Thursday, December 6, 2012

2012 NFL SEASON: WEEK 14



Let's start talking about the playoffs...




The NFL playoff picture is getting more and more into focus as the regular season enters the fourth quarter. Right now, four teams have qualified for the playoffs; three in the AFC, one in the NFC. Generally the rule of thumb is that every year there is significant turnover among the previous season's playoff teams and the non-playoff teams. There are several factors that play into this: free agency, other front office moves, the NFL's scheduling formula and the placing of specific games when the schedule comes out in the spring, the NFL Draft, injuries to key players, coaching changes, and et cetera.

Plus there aren't as many post-season berths as the other sports leagues. The NBA and (when they start play again) the NHL grants 16 playoff spots to 30 teams. MLB, another 30-team league, grants 10 spots and two teams in each league play a one-and-done game for the Wild Card entry. College basketball offers 68 spots for the men's championship and still 64 for the ladies.

College football, while does not have a formal tournament at this time, has a bastardized form where at least 15 teams have a shot to win the title in any given year. A combination of what conference you play in, where you start in the initial polls, whether you went undefeated, and if you lost the timing of that defeat. Alabama finished the regular season 11-1 and won the Southeastern Conference and finished better in the BCS than Kansas State and Oregon who also had one loss. Their respective loss took place much later than Alabama's loss. It is why they are playing in the BCS Title Game against undefeated Notre Dame.

Oh and there are politics involved in the polling and number crunching...

The NFL expanded to the current 12-team playoff format in 1990. Since 2002 the NFL offers automatic berths for the eight division champions and the top two non-division champions in each league. Emphasis is placed on winning the division because the reward at a minimum getting a home playoff game. There have been instances where a Wild Card team had to go on the road despite having a better record that the division champion. All I have to say is... gotta win your division.

It appears that in 2012 there might be some stability in the playoff team turnover. Out of the three teams that have qualified for the playoffs in the AFC, all three were in the playoffs last season. New England and Denver return as division champions while Houston has only clinched a playoff spot so far.

Since 2002 when the NFL expanded to 32 teams and the current 8 division format, do you know which years had the highest playoff team turnover? 2003 and 2008 when 8 teams that did not make the playoffs the previous season made the playoffs that season. The normal appears to be 6 new playoff teams every year. In some cases an entire conference almost sees complete turnover of teams; it happened twice with the NFC as they saw 5 new teams in the 2005 and 2008 playoffs.

Compared to the era of 1990-2001 when the NFL expanded the playoff format to 12-teams under the 6 division format, the highest number of new playoff teams from one season to the next was 7 (1992, 1999).

If the playoffs started this weekend, there would be three new teams in the playoffs this season; one in the AFC (the Colts) and two in the NFC (Bears and Seahawks). This would be the lowest number of new teams in the playoffs in the post-2002 re-alignment era since the 2004 season which saw 5 new teams. Including the 1990-2001 12-team playoff expansion era, it is the lowest since 1995 which saw 4 new teams enter the playoffs.

7 of the 8 teams who won their division last season would return to the playoffs this year as repeat champions. Atlanta has guaranteed that there will be a new division champion entering the playoffs this season. Right now Atlanta is only new division champion to enter the playoffs compared with last season 7 of the 8 division champions were new division champions. The last time there was no repeat division champion in a playoff season was 1992, 1998, and 2000 in the 1990-2001 12-team playoff expansion era.

It is looking very likely that the AFC playoff spots might be nailed down very soon. If the Colts, Steelers, and Bengals win this coming weekend, all the AFC teams currently with 8 losses are eliminated from playoff contention. Meanwhile the other 15 teams in the NFC are still in the playoff race... yes, even the Panthers and Eagles sitting with identical 3-9 records. One of those teams need to win out plus a lot of help. The Eagles need to win the NFC East to get in while the Seahawks need a lot of help to win the last Wild Card spot.

Anything and everything can happen between now and the end of the season.

Anyways let's get down to business...

Monica’s lead is gone with four weeks to go. What was I thinking picking New Orleans over the Falcons... at home... and Brees tossing 5 interceptions?! Oh well, thank my good Luck that the Colts beat the Lions on the last play of the game and the Browns suddenly finding out that winning football games are fun.

Let's see if we can take the lead this week over Ms. Roberts. :)

WEEK 13:            10-6
TOTAL:        123-69-1

BREAKDOWN OF RECORD
MONICA
NOON
3PM
NIGHT
HOME
AWAY
TV
≤ 8 PTS
OT
WK 13
9-7
6-3
3-1
1-2
6-2
5-4
3-3
7-5
0-2
TOTAL
123-69-1
71-35
26-19-1
26-15
72-29-1
52-40
55-27
60-46-1
11-7-1

The picks for Week 14 are below.

Kickoff Times are Central Time
Picks Indicated in BOLD
Sunday Day Games for the Dallas-Fort Worth Area are indicated with (DFW)



THURSDAY NIGHT (12/6)
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders, 7:20 PM NFL


SUNDAY (12/9) FOX DOUBLEHEADER

NOON FOX
Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals (DFW)
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
St. Louis Rams at Buffalo Bills

NOON CBS
Baltimore Ravens at Washington Redskins
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars
San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts


3PM FOX
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (DFW)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

3PM CBS
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (DFW)


SUNDAY NIGHT
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, NBC 7:20 PM


MONDAY NIGHT (12/10)
Houston Texans at New England Patriots, 7:30 PM ESPN

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