Here is an expanded explanation for my wild card picks as explained from a previous post.
Times are MT
COLTS AT TEXANS, SATURDAY 2:30PM ABC/ESPN
The playoffs start in Houston between AFC South rivals Indianapolis and Houston
The season series was split as each team won as the away team, the Texans won at Indianapolis 37-34 in overtime in Week 4 while the Colts returned the favor with a 24-21 win in Houston breaking the Texans 9-game winning streak.
At the start of the season, I mentioned that the Texans should be considered an AFC darkhorse given their defense and mobile quarterback DeShaun Jackson as well as receiver DeAndre Hopkins who had 115 catches and zero drops and the return of JJ Watt leading the Texans Bulls on Parade defense.
But the Colts defense is worth recognizing as well. Rookie linebacker Darius Leonard led the league in tackles with 163 and along with teammate left guard Quenton Nelson became the first rookies from the same team to be named to the All-Pro first squad since 1965. The other players to achieve that notoriety was Gale Sayers and Dick Butkus of the Chicago Bears.
The Colts return to contender status due to Andrew Luck’s return from a shoulder injury that wiped out his 2017 season. Luck will likely have the Comeback Player of the Year award wrapped up and should add to the resume with a playoff run starting with a win over the Texans.
COLTS 31, TEXANS 27
SEAHAWKS AT COWBOYS, SATURDAY 6PM FOX
These are two different teams when they played in Seattle earlier in the season. Seattle won 27-13. It appeared that Dallas was headed towards a lost season before bottoming out at 3-5 and winning 7 of their final 8 to claim the NFC East.
Much of that winning streak is attributed to the midseason trade for receiver Amari Cooper from the Raiders. Cooper was key in wins over Washington and Philadelphia that propelled the Cowboys to first place in the division that they held on for the rest of the season.
The Dallas defense was also key in their winning ways particularly in their win over the Saints a week after Thanksgiving
Many people – including myself – wrote the Seahawks off as also rans in the NFC. While they did not win the division, they claimed the NFC’s 5-seed with home wins over the Vikings, Packers, and Chiefs and a road win over Carolina.
While both teams were aware of their playoff seeding last week, they still played many of their starters in order to generate some form of momentum heading into the playoffs. Both teams won last week – Dallas in a dramatic 36-35 win at the Giants and the Seahawks over the Cardinals.
AT&T Stadium (AKA Jerry World, The Death Star) has been criticized as not being favorable for the Cowboys due to that many of their games have the feel of a neutral site and even at times taken over by the opposing team. That has not been the case in 2018 where the Cowboys have gone 7-1 at home with their only loss being to the Titans on Monday night in November.
While much of the focus on the Cowboys has been on the offensive trio of Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliot, and Amari Cooper, it has been the linebacker trio of Jaylon Smith, Leighton Vander Esch, and Sean Lee. Their win over the Saints was a coming out party of sorts for their defense as the limited the Saints to 10 points and Drew Brees to 127 yards passing.
Russell Wilson has put himself in the MVP discussion with performances against the 49ers, Packers, and Chiefs at home. This is not Wilson’s first foray into the playoffs as he led the Seahawks to 2 Super Bowls winning one them. If the Seahawks are to advance to the next round, they will need to get off to a fast start due to Dallas’ defense smothers opponents and forces them to have to play catch-up for the rest of the game.
Even if this game was being played in Seattle (like in the 2006 Wild Card), I would still pick Dallas due to their defense and their ability to run the ball with Elliot to chew up clock and limit the Seahawks’ possessions.
COWBOYS 23, SEAHAWKS 20
CHARGERS AT RAVENS, SUNDAY 11AM CBS
12 days ago these teams met in Los Angeles and the Ravens came away with with a 22-10 win that was secured by a late fumble recovery for touchdown. The loss bumped the Chargers down to the AFC 5-seed and forced them to play this weekend. Meanwhile that win as well as their win over the Browns the following week was secured by linebacker CJ Mosley’s interception that clinched the AFC North.
The Chargers are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball while the Ravens - much like their 2000 Super Bowl champion team - are loaded on defense and like the 2012 team might be peaking at the right time. The Ravens have won 6 of their last 7 with their only loss coming in overtime against the 1-seeded Chiefs.
I think the Chargers will be better prepared this time around to deal with the Ravens rushing attack.
CHARGERS 21, RAVENS 17
EAGLES AT BEARS, NBC 2:30PM SUNDAY
It appeared that the Eagles Super Bowl title defense would end prematurely after their 29-23 overtime loss in Dallas and losing starting quarterback Carson Wentz for the remainder of the season.
Nick Foles, the MVP of Super Bowl LII, rescued the Eagles from playoff elimination and led them to wins over the playoff bound Rams and Texans and a 24-0 win at Washington who just playing out the string.
The Eagles got help when the Vikings lost at home
To the Bears
The Bears are the other playoff team to benefit from a Raiders trade. Prior to the regular season, the Bears received linebacker Khalil Mack via trade and has paid off dividends leading to their first playoff appearance since 2010 when they won the division and appeared in the NFC Championship.
Chicago who was guaranteed no lower than the NFC 3-seed could have rested their starters and allowed for a re-match with the Vikings this weekend but the NFC 2-seed was in play due to their win over the Rams. The Rams - who will play next Saturday - secured the 2-seed with a win over the 49ers in Los Angeles.
Chicago wanted the defending Super Bowl champions and they certainly will get them.
The Eagles played up their role as underdogs during the stretch run and the playoffs last season in their quest to claim their first NFL Championship since 1960. Philadelphia will have a daunting task since they will have to play all of their games on the road and they are nearly a touchdown underdog against the Bears.
Chicago certainly has shown they can match with the best in the NFL having beat the Seahawks, Rams, and at home against the Packers to clinch the division
So I guess what I am saying is...
BEARS 23, EAGLES 16
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