Who Am I?

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I served in the US Navy from 2002-08; four of those years were as a Nuclear Propulsion Operator aboard an aircraft carrier. I engage in political activism in various Democratic circles when I am able to. I have a cat, and I am an uncle.

All opinions that I express are my own and do not reflect the views of any organization that I represent.

Saturday, October 13, 2012

2012 ELECTION PREDICTION, 24 DAYS UNTIL ELECTION DAY




  

Obama
Toss Ups
Romney
257
90
191
283.1
0
254.9
201
146
191
253
65
220
201
156
181
290
9
239
253
79
206
243
104
191
237
110
191
275
72
191
  

EASTERN FOUR
EVs
538 odds Obama win %
Poll Tracker
Real Clear
Florida
29
33.2
Romney +3.0
Romney +2.0
Ohio
18
63.5
Obama +0.8
Obama +1.3
North Carolina
15
12.9
Romney +1.7
Romney +3.3
Virginia
13
47.5
Romney +1.1
Obama +0.4


TRENDING BLUE
EVs
538 odds Obama win %
Poll Tracker
Real Clear
Pennsylvania
20
89.5
Obama +4.3
Obama +4.5
Michigan
16
92.7
Obama +5.1
Obama +4.4
Wisconsin
10
75.5
Obama +5.7
Obama +2.3
Iowa
6
55.7
Obama +2.4
Obama +3.2
New Hampshire
4
67.5
Obama +0.1
Obama +0.7


WESTERN TWO
EVs
538 odds Obama win %
Poll Tracker
Real Clear
Colorado
9
42.6
Romney +1.7
Romney +0.7
Nevada
6
62.7
Obama +1.5
Obama +1.6


IDEAL
EVs
538 odds Obama win %
Poll Tracker
Real Clear
Georgia
16
0.4
Romney +15
Romney +13.3
Arizona
11
1.4
Romney +7.4
Romney +7.6
Indiana
11
1.5
Leans Romney
Romney +12.3
Missouri
10
2.7
Romney +4.0
Romney +5.2
Montana
3
1.6
Romney +12
Romney +12.4

I think the election now comes down to seven states: The Eastern Four, Western Two, and Iowa. Real Clear is showing Missouri and Michigan as tossups. I can buy Michigan as a potential tossup because their margin shows Obama leading by 3.2 points. But Missouri….? I have it in my Ideal category. Again, Ideal is a “What-If” scenario. Real Clear is classifying Missouri as a toss-up but shows a margin of Romney +5.2. It should be in the Leaning Romney category. Again, if the Senate race shows impact on the Presidential election, I would believe it, but I’m not.

Brace yourselves; we’re going to be talking… MATH!

Romney’s best chances to win are to sweep the Eastern Four and win either one of the Western Two or Iowa. If Obama wins one of the Eastern Four and one of the Western Two or Iowa, for Romney it’s this:


That first debate probably cost Obama Florida as Nate Silver dropped Obama’s odds of winning Florida from 46.2% to barely under 40%. Colorado, where the debate was held, appears to be trending towards Romney, but I have faith that it is still winnable for the President.

Losing those two states would make it Obama 251-229 with 58 votes remaining. It’s not fatal, but the most Obama wins would be 309 electoral votes.

It also puts this scenario in play: a tied Electoral College.

If neither candidate gets 270 Electoral Votes, then the Presidential Election is decided by the US House while the Vice President is selected by the Senate. The last time the President was chosen by the House was in the Election of 1824 where John Quincy Adams won despite Andrew Jackson winning more Electoral Votes. Four years later, Jackson was elected President.

A tied Electoral College would happen if Obama wins Ohio and Romney wins the other Eastern Four States plus the Western Two plus Iowa.

I don’t see that happening… but it is a possibility.

It also shows that Romney can’t win the White House without Ohio. Currently the polls show a neck-and-neck race between the two candidates with Obama leading in 7 of the last 10 polls conducted in the Buckeye State. Now Obama can win without Ohio. Take Ohio away, and all Obama needs is one of the other Eastern Four States (Virginia, North Carolina, or Florida) plus a combination of Iowa or one of the Western Two.

Simply put: the key state is Ohio in the Final Seven. Obama can do without it as there are other paths to 270 but why take that chance. Romney needs it. Without it, the best Romney can hope for is a tie.

It is looking very likely that Ohio will be the deciding state in 2012. Remember what Tim Russert said in 2000…



If he was with us in 2012:



Nate Silver gives Ohio a 4 out of 9 chance of being the deciding state in 2012.

For now the polls appear to be settling after the first debate. Nationally, the race is showing “Too Close To Call.” The reason why I am not discussing National Polls: that is not how we elect the President in the US.

As shown during the Obama Convention Bump, Gallup showed at most a 6 point lead in their Daily Tracker system and it translated to an Obama win in the Electoral College. TPM shows Romney with a 1.2 point lead nationally, but in terms of the Electoral College he is currently at 220 Electoral Votes with a couple of swing states narrowly going for Obama that would put him over 270.

National Polls matter in terms of where the election is going, but the one poll that matters is who has the most Electoral Votes.

Thursday night was the Vice-Presidential debate and the general consensus is that Vice President Biden not just won, but gave a dominating performance over Representative Paul Ryan.

I think Biden blocked Romney’s Surge, but let’s wait a few days before measuring the impact of the debate. There are two more Presidential Debates remaining. The next one is this coming Tuesday Night at Hofstra University in New York.

I still believe in the first electoral map I posted earlier this week. I am just acknowledging the damage that was done from the first debate. Remember, there are only 24 days left until Election Day. A lot can happen between now and then.



ELECTION 2012
EVs
Obama
303
Romney
235

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