Let's start talking about the
playoffs...
The NFL playoff picture is getting
more and more into focus as the regular season enters the fourth quarter. Right
now, four teams have qualified for the playoffs; three in the AFC, one in the
NFC. Generally the rule of thumb is that every year there is significant turnover
among the previous season's playoff teams and the non-playoff teams. There are
several factors that play into this: free agency, other front office moves, the
NFL's scheduling formula and the placing of specific games when the schedule
comes out in the spring, the NFL Draft, injuries to key players, coaching
changes, and et cetera.
Plus there aren't as many
post-season berths as the other sports leagues. The NBA and (when they start
play again) the NHL grants 16 playoff spots to 30 teams. MLB, another 30-team
league, grants 10 spots and two teams in each league play a one-and-done game
for the Wild Card entry. College basketball offers 68 spots for the men's
championship and still 64 for the ladies.
College football, while does not
have a formal tournament at this time, has a bastardized form where at least 15
teams have a shot to win the title in any given year. A combination of what
conference you play in, where you start in the initial polls, whether you went
undefeated, and if you lost the timing of that defeat. Alabama finished the
regular season 11-1 and won the Southeastern Conference and finished better in
the BCS than Kansas State and Oregon who also had one loss. Their respective
loss took place much later than Alabama's loss. It is why they are playing in
the BCS Title Game against undefeated Notre Dame.
Oh and there are politics involved
in the polling and number crunching...
The NFL expanded to the current
12-team playoff format in 1990. Since 2002 the NFL offers automatic berths for
the eight division champions and the top two non-division champions in each
league. Emphasis is placed on winning the division because the reward at a
minimum getting a home playoff game. There have been instances where a Wild
Card team had to go on the road despite having a better record that the
division champion. All I have to say is... gotta win your division.
It appears that in 2012 there might
be some stability in the playoff team turnover. Out of the three teams that
have qualified for the playoffs in the AFC, all three were in the playoffs last
season. New England and Denver return as division champions while Houston has
only clinched a playoff spot so far.
Since 2002 when the NFL expanded to
32 teams and the current 8 division format, do you know which years had the
highest playoff team turnover? 2003 and 2008 when 8 teams that did not make the
playoffs the previous season made the playoffs that season. The normal appears
to be 6 new playoff teams every year. In some cases an entire conference almost
sees complete turnover of teams; it happened twice with the NFC as they saw 5
new teams in the 2005 and 2008 playoffs.
Compared to the era of 1990-2001
when the NFL expanded the playoff format to 12-teams under the 6 division
format, the highest number of new playoff teams from one season to the next was
7 (1992, 1999).
If the playoffs started this
weekend, there would be three new teams in the playoffs this season; one in the
AFC (the Colts) and two in the NFC (Bears and Seahawks). This would be the
lowest number of new teams in the playoffs in the post-2002 re-alignment era
since the 2004 season which saw 5 new teams. Including the 1990-2001 12-team
playoff expansion era, it is the lowest since 1995 which saw 4 new teams enter
the playoffs.
7 of the 8 teams who won their
division last season would return to the playoffs this year as repeat
champions. Atlanta has guaranteed that there will be a new division champion
entering the playoffs this season. Right now Atlanta is only new division
champion to enter the playoffs compared with last season 7 of the 8 division
champions were new division champions. The last time there was no repeat
division champion in a playoff season was 1992, 1998, and 2000 in the 1990-2001
12-team playoff expansion era.
It is looking very likely that the
AFC playoff spots might be nailed down very soon. If the Colts, Steelers, and
Bengals win this coming weekend, all the AFC teams currently with 8 losses are
eliminated from playoff contention. Meanwhile the other 15 teams in the NFC are
still in the playoff race... yes, even the Panthers and Eagles sitting with
identical 3-9 records. One of those teams need to win out plus a lot of help.
The Eagles need to win the NFC East to get in while the Seahawks need a lot of
help to win the last Wild Card spot.
Anything and everything can happen
between now and the end of the season.
Anyways let's get down to business...
Monica’s lead is gone with four
weeks to go. What was I thinking picking New Orleans over the Falcons... at
home... and Brees tossing 5 interceptions?! Oh well, thank my good Luck that
the Colts beat the Lions on the last play of the game and the Browns suddenly finding out that winning football games are fun.
Let's see if we can take the lead this week over Ms. Roberts. :)
Let's see if we can take the lead this week over Ms. Roberts. :)
WEEK 13: 10-6
TOTAL: 123-69-1
BREAKDOWN OF RECORD
MONICA
|
NOON
|
3PM
|
NIGHT
|
HOME
|
AWAY
|
TV
|
≤ 8 PTS
|
OT
|
|
WK 13
|
9-7
|
6-3
|
3-1
|
1-2
|
6-2
|
5-4
|
3-3
|
7-5
|
0-2
|
TOTAL
|
123-69-1
|
71-35
|
26-19-1
|
26-15
|
72-29-1
|
52-40
|
55-27
|
60-46-1
|
11-7-1
|
The picks for Week 14 are below.
Kickoff Times are Central Time
Picks Indicated in BOLD
Sunday Day Games for the Dallas-Fort Worth Area are indicated with (DFW)
Picks Indicated in BOLD
Sunday Day Games for the Dallas-Fort Worth Area are indicated with (DFW)
THURSDAY NIGHT (12/6)
Denver
Broncos at Oakland Raiders, 7:20 PM NFL
SUNDAY (12/9) FOX DOUBLEHEADER
NOON FOX
Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals (DFW)
Atlanta
Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Chicago
Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
St.
Louis Rams at Buffalo Bills
NOON CBS
Baltimore
Ravens at Washington Redskins
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns
New
York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars
San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
3PM FOX
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (DFW)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
3PM CBS
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (DFW)
SUNDAY NIGHT
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, NBC 7:20 PM
MONDAY NIGHT (12/10)
Houston
Texans at New England Patriots, 7:30 PM ESPN
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