February was a strange month in
the Republican nomination process.
The month started with Romney
winning Florida and it looked like he was going to cruise his way to the
nomination.
We saw Newt Gingrich fade away to
where he is counting on Georgia being his last hope for another surge.
We witnessed the Santorum Surge…
giggle… with his wins in Colorado and Minnesota. Bonus was his victory in the
Missouri Primary that didn’t count for anything.
Maine’s Caucus produced a result
that raised some eyebrows about the integrity of these results.
Michigan was a win in the popular
vote for Romney, but in the delegate count it was recorded as a tie… then the
Michigan GOP reviewed the results and gave Romney a 2-delegate win.
So… here we are. 10 states, 437
delegates are at stake
POLL CLOSING TIMES
7PM ET Georgia, Vermont, Virginia
7:30PM ET Ohio, North Dakota
8PM ET Massachusetts, Oklahoma,
Tennessee
11PM ET Idaho (split closing
time, polls close at 8PM local time in Idaho)
12AM ET Alaska
So… the predictions for the evening.
Ron Paul will continue his push
for delegates, but he will not win a state. Alaska might be his best shot at a
win because there is a strong Libertarian/Tea Party streak in the state, but
hardly anyone made an appearance there.
Gingrich will win Georgia going
away. Home field advantage plays a role there. I don’t think he’ll meet the
threshold needed for winner-take-all, but he should be in a close race between
him and Santorum.
Speaking of Santorum, I see the
former Pennsylvania Senator winning Oklahoma and Tennessee easily. Senator Tom
Coburn (R-OK) recently gave his endorsement to Mitt Romney. I don’t see that
having an impact on the primary. The impact I have seen on Santorum’s chances
of breaking the winner-take-all threshold of 50% in Oklahoma is his performance
in Michigan. Santorum made it a close race, but he didn’t pull out the victory.
It is expected that he will score in the mid-40s and win a majority of
delegates. Same idea with Tennessee.
Santorum should do well in North
Dakota. I felt that when he brought out that piece of shale rock during his
speech in Michigan he was playing to the gas and oil backers in North Dakota.
But… like Alaska and Idaho, North Dakota is a caucus state and I have not seen
any data. I am basing my predictions on those states on a combination of the
large rural populations and religious demographics.
Now, the supposed front runner:
Mitt Romney. He will easily take Vermont and his state of residency, Massachusetts.
I expect he should make a clean sweep of New England down the road. Idaho, like
Arizona, has a large population of Mormons.
Virginia, thanks to Vice-Presidential
candidate Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, will be an easy win for him. The
Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich campaigns failed to fill out the paperwork
needed to get on the ballot in The Old Dominion State.
So… Ohio…
The last time I checked Nate
Silver’s analysis of the Ohio GOP Primary he gave Romney a 65% chance of
winning. I saw it as a toss-up after Michigan, but after Washington it
progressed to lean Romney.
That might have changed with the
median income in Ohio being around $47,000. The national average is about 51K.
Romney has had trouble among those making less than 200K.
The most recent exit poll is
showing that there is an up-tick of evangelical voters in Ohio. Those factors
may play a factor.
In addition, Ohio has national
implications. It is expected to be a swing stage in the 2012 Presidential
Election. If Romney wins the primary tonight, he has a good shot of winning it
in November. If he underperforms or worse and he is the nominee, then he has a
hole to climb out of.
So… here we go…
ROMNEY
Massachusetts, Vermont, Virginia,
Idaho
He will claim 200 delegates.
SANTORUM
Alaska, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Ohio
Ohio will be a lot closer that
what is expected.
GINGRICH
Georgia… no brainer…
PAUL
No states, but he will be competitive
in Alaska.
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