Well
in an annual tradition, time to file them under things I have gotten wrong and
start anew.
And
to recap the picks, I offer congratulations to Ms. Monica Roberts on winning our weekly prognostication pool. I guess
some of my good luck from last season rubbed off on her during our long
productive talk in the hotel lobby during the Creating Change conference that
took place in Denver last year.
So
here are my predictions on how the playoffs will shape out and which two teams
will end up in Northern California for Super Bowl L 50 one month from
now.
(read
more)
WILD CARD
Chiefs at Texans
Steelers at Bengals
Seahawks at Vikings
Packers at Washington
DIVISIONAL
Chiefs
at Patriots
Packers
at Cardinals
Seahawks
at Panthers
Steelers at Broncos
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
SUNDAY
Steelers
at Patriots
Cardinals at Panthers
The
Chiefs are a hot team entering the playoffs having won 10 straight after
starting the season 1-5. However, that will be all for naught with a loss at
this stage of the season. One loss and the season is over. If the Chiefs can
keep their winning streak going, they will hoist their first championship since
winning Super Bowl IV in January 1970.
Another
relatively hot team are the Steelers having come into the playoffs winning 4 of
their last 6 including a 33-20 win over the Bengals in Cincinnati and a 34-27
win over the 1-seeded Broncos in Pittsburgh in back-to-back weeks last month.
Pittsburgh almost did not make the playoffs. On the last Sunday of the regular
season, the Steelers needed to beat the Browns (which there was no doubt about
that) and root for the Bills to beat the Jets. Even more remarkable is the
Steelers started 3 different signal callers under center and finished 10-6.
The
Vikings won the NFC North with their 20-13 win over the Packers and their
reward is a home game.
Against
defending NFC Champion Seattle.
As
of late, Russel Wilson has been putting together a case for why he should be
the league MVP. Seattle will probably be relying more on the ground game as
game time temperature in Minneapolis is expected to not get above zero.
As
in zero F.
When
these last two teams faced each other in November, the Seahawks easily defeated
the Vikings in Minneapolis 38-7.
The
Packers-Washington winner will likely be quickly bounced out in the divisional
round. If the Vikings win, then the winner of this game gets to face 1-seeded
Carolina and Cam Newton in Charlotte. If the Seahawks win, then it is to
Phoenix to face the Cardinals and their swarming defense as well as their
capable offense.
Pick
your poison.
As
for the teams with byes, Carolina started the season with 14 straight wins but
split their final two games. In the Super Bowl era (1966-now), 6 teams have won
15 or more regular season games. The first two teams who achieved this feat won
the Super Bowl in consecutive seasons: the 1984 49ers and 1985 Bears.
Since
then, it has not been a mark of post-season success. The Vikings in 1998 were
15-1 in part due the wide receiver duo of Cris Carter and rookie Randy Moss. In
the NFC Championship Game, Gary Anderson missed a field goal that would have
sent the Vikings to their first Super Bowl in 22 years. In overtime, Atlanta’s
Morten Andersen kicked a field goal to send the Falcons to their first and only
Super Bowl where they were blown out by the Broncos 34-19 in John Elway’s final
game.
In
2004, Ben Roethlisberger took over for an injured Tommy Maddox in Week 2 and
from Week 3 onward started under center for the Steelers. Pittsburgh won the
AFC North and were the 1-seed. Also during the season in back-to-back weeks the
Steelers gave the Eagles their first loss of the season and ended the Patriots regular-season
winning streak that started from the previous season. Their season almost ended
in the divisional round but survived overtime against the 6-seeded Jets. The
following week, Pittsburgh’s season ended at home with a 41-27 loss to the
Patriots who went on to win their third Super Bowl in four seasons.
Speaking
of the Patriots, 2007. Perfect regular season, heavy favorites to win the Super
Bowl, Michael Strahan barking on the sideline “17-14 will be the final score,”
Eli Manning to David Tyree, touchdown Plaxico Burress, and “The Patriots will
not be perfect.”
In
2011, the Packers were the defending Super Bowl champions. And they kept on
winning until a late season loss at Kansas City. Green Bay finished 15-1 and were
the NFC 1-seed. It looked like the Packers were going to win another Lombardi
Trophy. And then they played the eventual Super Bowl champion Giants in the
divisional round. And the game wasn’t even close.
The
Broncos might have the 1-seed but have now made a decision at quarterback: the
team is starting Peyton Manning over Brock Osweiler. In last Sunday’s game
against the Chargers, Manning replaced Osweiler to lead the Broncos in two
second-half touchdown drives that clinched the win, the division, and the AFC
1-seed. If Manning should struggle, don’t be surprised if coach Gary Kubiak puts
Osweiler back in.
I
have yet to mention the Cardinals. I know they match up well against the
Vikings after that 23-20 win on a Thursday night in December. They destroyed
the Packers in Week 16. Arizona split the season series with Seattle having won
39-32 in Seattle but then not showing up with the NFC 1-seed potentially on the
line last week at home.
And
now for the Super Bowl…
SUPER BOWL 50
I
think the Cardinals can go into Charlotte and give the Panthers a game, perhaps
come away with a win. So entering the playoffs, the Cardinals are my (heavily
revised) NFC Champion.
If
the AFC championship game is between the Steelers and Patriots, the winner of
that game will likely win the Super Bowl. At the beginning of the season I said
the Patriots were going to win it all again. So I really see no reason to
change that prediction.
Patriots over Cardinals
