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Me
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Eli
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WEEK
12
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10-6
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11-5
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7-9
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TOTAL
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111-63
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111-65
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106-70
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MUST WATCH GAMES
Packers at Lions
Last
month the Lions did something they haven’t done in 14 years: beat the Packers
in Wisconsin.
The
year was 1991 and it
was also the last time the Lions swept the Packers in a regular season series.
Detroit
opened the season losing 6 of the first 7 games prior to their bye week. Since
then the Lions have roared their way to 3 straight wins including the
previously mentioned 18-16 win at Green Bay and a 45-14 win over the Eagles on
national television on Thanksgiving.
Clearly
the Packers bye week was not kind to them. Green Bay started 6-0, but since
then they have lost 4 of their last 5 games. Last week the Packers lost to the
Bears in the Thanksgiving night cap and on the same night the team honored
Brett Favre who regularly victimized the Bears and Lions.
Both
teams need a win; the Packers to keep pace with division leader Minnesota and
the Lions to keep their slim playoff chances alive. Per FiveThirtyEight, the
Packers currently have a 46% chance of winning the NFC North while the Lions
have a 5% chance of making the playoffs.
Jets at Giants
Neither
New York team can afford another loss going forward. If the playoffs started
right now, I would not be talking about the Jets or Giants.
Despite
their record, the Giants have better odds at making the playoffs than the Jets.
FiveThirtyEight puts the Giants chances of winning the NFC East at 45% while
the Jets making the playoffs (likely as one of the two wild card spots) at 18%.
The chances of the Jets winning the division is at <1 a="" chance="" hell.="" in="" is="" nice="" no="" o:p="" of="" saying="" way="" which="">
When
these two teams last met in this stadium, the Jets were the home team in Week
16 in 2011. Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz caught and ran for a 99-yard touchdown pass
which was part of the Giants winning streak en route to their Super Bowl XLVI
victory.
Texans at Bills
Like
the Jets, the Bills are in the same predicament. Despite having a worse record
than the Jets, the Bills have a better chance at making the playoffs… at 22%.
Houston
has seen their playoff chances improve since their 3-5 start. Since their bye
week, the Texans have won three straight and currently have a 49% chance of making
the playoffs and a 36% chance of winning the AFC South. Another win should
increase their playoff chances to above 50% and push their AFC South division
title hopes higher.
Falcons at Buccaneers
Waitasecond?!
The
Falcons are 6-5 and the Buccaneers at 5-6…? And one of Tampa’s wins is against
the Falcons?!
And
FiveThirtyEight is giving the Buccaneers a 53% chance of winning this game…?
Seahawks at Vikings
Seattle
has made the playoffs for 3 consecutive seasons while the Vikings are leading
the NFC North and currently have the NFC 3-seed. Minnesota could improve their
playoff standing with a win this week and next week in Phoenix.
The
best Seattle can hope for is to claim one of the two wild card spots given the
Cardinals lead the division by 3 games as well as a 3-1 division record and
already have a win against the Seahawks. While at times last week against
Pittsburgh Seattle’s secondary looked like its former self intercepting 4
passes, giving up 30 points and 480 yards passing will not win too many games.
Bengals at Browns/Broncos at Chargers/Eagles
at Patriots
The
Bengals, Panthers, and Patriots could be the first teams to clinch playoff
spots on Sunday.
The
Bengals could do it with a win plus a combination of other scenarios.
Despite
losing their first game of the season and a rash of injuries to key players, I
think the Patriots are still in good shape at make the playoffs as the AFC’s
1-seed but cannot afford another loss going forward.
The
Broncos has found a new spark since Brock Oswiller has started under center for
two games. A third straight win will increase the calls for him to take over
the job permanently. The overtime win in the snow in Denver last Sunday night
has put Denver into the race for the AFC 1-seed. The Broncos have a Week 16
showdown against the Bengals in Denver and could overtake them. Then if Denver
and New England are tied, the AFC road to San Francisco goes through Colorado… literally
and figuratively.
Panthers at Saints
So
that leaves the Panthers as the only unbeaten team remaining. And they are not
the best team to start 11-0 in the Super Bowl era.
Hey,
that’s what the
nerds at FiveThirtyEight say. Doubt them at your own peril… like these guys did in
November 2012.
As
for success starting 11-0, it is a mixed bag in terms of post-season success.
All the teams that started 11-0 made the playoffs.
The
1969 Rams were the only team to start 11-0 in the Super Bowl era (1966) that
was pre-merger (1970) and lost their final three regular season games. The Rams
lost in the playoffs to eventual NFL champion Minnesota who lost in Super Bowl
to AFL champion Kansas City.
