ON WISCONSIN

Today is the first of two June events that are expected to have an impact on the elections in November. The first is the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election and the other is the Supreme Court’s ruling on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act or “ObamaCare.”

First, the Wisconsin recall…

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, who was elected in 2010, has faced criticism for promoting anti-union policies and streamlining a bill through a heavily controlled Republican legislature that strips public unions the right to collectively bargain. In addition, he also quietly repealed Wisconsin’s equal pay statute.

Former Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett is looking to unseat this governor, but it might be a difficult task. Polling shows that Walker might survive, so the key for Democrats is turnout. While Wisconsin has shown the means of organizing People Power, Walker has relied on another power… Money. Walker clearly has an advantage in that department as he has outspent his opponent by a large margin and had help from outside resources. The money gap has gotten so bad that the DNC was criticized for their lack of funding the race in Wisconsin.

It’s not just the gubernatorial race that people are watching. Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, who had this strange video about fighting turkeys…

Sorry… The sheer stupidity caused me to black out.

Rebecca Kleefisch, who compared same-sex marriage to marrying inanimate objects and dogs (what is it with Republicans and dogs…), has drawn an opponent in former fire fighters union president Mahlon Mitchell. Also, four GOP State Senate seats are up for a recall. Winning one of those seats would tip control of the State Senate to Democratic control.

The big prize is of course the Governor’s Mansion. If Walker retains his residence in Madison, the Romney Campaign believes it has a shot at winning the state’s 10 electoral votes in November.

There is some historical belief behind this. Even though the state has gone for the Democratic nominee since 1988, in 2000 Gore narrowly won the state by less than 1%; in 2004 Kerry won the state, but only with a plurality. In 2008, Obama won by a 14-point margin, but during the 2010 elections Republicans won a majority of the 8 US House Delegation seats from Wisconsin, claimed a US Senate seat, claimed both chambers of the state legislature, and Scott Walker won by 5.8% points.

The polling before the election was not looking good for Tom Barnett. Real Clear Politics polling average has Walker with a seven point average. If Barnett pulls off a win, it would make the Obama Campaign’s path to 270 a lot easier. An exit poll released during the 6PM CT Hour revealed the following about voters that participated in this election:

Though there is one set of data that has to be comforting for those involved in the Obama Campaign:

I don’t know about you, but the race to November is already exciting here in June.