Much
like in 2012,
I will offer my predictions on the presidential and other key elections across
the country in the lead up to the 2016 Election to take place on 8 November.
The
basis of my prediction is looking at the following electoral maps: FiveThirtyEight,
Talking
Points Memo, New
York Times, Real
Clear Politics, Sabato’s
Crystal Ball, Rothenberg
& Gonzales Political Report, Cook Political
Report, and Princeton Election
Consortium.
I
also factor in history, other races, and what my gut tells me as someone who
has followed politics closely for the last eight years.
TRENDS
Democrats
have to feel pretty good heading into this election. Since 2000, Democrats have
won the popular vote in 3 elections and expanded to Bill Clinton’s win in 1992,
Democrats have won the popular vote in 5 of the last 6.
In
the last four elections, Democrats have consistently won 19 states and DC for a
total of 242 electoral votes, the states the Kerry won in 2004. Meanwhile
Republicans have consistently won 22 states amassing 179 electoral votes which
was McCain’s map in 2008.
That
leaves 9 states and Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district as the political
battlegrounds that will decide the election.
Using
270towin.com’s map at this junction,
Clinton has 52 winning combinations compared to Trump’s 37 winning
combinations. Even though an electoral college tie is highly unlikely
(FiveThirtyEight rates that happening at 0.2%), there are 14 tie possibilities.
3 OUT OF 4
The
states in lighter shades of blue and red are the states that have gone for a
party in three of the last four elections. In 2000, George W. Bush won New
Hampshire and four years later W. Bush lost New Hampshire but traded it in for
Iowa and New Mexico.
The
Obama 2008 victory claimed 9 states from W. Bush’s 2004 victory. Those states
included North Carolina and Indiana as well a unique electoral college feature:
an electoral vote from Nebraska through their rules of electoral vote
allocation which was the first time that ever happened. Four years later, Indiana,
North Carolina, and Nebraska’s 2nd reverted back to the Republicans.
Trump
will carry Indiana due to the fact that Governor Mike Pence is from that state.
Pence was facing a difficult re-election bid in that state.
Factor
in these states, Clinton has a 257-206 advantage over Trump. This is what the electoral map
closely looked like prior to Obama clinching Ohio in 2012 and 206 electoral
votes was what Romney received in 2012.
BELLWETHERS
The
states in purple have gone to the electoral college winner in the last four
elections: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia thus rounding out the
Last Four Map.
Based
on the Last Four Map, all Clinton has to do is win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, or
a combination of Nevada and Colorado. Trump would have to claim Florida, Ohio,
Virginia, and win either Colorado or Nevada.
THE PATH TO 270
Both
campaigns believe they can expand the map. Recent polling shows that Clinton is
leading in Arizona, Georgia, and Missouri. Arizona has only gone to a Democrat
once in the last 50 years when Bill Clinton won the state in his 1996
re-election. Georgia has only gone for a Democrat three times in the last 40
years: favorite son Jimmy Carter won the state in 1976 and 1980, and fellow
southerner Bill Clinton won the state in 1992. Missouri was the
bellwether for a century going for the winner in every election except in
1956. It has since ceded that status having gone for Republicans in the last
two elections, but it could become a presidential battleground again due to
competitive senate and gubernatorial elections.
Meanwhile
the Trump campaign believes their path to victory goes through the Midwest
starting with Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. The
campaign believes that there are enough of Trump’s supporters, specifically
white working class voters and those without college degrees, to flip those
states.
The
problem why the Trump strategy is doomed because
there are not enough of those voters for Trump to win over. In addition, the
belief that there are all these hidden Reagan Democrats in those states is a
myth. The only place where you are likely to find those people is going to
be in a cemetery. Also as shown in the previous presidential election, Obama
won Democrats 92-7 while Romney won Republicans 93-6. While the idea of cross-party voting is
becoming less often today given the hyperpartisan environment that exists, it
is more likely that Republicans are going to vote for Clinton or cast a ballot
for a third party candidate than Democrats crossing over to vote for Donald
Trump.
Then
there is history both recent and distant. In recent history, Michigan is likely
to remain in the Democratic column this cycle because of the fallout over the
lead poisoning crisis in Flint. Republicans control the state legislature and
governorship in Michigan so anyone telling you that Democrats control the state
is full of it. Their attempts to run government as a business has been a
catastrophe and should serve as a cautionary tale on why claiming business
experience for being president is not a positive attribute.
Minnesota
hasn’t gone for a Republican since 1972. Probably the trauma
of voting for Nixon caused the state a blue tint since then. While the House
Speaker, Republican Party Chairman, and one of the Republican primary candidates
that ran for president are all from Wisconsin, the state hasn’t gone for a
Republican presidential candidate since Reagan’s re-election.
