SUPER BOWL XLVI

For the thirteenth time, the Super Bowl features a rematch of a game that took place during the regular season.

SUPER BOWL	REGULAR SEASON	SUPER BOWL REMATCH
XII: Cowboys-Broncos	Cowboys, 14-6	Cowboys, 27-10
XV: Raiders-Eagles	Eagles, 10-7	Raiders, 27-10
XVI: 49ers-Bengals	49ers, 21-3	49ers, 26-21
XVIII: Raiders-Redskins	Redskins, 37-35	Raiders, 38-9
XX: Bears-Patriots	Bears, 20-7	Bears, 46-10
XXI: Giants-Broncos	Giants, 19-16	Giants, 39-20
XXV: Giants-Bills	Bills, 17-13	Giants, 20-19
XXVIII: Cowboys-Bills	Bills, 13-10	Cowboys, 30-13
XXIX: 49ers-Chargers	49ers, 38-15	49ers, 49-26
XXXIV: Rams-Titans	Titans, 24-21	Rams, 23-16
XXXVI: Patriots-Rams	Rams, 24-17	Patriots, 20-17
XLII: Giants-Patriots	Patriots, 38-35	Giants, 17-14
XLVI: Patriots-Giants	Giants, 24-20	TBD

The team that won the regular season matchup is 5-7 in the Super Bowl rematch.

In Week 9, the Patriots hosted the Giants in their first matchup since Super Bowl XLII. Much like Super Bowl XLII, the game started out as a low scoring affair but picked up in the game’s final quarter. And just like Super Bowl XLII, the Giants engineered a drive led by Eli Manning and scored a touchdown in the game’s final 45 seconds to come away with a 24-20 victory.

Since that loss the Patriots embarked on a ten game winning streak to end up in their seventh Super Bowl in franchise history. This is the fifth Super Bowl appearance for the coach-quarterback team of Bill Belichick-Tom Brady, the most ever for a coach-quarterback combination. A win would put them in the same company as Chuck Noll and Terry Bradshaw who won four Super Bowls with the Steelers in the 1970s.

In addition, a win would match Brady with the player he idolized as a child, quarterback Joe Montana who led the San Francisco 49ers to 4 Championships in the 1980s.

Meanwhile, the Giants advanced their record to 6-2 and were looking like a contender in the NFC. Then they lost their next four games and were on the verge of missing the playoffs.

In Dallas it appeared that the Giants season was all but done…

Then this happened…

Then Jason Pierre-Paul blocked a field goal to give the Giants the dramatic 37-34 win…

A 99-yard touchdown pass on the road against the Jets in Week 16…

And the Hail Mary at the end of the first half in the playoff game against the defending Super Bowl Champion Packers…

On Conference Championship Sunday, both Super Bowl participants endured their biggest challenge of their season. Against the Ravens, Tom Brady threw 2 interceptions, but scored a TD on a QB sneak play.

It looked like the Patriots run to the Super Bowl was done when it appeared that Ravens wide receiver Lee Evans caught the game winning touchdown…

But Sterling Moore made the play of the season so far for the Patriots by knocking the ball out of Evans’s hands.

It was followed by this miss by kicker Billy Cundiff.

Out in San Francisco the Giants and 49ers played another epic NFC Championship Game. Eli Manning threw for 32 completions on 58 attempts with 316 yards passing and 2 touchdowns on a rain soaked field.

With the game tied at 17 in overtime, punt returner Kyle Williams had a costly fumble that gave the Giants excellent field position.

Lawrence Tynes kicked a 31 yard field goal to send the Giants to their fifth Super Bowl in team history.

In some ways this game is a lot like Super Bowl XLII, but in other ways it’s not. For starters, the roster turnover. Tom Brady and Eli Manning are still the quarterbacks of their respective teams. Bill Belichick and Tom Coughlin are still the head coaches. Randy Moss is no longer playing in the NFL, while Plaxico Burress was playing in New York… for the Jets last season. Michael Strahan and Rodney Harrison are network analysts.

