3-1
in the Wild Card is not a bad start to the playoffs. Four teams advance to take
on the teams that were on first-round byes. Two more teams will be eliminated
this weekend while two will advance to the next round.
Who
will it be?
A common
theme that surrounds these four games is that they are all rematches from
regular season games. Only one is taking place at the same location as the
first game; the Texans at Patriots game is happening in Foxboro as it was when
they played in Week 4.
Times
are MT
SEAHAWKS AT FALCONS,
SATURDAY 2:30PM FOX
The
first of the rematches occurs this afternoon in Atlanta. The two teams faced in
Seattle in Week 6 when the Seahawks came away with a 26-24 win that was aided
in part to the Falcons failing to convert a 4th and 10 with 1:30 remaining in
the game. The Falcons believe that cornerback Richard Sherman interfered with
receiver Julio Jones on that play and thus costing the team a victory in a difficult
place to play.
Nevertheless,
the Falcons ended up as the NFC 2-seed and the league’s top ranked offense with
quarterback Matt Ryan, Jones, and the running back tandem of Devonta Freeman
and Tevin Coleman. The backs combined for almost 2,500 total yards and 24 total
touchdowns. Jones is pretty good too himself having caught 83 passes out of 129
targets for 1,409 yards and 6 touchdowns including a 300-yard receiving day
against Carolina.
Ryan
is certainly in the talk of the MVP vote but will be facing Seattle’s vaunted
secondary.
Seattle
should be primed for the upset in this game. Last week against Detroit at home,
running back Thomas Rawls rushed for a team playoff record 161 yards and a
touchdown in the Seahawks’ 26-6 victory. Seattle is 8-1 at home this season but
is 3-4-1 on the road including a 14-5 loss at Tampa and a 38-10 defeat in Green
Bay in Week 14. The Green Bay game is also when safety Earl Thomas was lost for
the season due to a broken left tibia.
I
expect Russell Wilson to make plays to keep the Seahawks in this game, but I
see Atlanta getting their revenge and advancing to their first NFC Championship
game in four years because of their offensive weapons.
FALCONS 35, SEAHAWKS 20
TEXANS AT PATRIOTS, SATURDAY 6PM
CBS
In
Week 3 on a Thursday night, the Patriots started a third-string quarterback and
came away with a 27-0 victory over Houston.
The
Texans played better than I expected but unfortunately, 1) it was against the
Raiders who were not a full strength, and 2) they are running into a playoff
buzzsaw in the Patriots. Yes, Bill O’Brien and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel
are part of the Bill Belichick coaching tree but the Texans lack talent at the
quarterback position in order to advance.
Two
things about that
If
Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was to throw an interception on each of his next
35 passes, he would still have a higher quarterback rating than Brock Osweiler.
The
second thing is that over the course of the last seven weeks, the Patriots have
faced starting quarterbacks with an average rating of 79.7. Osweiler’s 2016
rating was 72.2.
Can
the Texans beat the Patriots? Of course, anything is possible…
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PATRIOTS 31, TEXANS 6
PACKERS AT COWBOYS, SUNDAY
2:30PM
At
4-6 and in the midst of a 4-game losing streak the Packers looked done, but
quarterback Aaron Rodgers reassured the fans that the team would run the table.
And
they did to another NFC North title and a playoff victory that extended their
win streak to 7 games.
Much
of that is also due to having receiver Jordy Nelson during this stretch run.
Even though he is out due to two fractured ribs, the Packers’ offense continued
to roll especially against the Giants.
After
the Hail Mary to close out the first half, Green Bay never looked back and
their lead was never seriously threatened. Receiver Randall Cobb caught 3
receiving touchdowns, tying an NFL single playoff game record, in the Packers
38-13 win over the Giants. Expect Cobb to see a lot of balls thrown his way and
ability to get open while Rodgers scrambles.
Who
is the rookie of the year? The Cowboys certainly have two candidates: Dak
Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott.
Prescott
certainly put Cowboys fans fears of another lost season by throwing for 3,667
yards, 23 touchdowns vs. 4 interceptions, and leading the team to a 13-3
record. Elliot rushed for 1,631 yards, 15 touchdowns, and averages 5.06 yards
per carry.
After
the Cowboys second loss to the Giants, there were concerns that Prescott had
hit the rookie wall and that it was time to bring in veteran Tony Romo who had
recovered from a pre-season back injury and was cleared to play. Prescott put
those concerns to rest with 32 completions, 279 passing yards, and a rushing
touchdown in a 26-20 win over the Buccaneers at Jerry World.
While
Prescott has reliable receivers in Dez Bryant and tight end Jason Witten, his
go-to has been Cole Beasley who led the team in targets, receptions, and
receiving yards.
Certainly,
the Cowboys have exceeded my expectations for the season. Dallas tied the franchise
record for most wins in the regular season with 13. The two previous times was
in 2007 – when the Cowboys were bounced out of the playoffs by eventual Super
Bowl champion New York – and in 1992 when the Cowboys won Super Bowl XXVII.
The
key to this game will be the Cowboys offensive line and how often they keep
feeding Zeke. This is a different Packers team than the one that showed up at
Lambeau back in October, but I believe that Dallas’ offensive line combined
with the running game will keep Rodgers on the sideline and allow the Cowboys
to advance.
COWBOYS 24, PACKERS 17
STEELERS AT CHIEFS, SUNDAY 6PM NBC
This
is probably the best game of the weekend. The game was originally scheduled for
the early window but weather concerns pushed the game into the evening window.
Pittsburgh’s
3 Bs dominated from start to finish. It was essentially over after the second Roethlisberger
to Brown touchdown catch and run in the first quarter. I think many people
turned the game off after halftime. In his first playoff game, Le’Veon Bell
finished with 167 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
The
Dolphins at Steelers game was sort of a template for the Chiefs at Steelers
game earlier in the season. By the end of the first quarter, it was 22-0
Pittsburgh. At halftime 29-0. The Chiefs scored two touchdowns to… well… it was
not a respectable result.
Since
then though, the Chiefs have won 10 of 12 games. Their only two losses were
identical 19-17 losses to the Buccaneers and Titans. Among their victories was
a season sweep of the Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders, and a thrilling 29-28
victory over the Falcons in Atlanta that was highlighted by safety Eric Berry picking
off Matt Ryan for a touchdown and intercepting Ryan on a
two-point conversion for a return of two points (a pick-2 as the cool kids call
it).
I do
believe the Steelers will be tested in this game. They know it because this is
an entirely different Chiefs team they faced when they played in Pittsburgh
back in early October. The Steelers lead league in big plays (runs of 10+ yards
and passes of 20+ yards) with 122 and limiting Ben Roethlisberger to 1.2 sacks
per game – the lowest of his career. However, the game is in Kansas City.
Roethlisberger at home has a 115.3 passer rating vs. a 78.4 passer rating on
the road. And the Steelers last 8 opponents have a 52-77-1 combined record.
Meanwhile
Andy Reid teams (Eagles and Chiefs) were 19-2 after the bye week, the best
among 17 active coaches with 4 or more games. Guess when the Chiefs winning
streak began?
In
Week 6
After
their bye week
If
the Chiefs can contain the big plays as well as their opportunistic defense
create turnovers, they should advance to their first AFC Championship game
since the 1990s.
CHIEFS 23, STEELERS 20
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