2012 ELECTION PREDICTION, 24 DAYS UNTIL ELECTION DAY

  

	Obama	Toss Ups	Romney
Michael’s Rant	257	90	191
538	283.1	0	254.9
270 To Win	201	146	191
TPM	253	65	220
Real Clear	201	156	181
Electoral Vote	290	9	239
Huffington Post	253	79	206
NBC	243	104	191
CNN	237	110	191
Fox News, Karl Rove	275	72	191

  

EASTERN FOUR	EVs	538 odds Obama win %	Poll Tracker	Real Clear
Florida	29	33.2	Romney +3.0	Romney +2.0
Ohio	18	63.5	Obama +0.8	Obama +1.3
North Carolina	15	12.9	Romney +1.7	Romney +3.3
Virginia	13	47.5	Romney +1.1	Obama +0.4

TRENDING BLUE	EVs	538 odds Obama win %	Poll Tracker	Real Clear
Pennsylvania	20	89.5	Obama +4.3	Obama +4.5
Michigan	16	92.7	Obama +5.1	Obama +4.4
Wisconsin	10	75.5	Obama +5.7	Obama +2.3
Iowa	6	55.7	Obama +2.4	Obama +3.2
New Hampshire	4	67.5	Obama +0.1	Obama +0.7

WESTERN TWO	EVs	538 odds Obama win %	Poll Tracker	Real Clear
Colorado	9	42.6	Romney +1.7	Romney +0.7
Nevada	6	62.7	Obama +1.5	Obama +1.6

IDEAL	EVs	538 odds Obama win %	Poll Tracker	Real Clear
Georgia	16	0.4	Romney +15	Romney +13.3
Arizona	11	1.4	Romney +7.4	Romney +7.6
Indiana	11	1.5	Leans Romney	Romney +12.3
Missouri	10	2.7	Romney +4.0	Romney +5.2
Montana	3	1.6	Romney +12	Romney +12.4

I think the election now comes down to seven states: The Eastern Four, Western Two, and Iowa. Real Clear is showing Missouri and Michigan as tossups. I can buy Michigan as a potential tossup because their margin shows Obama leading by 3.2 points. But Missouri….? I have it in my Ideal category. Again, Ideal is a “What-If” scenario. Real Clear is classifying Missouri as a toss-up but shows a margin of Romney +5.2. It should be in the Leaning Romney category. Again, if the Senate race shows impact on the Presidential election, I would believe it, but I’m not.

Brace yourselves; we’re going to be talking… MATH!

Romney’s best chances to win are to sweep the Eastern Four and win either one of the Western Two or Iowa. If Obama wins one of the Eastern Four and one of the Western Two or Iowa, for Romney it’s this:

That first debate probably cost Obama Florida as Nate Silver dropped Obama’s odds of winning Florida from 46.2% to barely under 40%. Colorado, where the debate was held, appears to be trending towards Romney, but I have faith that it is still winnable for the President.

Losing those two states would make it Obama 251-229 with 58 votes remaining. It’s not fatal, but the most Obama wins would be 309 electoral votes.

It also puts this scenario in play: a tied Electoral College.

If neither candidate gets 270 Electoral Votes, then the Presidential Election is decided by the US House while the Vice President is selected by the Senate. The last time the President was chosen by the House was in the Election of 1824 where John Quincy Adams won despite Andrew Jackson winning more Electoral Votes. Four years later, Jackson was elected President.

A tied Electoral College would happen if Obama wins Ohio and Romney wins the other Eastern Four States plus the Western Two plus Iowa.

I don’t see that happening… but it is a possibility.

It also shows that Romney can’t win the White House without Ohio. Currently the polls show a neck-and-neck race between the two candidates with Obama leading in 7 of the last 10 polls conducted in the Buckeye State. Now Obama can win without Ohio. Take Ohio away, and all Obama needs is one of the other Eastern Four States (Virginia, North Carolina, or Florida) plus a combination of Iowa or one of the Western Two.

Simply put: the key state is Ohio in the Final Seven. Obama can do without it as there are other paths to 270 but why take that chance. Romney needs it. Without it, the best Romney can hope for is a tie.

It is looking very likely that Ohio will be the deciding state in 2012. Remember what Tim Russert said in 2000…

If he was with us in 2012:

Nate Silver gives Ohio a 4 out of 9 chance of being the deciding state in 2012.

For now the polls appear to be settling after the first debate. Nationally, the race is showing “Too Close To Call.” The reason why I am not discussing National Polls: that is not how we elect the President in the US.

As shown during the Obama Convention Bump, Gallup showed at most a 6 point lead in their Daily Tracker system and it translated to an Obama win in the Electoral College. TPM shows Romney with a 1.2 point lead nationally, but in terms of the Electoral College he is currently at 220 Electoral Votes with a couple of swing states narrowly going for Obama that would put him over 270.

National Polls matter in terms of where the election is going, but the one poll that matters is who has the most Electoral Votes.

Thursday night was the Vice-Presidential debate and the general consensus is that Vice President Biden not just won, but gave a dominating performance over Representative Paul Ryan.

I think Biden blocked Romney’s Surge, but let’s wait a few days before measuring the impact of the debate. There are two more Presidential Debates remaining. The next one is this coming Tuesday Night at Hofstra University in New York.

I still believe in the first electoral map I posted earlier this week. I am just acknowledging the damage that was done from the first debate. Remember, there are only 24 days left until Election Day. A lot can happen between now and then.

ELECTION 2012	EVs
Obama	303
Romney	235