In
2005 the Colts looked like they could finally win it all. The Colts had two
back-to-back losses in Weeks 15 and 16 against the Chargers and at eventual NFC
Champion Seattle to drop their record to 14-2. The Colts lost in the divisional
round to the Steelers as they became the first 6-seed to win the Super Bowl.
Green
Bay started 11-0 in 2011. Kansas City in Week 15 was their only loss in the
regular season. The Packers lost in the NFC Divisional Round to eventual Super
Bowl champion New York and became the fourth team to win at least 15 games to
fail to win the Super Bowl.
One
of those teams to win at least 15 games and fail to win the Super Bowl was the
2007 Patriots. New England was 11-0 and their next game was close call against
the Ravens in Baltimore. The Patriots would complete a perfect regular season
with a win at the Giants. Nearly a month later it was the Giants who would end
the Patriots quest for perfection in Super Bowl XLII. Per Elo ratings through
11 games, the 2007 Patriots have the highest score of 1806 as well as highest
opponent Elo.
In
1984, the Dolphins looked like they were going to repeat their 1972 season. The
quest for perfection ended with a loss at San Diego in their 12th game. Miami
made it to the Super Bowl but a botched kick
by former kicker Ray Finkle (now Lois Einhorn who is currently serving a
lengthy prison sentence for kidnapping quarterback Dan Marino in 1994) cost the
Dolphins a championship were dominated by the 49ers.
2009
had two teams start 11-0: Saints and Colts. The Saints were the first to lose,
a Week 15 home game against Dallas and finished 13-3. The Colts lost in Week 16
to the Jets and finished 14-2. Both teams had comfortably wrapped their
respective conferences #1 seed and made it to the Super Bowl as the first 1 vs.
1 Super Bowl since January 1994. The Colts lost the game while the Saints won
their first title and became the most recent team to start 11-0 to win the
Super Bowl.
Other
11-0 teams to win it all: the 1998 Broncos in quarterback John Elway’s final
NFL season, Washington in 1991 under Joe Gibbs, the 1985 Bears, and the 1972
Dolphins with their perfect season.
As
of now, Carolina’s Elo might be the worst among teams to start 11-0 but it is the highest so
far in franchise history who came into the NFL in 1995. Currently Carolina’s
Elo is behind the 1972 Dolphins who started play in 1966.
Colts at Steelers
Denver
might be elevating their backup to permanent starter status, but in Indianapolis
Matt Hasselbeck is starter until Luck recovers from his injuries.
The
Steelers are one of those bubble teams. Currently in 8th place, this game and
their next two games could determine if the Steelers play past 3 January 2016.
After this game is at Cincinnati for an early afternoon game against the
Bengals and their home finale against the Broncos in Pittsburgh followed by
their final two games on the road against the Ravens and Browns. Right now
FiveThirtyEight has the Steelers playoff odds at 51%.
Cowboys at Washington
Late
season Monday Night Football games are proof that the when the schedule comes
out in April, the quality of the matchups are really a crapshoot.
I’m
sure when ESPN saw the Monday Night schedule they thought: Dallas at Washington
in December, we’ll get Robert Griffin III and Tony Romo in a late season
matchup with all kinds of playoff implications.
Nope:
it’s Curt Cousins and whoever Dallas can put under center.
Are
there playoff implications? Sure. For Washington, their remaining schedule is
at Chicago, home finale against the Bills, a Saturday game in Philadelphia, and
regular season finale at Dallas. Washington could win the NFC East given how
putrid it is this season. FiveThirtyEight puts their odds of winning the
division at 33%; just making the playoffs is 34%.
As
for the Cowboys, they are still holding out hope they will make the playoffs
and have not put quarterback Tony Romo on season ending injured reserve. 7%
chance of making the playoffs says otherwise.
And
now the picks.
Kickoff
times are Mountain Time
Sunday
afternoon games airing in Denver are noted by (DEN)
Picks
are in BOLD
THURSDAY
NIGHT, NFL/CBS 6PM
Packers at Lions
FOX 11AM
Bengals at Browns (DEN)
Cardinals at Rams
Falcons
at Buccaneers
Seahawks
at Vikings
49ers
at Bears
CBS 11AM
Jets
at Giants
Texans at Bills
Ravens at Dolphins
Jaguars at Titans
FOX 2PM
Eagles
at Patriots (DEN)
Panthers at Saints
CBS 2PM
Broncos at Chargers (DEN)
Chiefs at Raiders
SUNDAY
NIGHT, NBC 6:30 PM
Colts
at Steelers
MONDAY
NIGHT, ESPN 6:30 PM
Cowboys at Washington
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