ELECTION 2018 PREDICTIONS

Hopefully I am right about my 2018 predictions in comparison to my 2016 predictions

Let’s get them in print anyways

COLORADO

As early as yesterday evening, Republicans had a 1300 vote lead in ballots returned. Monday morning, Democrats had a 4700-vote lead. It has been going back and forth since when ballots were sent out nearly three weeks ago. The problem for Republicans is that they were behind their 2014 day-before vote while Democrats are ahead of their 2014 day-before vote.

Unaffiliated voters are key and they participated in the June 2018 Democratic primary more than in the Republican primary.

Any polling out of Colorado has shown Congressman Jared Polis with a consistent lead of about 7 points over Treasurer Walker Stapleton. The polling has been few and far but there really has not been too many shakeups in this race. The Stapleton campaign – or rather its supporters – have aired ads that the local news media has called them false. Many political forecasters have this race rated Lean D but have failed to take into account Trump’s popularity in this state (it stinks), Clinton carried Colorado 48-43 in 2016, Governor Hickenlooper was comfortably elected in 2010 when the Republican Party in this state imploded on the gubernatorial ballot when Tom Tancredo opted to run third-party followed by in 2014 Hickenlooper survived a Republican wave election that saw Cory Gardner elected to the senate, and Democrats have matched Republicans in registration advantage.

Not only are Democrats almost matching Republicans in ballots returned, but they are also matching – and in some instances – outpacing them in they key counties one would need to win a Colorado statewide such as Jefferson and Adams Counties.

I expect Jared Polis to easily win the governor’s race.

As for the other statewide elections (Attorney General, Treasurer, Secretary of State), it is possible that Democrats will sweep them. The Republican Attorneys General Association has pumped a lot of money into the George Brauchler campaign. Brauchler, as you recall, was the Arapahoe County district attorney who tried to get a death penalty sentence in the 2012 Aurora theater shooting. Instead, the jury sentenced the shooter to life in prison. Phil Weiser, who survived a close primary with State Representative Joe Salazar, has touted his credentials of clerking for Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg and his involvement with the Bill Clinton and Barack Obama administrations as well as stating in his ads what an attorney general can do to counter the Trump administration.

Treasurer could flip due to Walker Stapleton’s time in that office was less than satisfactory and became an issue in the gubernatorial campaign.

The only statewide race I could see Republicans holding on is Secretary of State. Wayne Williams narrowly defeated Joe Neguse – who is running in CO-2 – in 2014 but is facing a strong challenge from Jena Griswold. Griswold has aired an ad sharing her life story and stating that she will fight for Coloradans right to vote. While Colorado has some of the better voting laws in the country, they can be improved.

If Polis comfortably wins the gubernatorial, followed by Weiser as Attorney General, then Dave Young as Treasurer, there is a good chance that Jena Griswold will win that race.

Democratic successes statewide will trickle down into legislative races. Per Daily Kos, Clinton won 40 out of 65 state house districts and 21 out of 35 state senate districts in 2016. Those results yielded a 37-29 Democratic advantage in the House and unfortunately an 18-17 Republican advantage in the Senate.

Democrats are poised to hold on to the House. For starters, Democrats are already up 6-0 due to either facing a third-party challenger or – in the instance of my state rep Leslie Herod – no general election challenger. In the June primaries, Democrats had more voters in 43 out of 65 seats. The one race I am paying attention to will be Briana Titone, a transgender woman running in HD-27 hoping to replicate Danica Roem’s success in Virginia. The race became more competitive after Lang Sias was picked by Stapleton as his running mate and already was due to Clinton barely winning that district in 2016 45.58-45.51 and Democrats having a nearly 1350 vote advantage from the June primary.

17 seats are up in the state senate in 2018. There are two Republican seats that Clinton won that are up this year – Senate Districts 16 and 24.

Republicans Tim Neville in 16 and Beth Humenik in 24 both won their elections by similar 51-49 results in 2014 but Clinton carried their districts with similar 50-41 results.

If the Democratic advantage holds in Jefferson (SD-16) and Adams (SD-24), Democrats will flip the senate and have unified control of the Colorado General Assembly. The only race where Republicans could get a pickup is in SD-5 represented by Kerry Donovan who won her race 49-46.7 in 2014 and Clinton carried her district in 2016 by an almost similar result that mirrored the Clinton Colorado 48-43 win.

As for congressional races expect CO-1 (DeGette), CO-2 (Neguse), and CO-7 (Perlmutter) to be called when the polls close in this state at 7PM (Mountain). Neguse, the son of Eritrean refuges and bit of a Simpsons geek, will become the first member of the Congressional Black Caucus from Colorado. CO-1 is Denver and Ed Perlmutter has won every congressional race in the Jefferson County based CO-7 by double digits.

Same goes for CO-4 (Buck) and CO-5 (Lamborn). Republicans have the advantage of geography as that CO-4 is the eastern plains and CO-5 is Colorado Springs. Lamborn would be the ideal pickoff opportunity for Democrats due to only clearing 51% in the June primary and regularly receives a challenge from his right flank that fizzles out in the end but unfortunately a lot of things would have to go right for Stephany Spaulding to win this election such as overcoming the massive Republican voter registration in this district.

CO-3 could be in play given the magnitude of the Democratic wave. The district is rated R+6 per Cook and has four Obama-Trump counties in this district. Once again, geography could play a role and save Scott Tipton in this western-slope based district.

