I
have had some time to digest the election results from 8 November as well as
look at what will happen tomorrow.
There
were some victories.
My
state rep, Leslie Herod, easily won her general election race. Given the
political leanings of the district – located in the heart of Colorado’s 1st congressional
district – the only challenging election she will have will be the Democratic
primary. Colorado has term limits for executive and legislative branch
officials. My representative will be in the Colorado House for 8 years barring
a primary defeat or itching for higher office (state senator, governor, US
House Rep, US Senator, etc.).
Colorado
Democrats kept the state house and increased their majority in that chamber by
3 more seats. They are favored to keep the state house in 2018. State Speaker
of the House Crisanta Duran was elected by a unanimous voice vote and is the
first Latina elected to serve in this position. She delivered a keynote at
the 2016 Democratic National Convention. Speaker
Duran is certainly someone to keep an eye on in the future.
The
US Senate gained four women: Kamala Harris in California, Tammy Duckworth in
Illinois, Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada, and Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire.
I
felt some emotion seeing Senator Duckworth’s swearing-in re-enacting. Not only
did she stand for the ceremony, but she placed her left hand on the
Constitution.
But
unfortunately, those successes are overshadowed by Hillary Clinton’s defeat in
the presidential election. She becomes the fifth presidential candidate to win
the non-binding popular vote but lose the electoral college vote. The others:
Andrew Jackson in 1824 where the election was decided in the House, Samuel
Tilden in 1876, the then-incumbent Grover Cleveland in 1884, and Al Gore, who
served as Bill Clinton’s vice-president, in 2000. This is the second
presidential election in my lifetime where this instance has happened. Trump
lost the national popular vote by more than 2.8 million votes and 2.1
percentage points. Losing by 2.1% is the largest margin of popular vote defeat
for the electoral college winner since 1876.
When
the Electoral College met to officially cast their ballots in December, five
Democratic electors defected while two Republicans electors (from Texas)
defected bringing the final total to Trump 304-227.
Six
states that voted for Obama twice – Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
Wisconsin – went for Trump. Pennsylvania and Michigan last went for a
Republican in 1988. For Wisconsin, it goes back to 1984. Trump picked up an
elector from Maine and it was the first time since the state allocated their
electoral votes by congressional district in 1972, not all of their votes went
to the statewide winner.
Many
forecasters – including
myself – were wrong about the result. In part, it was due to the
information and trends that were available at the time. By most observers,
Clinton won all three debates. The revelation of the Hollywood Access tape came
at a bad time for Trump, and his ability and his campaign team to explain it
made everything worse.
Why
did Clinton lose the electoral vote?
What
did Clinton in was… well… everything.
A Democratic
primary that left those that supported Senator Sanders feeling that they were
left out despite that they won several concessions on the platform. Sanders
supporters will tell you that the primaries were rigged in Clinton’s favor
except evidence says otherwise. If anything, the primaries were rigged against
Clinton in part due to the caucuses. A pattern emerged in the Democratic
nominating contests that if the state used a caucus it favored Sanders while
states that used a primary generally favored Clinton. If you compare the
Washington caucus to its non-binding primary results, Sanders won the caucus
while Clinton won the primary.
And
using the phrase “rigged election” is the same one that Republicans used to try
to pass voter ID laws and limit access to the polls. It is insulting to the
mainly black and Latino voters that make up a good portion of the Democratic
Party nominating contests. If a Sanders-like candidate is to win the Democratic
nomination, they need to make inroads with those groups. Clinton, for her
strengths and weaknesses with those groups, had relations with them; Sanders
did not.
It
should be noted that Sanders did campaign for Clinton but did not get the
message across that this was not the time to cast a ballot for third party
candidates.
This
was also the first election post Shelby County, the Supreme Court decision that
gutted provisions of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. How many voters in Florida, Michigan,
North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin were impacted by restrictions that either
limited the number of polling locations in heavily Democratic precincts, voter
ID laws that targeted voters that supported Democrats, or reduced early voting
times that impacted black voters who used the Sunday before Election Day to
send souls to the polls?
