TEXAS 2012 PRIMARY: REPUBLICAN

Now we take a look at what is going on in the Texas Republican Primary…

Enter the Insane Asylum…

PRESIDENT

At first it looked like Texas might play a role in the Republican nomination process. Instead, it might lead to a coronation. According to the “soft” delegate count, Romney has 1,043 delegates. Texas has 155 delegates and is the only state voting that night. Romney needs 101 to officially clinch the nomination.

Of all the candidates that are on the Republican Ballot for Texas, only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul remain; though it should be noted that Paul has gone towards a delegate collecting strategy.

It should be interesting though is that will Texas Republicans give Romney a 50%+1 vote as a sign of solidarity or is there enough of a fracture in the party that Santorum might earn a couple of delegates? And by couple, I mean one or two.

This race will put Romney over the delegate count and thus begin his pivot towards the political center…

US SENATE RACE

Wow… this race has gotten ugly especially in the advertising field.

Former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert’s empty suit ads… the first and most recent one.

Ted Cruz gaining the support of Sarah Palin and Rick Santorum.

But, wait, here’s one… David Dewhurst calling Ted Cruz a liberal because his law firm donated money to the Obama Campaign in 2008.

And Craig James… Well, he’s been all but an afterthought. If he gets 5% of the vote, that would be something. Texans have long memories especially when it comes to football. James was on the SMU team in the early 1980s that was involved in a massive pay-for-play scandal that nearly ended football at that university. Then in 2010, he played a role in the firing of Mike Leach when he was the coach of the Texas Tech football team. Those events MIGHT have played a role in the campaign.

Anyways, the remaining three of Dewhurst, Cruz, and Leppert are trying to claim the top spots for the July runoff.

In the recent Texas Tribune polling, Dewhurst is closest to the 50% threshold. I have rarely seen any ads for his campaign on television and the only signage in the state I saw was on the side of I-35 between Hillsboro and Waco. Hardly any in Denton. Is this part of a strategy to just get to the runoff or hoping that name recognition will get him to 50%, after all Dewhurst is the current Lieutenant Governor?

Dewhurst will be the top vote getter tonight. A runoff is not out of the question. I expect Leppert will get a lot of support from voters in Dallas so, yes, it will be Dewhurst and Leppert in the runoff.

SELECTED US HOUSE RACES

CD-24: This and CD-14 Republican Primaries are probably the most interesting races to watch. CD-14 because it is the district that Ron Paul represents and it will be interesting who Republicans there will nominate.

Anyways… an article in the Houston Chronicle points out that these challenges end up with the incumbent being favored. That is what is shaping up in CD-24 with Representative Kenny Marchant being challenged by former NBC-5 news reporter Grant Stinchfield. Interesting enough the Star-Telegram endorsed Stinchfield.

In the end, the power of incumbency prevails and Marchant will win this primary election to face Democrat Tim Rusk in the November election.

SELECTED STATE LEGISLATIVE RACES

HD-92: This one is of interest to me because I have family that lives in this area and I went to high school with one of the candidates.

This race will go on to represent this district as there is no Democratic challenger for this house district. The candidates are former Bedford City Council member Roger Fisher and Jonathan Stickland, an oil and gas energy consultant, Northeast Tarrant Tea Party Member, and supporter of Ron Paul.

A couple of weekends ago I stopped by the Bedford Public Library to visit my aunt and see if my dad was in town. No luck… but I did see the campaign booths of both candidates. Mr. Fisher’s had a lot more people while Mr. Stickland’s booth had only one person.

Even though Mr. Stickland has lots of signs in the Mid Cities Area, Mr. Fisher has experience in government. Signs do not always equal votes.

And neither does participating in Tea Party Politics. Fisher should come out on top.