CONCLUSION
I am now well aware that there are still Primary Races still to be determined thanks to a vigilant reader. The last one will take place in Hawaii on September 18, 2010.
My focus in this series was to focus on some of the races taking place across the nation. A couple of big name stories and some that I find interesting.
So, what does this all mean so far?
Well, for starters, the Republican Party has now openly aligned itself with the Tea Party. Recently, Rep. Instantly there have been comparisons to 1994: the last time Democrats had control of both the White House and Congress. I will agree there are some similarities between 1994 and 2010 such as the pursuing of a health care bill during the first session of Congress of a new Presidential administration and the sharp rise in conservative media figure heads. (Analogy time- Limbaugh : 1994 :: Beck : 2010)
However, there is one election that is a lot closer to 2010. Look at the political and economic climate heading into the 1982 mid-terms: president with low job approval rating, economy not recovering as quickly as expected. Again, another piece about how 2010 is not going to be like 1994, but more of a repeat of 1982.
Interesting, I don’t remember 1982… oh wait.
There is also one huge difference between 1994 and 2010: Republicans were winning special elections back then. They are not today. Anyone remember NY-23? How about PA-12? So far the only special election that the GOP can claim is HI-1 but that race was gift wrapped to them because of Democratic infighting at the state party level.
Right now the Democrats are the majority party and when things are not going well, the majority party is to blame. There are anti-incumbency feelings on BOTH sides of the aisle. Oh, there is anti-incumbency feeling on the Democratic side, not as vocal as on the Republican side though. Case in point: Blanche Lincoln surviving her primary election in Arkansas. Her positions such as threatening to filibuster the health care bill and her platform on environmental issues caused her to alienate Progressives and caused many to flock to her primary opponent Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. Somehow she was able to survive the primary and win the primary runoff election, but because she is unpopular polling is showing that she will lose to her opponent John Boozman… big time.
And now the Republican feeling towards incumbents…
I think those feelings can be traced to November 4, 2008 at exactly 10 PM Central Time…
We heard it all from the Republican/Tea Bagger Party. First they say “NO” to everything and claim socialism. Well then by that logic we should do away with public schools, libraries, utilities, Medicare, etc. If fact, Eisenhower is the head socialist in your wacko conspiracy dream world for creating the interstate freeway system.
Then make ridiculous claims that we should do away with the following amendments: 14th (citizenship requirements), 17th (direct election of Senators), and 24th (poll tax banned).
Acctually, if you did some reading, repealing the 17th Amendment would be beneficial… to Democrats.
Next, run on platforms that don’t make sense or are completely backwards for today (see Part 2, Texas GOP Platform) and were clearly written by Beck, Palin, and anyone else in the conservative echo chamber (FACT: I can put together a more clear and concise though than any ten of them put together. FACT!).
And if you don’t get your way, incite fear and violence. “We’ll secede!” “Second Amendment Remedies” “The Tenth Amendment!”
Yeesh… see my point?
Yes, as I said before, there are anti-incumbency feelings on both sides of the aisle but once again the Republican anti-incumbency feeling is louder and more noticeable than the Democratic anti-incumbency feeling.
Well… what does this mean for the upcoming mid-terms?
Colorado’s recent history as a state with a moderate streak combined with its gubernatorial election can give a preview of what is to come. I think everyone already knows this: the Tea Bagger movement will hurt the Republican Party. I could see scenarios where the one of the candidates in the Republican Primary election opts to run as a third party candidate (case in point: Tom Tancredo, NY-23, Florida’s US Senate Election). Right now NY-23 is only proof of where the Democrat won, but of course this happened after the REPUBLICAN candidate was forced out of the race by the Tea Party. Later, the Republican candidate ENDORSED the Democratic candidate.
Florida’s US Senate Race (and I recently had a talk with a friend about this) could be very interesting. Fivethirtyeight.com as of right now, has a 58% chance of Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL) winning that seat in part due to his name recognition and he was driven out of the Republican primary.
Except for those anomalies, I do not see this wave of new bodies being sworn into Congress on January 3, 2011. Incumbents will survive.
If I had to offer a guess right now (and REMEMBER I can change this prediction at any time between now and November 2, 2010)…
The outlook is not looking good for Democrats because as I stated before they are the majority party, but I think they will survive. It is not going to be this big wave. The Republicans will think they have made some noise, but they will still remain the minority party in both chambers of Congress.
The Democratic majorities in the House and Senate will shrink.
The number of seats the Democrats will control in the House: 235. The Blue Dog Dem Caucus will lose some members but will survive.
In the Senate: 51 plus Liebermann and Sanders will give the Democrats 53 seats. Charlie Crist has a good chance of winning in Florida. Once again, the numbers.
Overall, this should be one of the more memorable mid-term elections in recent memory.
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