Pennsylvania
has been described as a Republican white whale. The last time a Republican
carried this state was in George H.W. Bush’s 1988 election. Since then, no
Republican has carried the state and has always traveled to the Keystone State
in the final days of the campaign in a Herculean effort to flip the state
despite having pulled out operations long ago. It didn’t work in 2008 nor did
it work in 2012 and you can bet that either Trump or Pence will travel to
Pennsylvania in the final days of the campaign to try to turn the state red.
Current polling shows Clinton with a double digit lead in Pennsylvania in part
due to Philadelphia and the associated suburbs strongly going for her.
Ohio
is a reliable bellwether. The last time Ohio was wrong in a presidential
election was in 1960 when it cast their votes for Richard Nixon over John F
Kennedy. And since the creation of the party in 1854, no Republican has won the
White House without Ohio.
Republicans
crossing over to vote for Clinton or a third party due to Trump is likely the
reason why the Clinton campaign believes they have a chance at flipping
Arizona, Georgia, and Missouri. Demographic shifts are why Arizona and Georgia
are likely to be competitive this cycle. Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric that
specifically targets the Latino/Hispanic demographic is why Clinton is likely
to win Colorado, Florida, New Mexico, and Nevada. Georgia is widely believed to
be an emerging battleground with good reason but also with cautious optimism as
well.
Obama
lost Georgia in 2008
by 5 points. It was
third closest in terms of Obama loss; the closest was Missouri which he
lost by 0.13%. Four
years later Obama lost Georgia by less than 8 points and was
one of five states Obama lost by single digits. As pointed out by “How
Barack Obama Won”, Georgia is certainly a series of “what ifs” for the Obama
team in 2008. Looking back at what I wrote in 2012 on Georgia, I still stand by
those observations.
Georgia might be a battleground down the
road. It might also be an example in missed opportunities. In 2008, McCain won
the state by 5 points. The race was tightening up as Election Day drew near,
but the Obama campaign made a decision to not challenge Georgia. Yeah, Georgia
currently has 16 electoral votes which is more than North Carolina, Virginia,
Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa, but would it have been worth it to compete in a
state that has little chance of flipping versus competing in a state (like
Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia) that has a greater impact on the electoral
math?
It would have been a calculated risk to
challenge Georgia. You may win Georgia but in return you may lose a key battleground
state because you are concentrating your resources (specifically people and
money) in this effort to flip a fairly reliable red state into the blue column.
Would have an Obama appearance in Atlanta
put Georgia as a last second battleground? Obama regularly appearing in
Indiana, Colorado, and Virginia definitely helped. An appearance in Georgia
might have caused a bounce in Democratic turnout, but I don’t think it would
have flipped the state. In part it had to do with maximizing turnout of black
voters. In 2008, black voters nationally supported Obama 95-4. In Georgia it
was 98-2. It is looking like Obama will carry the black vote again. A National
Journal poll conducted from 27-30 September among black voters showed Obama
winning 98-0. Yes, Mitt Romney got ZERO support in that poll.
Per
Talking Points Memo’s poll tracker, Clinton is enjoying an almost SEVENTY-point
advantage with black voters. A McClatchy/Marist poll conducted 31 July-2
August, Clinton is up 93-2 among black voters. Using Talking Points Memo’s poll
tracker, Clinton led in three straight polls but Trump has regained the lead in
two recent polls to push him to plus-3 in the poll averages.
Now
the cautious optimism portion about Georgia flipping. While there were efforts
to register voters in Georgia in the lead up to the 2014 elections, the losing
streak of Georgia Democrats to win statewide continued as it is in many areas
of the south. Is it possible that Clinton could break the cycle and give Democrats
in highly urbanized southern states such as Georgia and Texas hope that they
could win? I would say yes, but it is going to take a lot of ground work to
make that happen.
PREDICTION TIME (INSIDE 90 DAYS OUT)
My
initial 2012 prediction was the final outcome of the election. Like a doofus I
wrongly predicted on the day of the election that Florida would go for Romney
when I should have stuck with my guns.
Using
the starting map, Clinton will have 242 electoral votes to Trump’s 179. Even
though Trump is from New York as is Clinton, he is not winning the state as his
campaign claims they will. Also Trump is not winning Pennsylvania. In part this
is due to the Clinton campaign having an almost 10:1 advantage nationally in
staffers on the ground than the Trump campaign.
It
is also another reason why Trump is not winning Colorado. I may be biased
because it is the state where I currently reside, but Democrats know how to win
in this state as proven in 2008, the US Senate race in 2010, 2012, and the 2014
gubernatorial as well as in downballots to defeat personhood and keep at least
one portion of the state legislature blue. The Clinton campaign is confident in
their efforts of carrying Colorado that they have pulled ads for the time
being. I will expect to see them again after Labor Day.
