a 1-2 start, San Francisco
followed it up with a 5 game winning streak before their bye week. After their
bye, the 49ers lost 2 in a row. Since then they have won 6 in a row including a
win over the Falcons in Week 16 to close out Candlestick Park. The 49ers would
like to send off the stadium by winning the franchise's 6th Super Bowl trophy.
In
the last three matchups, the 49ers have owned the Packers. The 49ers defeated
the Packers in Green Bay to open the 2012 season. In that same season the 49ers
defeated the Packers in the divisional round last season which was Colin
Kaepernick's playoff debut where he passed for 263 yards and 2 touchdowns along
with 181 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. Kaepernick shrugged off the
label that he was a running quarterback in the 2013 season opener by passing
for 412 yards and 3 touchdowns. Wide receiver Anquan Boldin caught 13 passes
for 208 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Vernon Davis caught the other 2
touchdowns.
I
would pick the Packers to win this game based on the location of the game, but
they are not at full strength. Linebacker Clay Matthews is out with a broken
thumb. This does not bode well for the Packers given Kaepernick's scrambling
ability and running back Frank Gore has averaged nearly 92 yards per game in
the last three meetings against the Packers.
Speaking
of location, in this century the Packers are 4-4 in home playoff games after
starting with a perfect home playoff record of 12-0. 10 of those games were in
Green Bay while the other 2 were in Milwaukee (1939 NFL Title, 1967
Western Conference Championship). That might be why the 49ers are a road
favorite of at least 3 points.
Right
now in the Wine and Cheese Bowl, the 49ers have the Packers number.
49ERS 27, PACKERS 17
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