And the player who caught a TD pass in that game and made this catch:

Is no longer playing in the league.

So… the story line going into this game.

Well, it has taken an entire regular season, but Manning will finally start in a game at Indianapolis.

That’s Eli Manning.

His older brother Peyton, the longtime quarterback of the Indianapolis Colts, missed the entire season due to recovering from off season neck surgery. It is possible that he might no longer be playing for the Colts in 2012, so stay tuned to that story.

If Eli Manning wins another Super Bowl, it would give him two for his career. Eli Manning would have his eighth career playoff win in eleven playoff games vs. older brother’s record of 9-10. He would also be undefeated against the Patriots, compared to Peyton Manning’s record of 1-2 in the playoffs during the Patriots Brady Era.

The Giants have a deep receiving group with Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks and powerful rushing attack in running back Ahmad Bradshaw. The Patriots much maligned defense is going to have to step up. I think the one thing that sums up the Patriots defense this season is that play in the AFC Championship Game where Sterling Moore knocked the pass away. Sure, they may give up a lot of yards, BUT the important statistic is on the score board.

On the defense, the Giants have playmakers in defensive linemen Jason Pierre-Paul, Chris Canty, Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and linebacker Mathias Kiwanuka. The Patriots offensive line is going to have their hands full in trying to keep Tom Brady upright.

To counter the Giants aggressive pass rush, they are going to have to utilize their tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski in blocking. That was something they didn’t have in Super Bowl XLII.

In addition, Gronkowski will be playing this game after suffering a high ankle sprain in the AFC Title Game against the Ravens. How much will that factor in his effectiveness?

Expect receiver Wes Welker, who led the league in with 122 catches and caught 11 passes in Super Bowl XLII, to be Tom Brady’s number one target.

Oh… and Welker too caught a 99-yard pass this season also.

Also, you know who wasn’t on that 2007 Patriots team…? Wide receiver Deion Branch, MVP of Super Bowl XXXIX. Another target that Tom Brady likes.

So… who do I like…?

Well, it seems like everyone is favoring the Giants. The line is Patriots is by 3 with an over/under of 53.5…. use that information as you see fit.

If you have noticed about this season, New England seems to be on this revenge tour. Since their last Super Bowl win the Patriots are 5-5 with one Super Bowl loss and two home playoff game losses.

2011 OPPONENT	KEY LOSS	2011 RESULT
Jets	Lost in 2010 AFC Divisional Round	Season Sweep
Colts	2009 “Fourth and 2”	Beat Colts at home (sans Peyton)
Broncos	Lost in 2005 AFC Divisional Round	Won in Denver in regular season, 45-10 win in playoffs
Ravens	Loss in 2009 Wild Card Round	Won AFC Title Game
Giants	Super Bowl XLII	Lost regular season matchup, Super Bowl XLVI rematch

I think the Patriots are willing to point out that hey… we’re pretty good here too; we won three Super Bowls during the 2000s.

During the presentation of the Lamar Hunt Trophy, Tom Brady had this to say to CBS’s Jim Nantz:

I don’t think he is going to have a repeat performance of that game.

In addition, Indianapolis was the site of one of the most embarrassing losses in recent Patriots history. Having a 34-14 lead against the Colts in Indianapolis in 2009, it appeared that the Patriots were going to run them out of the stadium. Then Peyton Manning led two scoring drives to cut the Patriots lead down to 6.

And then… “Fourth and 2”

I originally picked the Patriots after the matchup was determined, and now I still feel that way. Yes, I did pick the Patriots when they played the Giants in New England earlier this season. That was a close game and I expect the same with this game as well.

It will be another close Super Bowl. I like this.

Enjoy the commercials, Madonna, and most importantly the game.

THE PICK: Patriots 28, Giants 27

MVP PICK: Tom Brady