I
have yet to see a Trump ad on television, and the Trump effect will play a role
in key downballot races in Colorado. Republican Senate candidate Daryl Glenn
said after winning his primary in June that he would stand on stage with Trump
if he came to Colorado. Trump has made two appearances in this state since
Glenn’s victory – the first at the Western Conservative Summit days after the
Colorado Primary and the second was a two-city tour after the nomination – and
Glenn was nowhere to be found. The Republican Party is not putting resources
into his efforts to unseat incumbent Senator Michael Bennett and it will likely
be a Democratic hold.
US
House candidates in Colorado are doing what they can to connect Trump to their
Republican opponents specifically in Colorado’s 6th and 3rd congressional
districts in the difficult task to unseat incumbents. The 6th is located
primarily in Aurora and is one of the few competitive House races in the
country while the 3rd is the Western Slope with portions of Pueblo and southern
Colorado. The 3rd leans more Republican but could be flipped given Trump’s
toxicity.
New
Mexico and Nevada have similar demographics as Colorado specifically a large
Latino/Hispanic demographic. In an appearance in New Mexico, Trump insulted
Governor Susan Martinez, a fellow Republican but also the only Latina governor
in the United States at this time.
Indiana
will go for Trump in part due to Governor Pence is from that state and is on
the ticket. Though I could see a scenario where Clinton wins that state, it is
a longshot at best.
Maybe
Nebraska’s 2nd repeats what it did in 2008. FiveThirtyEight’s polls-only
forecast says Clinton has a 50-50 shot of winning that district. It was why she
was in Omaha stumping with (actual) billionaire Warren Buffett.
And,
yes Maine does that too. Trump was in Maine earlier this month but he wasn’t
stumping in Maine’s 2nd. He was in Portland which is not in that district.
Clinton will claim all of Maine’s electoral votes.
Adding
Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), and Nevada (6) to the Clinton column and Indiana
(11) to the Trump column makes it Clinton 262-191.
Recent
polling from Arizona (11) and Georgia (16) could spell trouble for Trump as he
does not have the resources to keep those states if the trends from polling
results continue to be favorable to Clinton and her campaign allocates
resources to flip those states. For now, let’s subtract them from Trump’s
column.
So…
The Watts News Electoral Map is as follows
I
have Clinton 262, Trump 163.
At
this point Clinton needs 8 electoral votes to win the presidency and has seven
paths to 270. For Trump to reach the magic number, Trump has two paths and both
involve him needing to win Arizona, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, AND
Virginia.
Of
the eight states and one congressional district remaining in this map, Obama carried
three states twice (FL, OH, VA). North Carolina and Nebraska’s 2nd were in the
Obama column in 2008.
Clinton’s
running mate, Senator Tim Kaine, is from Virginia. The state is a bellwether
having gone for the electoral winner in the last four elections and is a
blueprint in turning a consistently red state for 40 years into a battleground
in four years to a lean blue state this year. However, there was some luck
involved…
That
video is still up on YouTube today.
I see
Clinton winning Virginia which puts her over 270. Even though Sanders won New
Hampshire in the primary and the Iowa caucus was a close win for her, she will
carry those states in the general. Demographics in Florida will help her win
the state and the lack of organization by the Trump should help her in Ohio.
This pushes her total to 332 which was Obama’s final 2012 tally.
I
haven’t talked about North Carolina. Like Missouri, North Carolina has senate
and gubernatorial elections in the state. The gubernatorial is receiving a lot
of attention due to Governor Pat McCrory signing so-called religious freedom
law that would deny services to LGBT persons due to religious objections
similar to what Governor Pence did as Indiana governor. The law cost Charlotte the
2017 NBA All-Star Game as well as companies and the film industry from doing
business with the state. North Carolina is also home to four universities:
Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State, and Wake Forrest. Trump was quoted
at a primary victory speech saying that he loves the poorly educated.
Well,
the somewhat educated (like yours truly) do not like Trump and that is showing
in polling.
North
Carolina made history in 2008 and I expect they will do it in 2016.
As
of now I am bearish on Arizona and Georgia going for Clinton. The recent
FiveThirtyEight now-cast also has South Carolina (seriously, South Carolina)
trending towards Clinton by giving her a greater than 40% chance of winning the
state. I was shocked to learn the last time the state voted for a Democratic
presidential candidate was in 1976. I figured you had to go way back to the
Solid South days.
Republicans
know that they have tough sledding ahead if they are to win the White House.
Perhaps this cycle they will finally get the message that the country has
indeed changed and it is them that is out of step with America.
ELECTION 2016, POTUS
|
EVs
|
CLINTON
|
348
|
TRUMP
|
190
|
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