FiveThirtyEight
also presents that there was in
fact a large surge towards Trump in the end in part due to FBI Director
James Comey’s letter that was reported inside two weeks from Election Day. On
Election Day, FiveThirtyEight had Trump’s odds as high as 30% in part due to a
large number of undecided voters. Compare to 2012 where Romney was given about
a 10% chance by FiveThirtyEight (then under the New York Times umbrella).
Other
factors were that even though along gender lines Clinton won women by 12
points, it
was white women who backed Trump 53-41. And
then there were those that did not vote at all.
And
if you didn’t vote, your opinion matters very little to me at all. You don’t
vote; you don’t matter.
Then
there was WikiLeaks,
Russia, the “I want a woman president, just not Clinton” line of thinking from
some people, Clinton’s approvals dropping as she was running for higher office,
the assumption by the Clinton camp that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
would always be in the Democratic column despite there being no strong evidence
they wouldn’t, and as
Van Jones put it during Election Night, a white-lash to Obama’s presidency and a
country that was changing.
And
of course, the media played a role in Trump’s victory by giving him a free pass
at every instance. Someone at a network control room should have had the
courage to cut his feed the moment he characterized Mexicans as rapists in his
campaign announcement speech followed by a newsperson apologizing for Trump’s
comments. The press should have pulled their reporters en masse after NBC correspondent
Katy Tur had to have secret service escort her from a Trump rally after the candidate
singled her out to his rabid followers. The Commander-in-Chief’s forum should
not have had Matt Lauer interview the candidates. While it was a good idea,
having the Today show host ask questions about military and foreign policy
would not have been my choice as well as his line of questioning to the two candidates
was as different as day and night. NBC should have brought Richard Engel out of
whatever Middle East hotspot he was in to conduct the interview.
Now
the media is afraid that the incoming Trump White House is about to limit their
access to the administration. Maybe they should have vetted Trump better and
put him more on the spot about his weaknesses on… well… as shown with his
cabinet choices, everything.
They
were so desperate for the horserace they were willing to prop up one candidate despite
his many flaws that would have doomed other candidates while tearing down
another candidate because she just wasn’t perfect enough that they did not
factor in what a Trump administration could mean for journalism. But as CBS
Chairman Les Moonves said in February about Trump’s campaign, “It
may not be good for America, but it's damn good for CBS.”
I
hope Edward R. Murrow, who worked at CBS as a World War II correspondent and
later a critic of Joseph McCarthy, haunts him.
I
took an oath to support and defend the Constitution of the United States and tomorrow,
Donald J. Trump will take a similar oath when he is sworn in as our nation’s
45th president.
I am
saying the right things because I strongly respect what truly make America
great: our elections, a relatively independent press free from government
influence, the courts, the military that I served in, and our diversity that at
times has been challenged and re-defined over and over and over again.
I
also celebrate the relative peaceful transfer of power that was established by
Washington, solidified by Adams when he lost the 1800 election to Jefferson,
and went on through periods of peace and prosperity to times of war and
uncertainty like the one we are in now.
However,
understand that I feel that I should give President-elect Donald Trump the same
contempt that Republicans gave President Barack Obama when he was sworn into
office nearly eight years ago.
And
there is good reason for that too.
Eight
years ago, as the nation celebrated Barack Obama’s inauguration, a group of
Republicans gathered at a DC restaurant to determine their strategy for the
future. They knew that Obama was the future and the country just gave the
Republicans the middle finger. They seized on the anxiety of the economic crisis
as well as stoke the racial fears of a black president. Their only solution was
to just say no to everything that the new president proposed, even ideas –
ObamaCare for one – that Republicans once supported (ask the Heritage
Foundation and Mitt Romney about it).
What
makes the incoming Trump administration so sure that that there will be
goodwill towards an incoming president that lost the popular vote with 46% of
the vote and has an incoming approval that is at best 40%?
If
he and his advisers truly believe that they have a mandate to govern as they
see fit, then the world is turned upside down.
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