Finally, CO-6, the big one

This has been targeted by both parties. It is one of the few swing districts in the country and one of the 25 districts that Clinton won in 2016 that was won by a Republican.

Over the last three election cycles Democrats have tried to turf out Mike Coffman. The closest they came was in 2012, losing by less than 4 points.

This could be the year where Coffman’s time in Colorado has come to an end.

After pledging that he would stand up to Trump, Coffman voted with Trump over 95% of the time according to FiveThirtyEight. Coffman has been seen far and few in-between in his Aurora based district. Even when he does hold town halls, he limits access to them and has been seen fleeing before constituents have a chance to answer questions.

While Republicans and their allied organizations have poured money to prop up Coffman for one more term, it appears that it has not worked. Polls show a close race but to the advantage of Jason Crow. Again, if Democrats end up winning the ballot race between Republicans or stay within a reasonable distance statewide and this holds true in the Adams County based CO-6, then Crow should be in Congress come next January.

SPEAKING OF CONGRESS

I think we are headed towards a split chamber as it was after the 2010 midterms.

I see the House flipping to the Democrats but it will be close. Democrats have enjoyed an almost 7-8-point advantage in the generic Congressional ballot and that could be enough to overcome the geographic advantage Republicans created after the 2010 elections when several state legislatures – such as Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas – redrew congressional districts to ensure that Republicans could stave off a slight Democratic push. In 2012, as Obama won 51-47 in the national popular vote and a sizeable electoral college majority, Democratic candidates for the House won 1.4 million more votes, but Republicans retained a 235-200 majority. The Brennan Center of Justice does not think that will be enough to overcome the Republican gerrymander as they think it will take a double-digit advantage to do so.

There is some evidence to that. In 2017, as Virginia Democrats dominated statewide elections of governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, candidates for the state house came within the drawing of lots of winning a 50-50 split in that chamber and that was after eradicating a nearly 2-to-1 Republican advantage in that chamber.

Virginia 2017 is certainly a piece to how the 2018 midterms could play out. Trump may be very popular in the rural parts which Republicans did very well to win Virginia had it been 2013. Unfortunately for them, there was sizable backlash in urban and suburban areas to overcome that rural surge.

Same for Doug Jones’ win in Alabama in 2017 and Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania before the court ordered the state to redraw its districts. That also helps the Democrats as well.

Keep in mind that Democrats have been turning out for down ballot special elections to flip state legislative seats in the Trump presidency. As mentioned before with Colorado, that will be the real measure of the blue wave as Republicans are defending seats in Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Kansas, Oklahoma, Illinois, Georgia, and Ohio and countless state legislative seats and other statewide elections.

There are 25 House districts that Clinton won in 2016 that are represented by Republicans as well as several retirements – such as Speaker Paul Ryan who did not have the guts to face his constituents and chose to abandon ship. Democrats are competitive in districts in Virginia, Florida, Texas surrounding the Houston Metro and the DFW Metroplex, Colorado (hello), Kansas, and California.

California could be key as to whether the next speaker is Nancy Pelosi or whomever the Republicans pick as their next leader. It might take some time because California is notoriously slow in counting their ballots and it could be by December that we know who controls the US House.

FiveThirtyEight is giving the Democrats an 85% chance of flipping the House and with that prediction came a word of caution that it is within a polling error in either direction. In one direction, it could mean a massive wave; in the other direction, it will mean Republicans barely hold to the House similar to Trump’s shocking 2016 victory where he essentially ran the table in the blue wall.

Meanwhile in the Senate, the Republicans are given an almost mirror opposite chance, an 85% chance of holding on to the Senate. Democrats have to defend seats in states Trump won – Florida, Indiana, Montana, Missouri, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and West Virginia – as well as Minnesota that Clinton barely won that has both their regular and special election happening.

It appears that incumbent senators in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, West Virginia, and Minnesota are going to win their respective elections. Florida might be breaking for Ben Nelson late due to Andrew Gillum’s gubernatorial campaign in that state. Heitkamp might lose in part due to the state’s voter ID law that directly targets Native Americans. I wouldn’t count out Donnelly, Tester, and McCaskill out yet. Tester and McCaskill won in the Democratic wave year of 2006 and despite fierce Obama opposition in their states, won re-election in 2012. Despite campaigning in Mike Pence’s state, polls have shown Donnelly with a slight lead.

This is part of the reason why Trump has focused on campaigning in Senate races instead of House races. He figures that he could get more bang for his buck given that those states still support him.

This was a bad map for Democrats. Their only pick up opportunities were Nevada, then Arizona, then Texas (a state Trump won but only by 8 points), then Tennessee, and the theoretical possibility of winning the Mississippi special election if the runoff produces a Democrat and Chris McDaniel, a Confederate apologist with links to some very far-right organizations.

And that too could go into overtime as the runoff election would happen three weeks later from today as well as legal challenges if races are too close, automatic recounts, and absentee and overseas ballot counts.

HOUSE: Democrats 225-210

SENATE: Republicans 50-50 (VP Pence tie-breaker)

Brace yourselves for the unexpected though. We might get another disappointing result a la 2016. This will be a long fight ahead of us and we will need as many people with enough fight in their bellies. Don’t get discouraged. We will not win this in one election. It will take several of them.