Sunday, February 4, 2018

SUPER BOWL LII



It is finally here

Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis, MN

Kickoff between the Patriots and Eagles is at 4:00 PM (MT) on the NBC Television Network


PHILADELPHIA EAGLES


DEFENSIVE RANKINGS: Points 4th, Total Yards 4th, Passing Yards 4th, Rushing Yards 18th, Turnovers 4th, 3rd-Down Conversions 3rd, Red Zone Scoring 20th, Total Touchdowns 8th, Passing Touchdowns 20th, Rushing Touchdowns 5th

SUPER BOWL RECORD: 0-2
Losses: XV, XXXIX
LAST SUPER BOWL APPEARANCE: XXXIX, 24-21 loss to Patriots
LAST NFL CHAMPIONSHIP: 1960

Fun story about Super Bowl XXXIX

I was in the early part of my deployment on the USS Carl Vinson for that game. I had the unfortunate luck of being on watch but it was a roving watch in out of plant spaces so I would occasionally check out the game on the mess decks and provide a scoring update to those stuck in the plant.

I caught the final five minutes of the game and while watching in a standing room only M-Division berthing lounge, I was wondering why the Eagles were not hurrying up down 10. Philadelphia did score a touchdown to close the gap to 3 but it was after the two-minute warning. The Eagles got the ball back but were pinned inside their own 5 and out of time outs. Donovan McNabb lobbed a pass to L.J. Smith but was intercepted by Rodney Harrison to secure the Patriots 3rd Super Bowl win in 4 seasons.

We teased our departmental yeoman, Milton Abbott, over the loss but he boasted loud to everyone in berthing, “Don’t worry. The Eagles will be back next season.”

(Narrator: No, they weren’t)

The Eagles were the dominant team in the NFC East this season and looked like the favorite to win the NFC until Carson Wentz went down with a torn ACL against the Rams in Week 14. Despite being underdogs in their two home playoff games, the Eagles beat the Falcons and crushed the Vikings 38-7 in the NFC Championship Game.

Quarterback Nick Foles threw for 352 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Vikings. Two of those touchdowns were caught by Alshon Jeffery who caught 5 passes on 5 targets for 85. The other touchdown was caught by Torrey Smith who was on the Ravens 2012 championship team.

Even though he caught no touchdowns, Zach Ertz caught 8 passes on 8 targets for 93 yards.

LeGarrette Blount and Chris Long were members of the Patriots last season, but are now on the Eagles this year. I am also keeping an eye on that Eagles front seven defensive unit and their ability to put pressure on the quarterback and create turnovers. In the NFC Championship Game, the Eagles forced 3 turnovers including a Patrick Robinson interception that was returned for a touchdown that started the Eagles rout.


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
REGULAR SEASON RECORD: 13-3, AFC East Champion, AFC 1 seed
OFFENSIVE RANKINGS: Points 2nd, Total Yards 1st, Passing Yards 2nd, Rushing Yards 10th, Fewest Turnovers 2nd, 3rd-Down Conversions 18th, Red Zone Scoring 5th, Total Touchdowns 4th, Passing Touchdowns 3rd, Rushing Touchdowns 6th

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS: Points 5th, Total Yards 29th, Passing Yards 30th, Rushing Yards 3rd, Fewest Turnovers 11th, 3rd-Down Conversions 21st, Red Zone Scoring 4th, Total Touchdowns 6th, Passing Touchdowns 18th, Rushing Touchdowns 2nd

SUPER BOWL RECORD: 5-4
Wins: XXXVI, XXXVIII, XXXIX, XLIX, LI
Losses: XX, XXXI, XLII, XLVI
LAST SUPER BOWL APPEARANCE: LI, 34-28 overtime win over Falcons
LAST NFL CHAMPIONSHIP: 2016

New England got off to a rough start losing to Kansas City on opening night and a last second loss at home to Carolina that brought their record to 2-2, but followed it up by winning 8 games in a row. New England gave up 30 or more points three times and it was in 3 of their first 4 games. Since then, they have not and only lost once, a road loss on Monday night in Miami.

The Patriots trailed the Jaguars in the AFC Championship but two 4th-quarter touchdown passes from quarterback Tom Brady to receiver Danny Amendola sent New England to the franchise’s 10th Super Bowl.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski suffered a concussion against the Jaguars but is cleared to play. Even though Brady was named the MVP of last year’s Super Bowl, an argument can be made for running back James White who caught 14 passes for 110 yards and had 3 total touchdowns including the game winning rushing touchdown in overtime. Even though he has had a quiet regular season, don’t be surprised if he is called upon again in this game.


THE PICK
Since returning to televising the NFL in 2006, NBC has lucked out on some pretty entertaining Super Bowls. Super Bowl XLIII saw the Cardinals take a 23-20 lead with 2:37 remaining on Larry Fitzgerald’s 65-yard catch and run for a touchdown, only to be equaled by Santonio Holmes’ toe-tapping sideline grab with 35 seconds to put the Steelers up by 4. A strip-sack of quarterback Kurt Warner on the Cardinals’ final drive secured the Steelers sixth Super Bowl championship.

Three years later in Indianapolis, Mario Manningham’s sideline grab from Eli Manning kept the Giants’ hopes of upsetting the Patriots yet again in a Super Bowl. Three years ago, it was the Patriots becoming the third team to come back from down 10 to win the Super Bowl and the first to do it in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks made a valiant effort to regain the lead with a crazy 33-yard catch by Jermaine Kearse that was then followed up by 2 plays later with Russel Wilson throwing the ball instead of handing off to Marshawn Lynch.

Will this be another close game too? In the 7 Super Bowls the Patriots have played in Belichick-Brady era the margins have been 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, and 6. The deciding points came with 3 minutes left in the game or later in 6 of the 7 games.

This is the 6th matchup in Super Bowl history where the teams have faced in a previous matchup. Those other games are: Dolphins-Washington, Steelers-Cowboys, Giants-Patriots, 49ers-Bengals, and Cowboys-Bills. The Giants, 49ers, and Cowboys in the matchup against the Bills are the only teams to win both the first game and then the rematch. The Steelers won Super Bowls X and XIII, but the Cowboys won the rematch of the rematch in Super Bowl XXX. Miami capped their undefeated season over Washington in Super Bowl VII but a decade later Washington won their first Super Bowl title.


Tom Brady won his 3rd MVP award last night and is the oldest NFL player to win that award. NFL MVP awardees currently have not had the best of luck in the Super Bowl recently having lost the previous 8 games which included the Patriots loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. The last NFL MVP to win the Super Bowl was Kurt Warner in Super Bowl XXXIV.

The NFC won the interconference matchups 41 out of 64 times this season, but both New England and Philadelphia went 3-1 against the other conference.

SO, WHO WINS…?

This pattern looks pretty familiar. A win against the NFC West champion, then a win against the NFC South champion in Houston, and a matchup against the Eagles to go back-to-back.


So… I guess I’m saying…

PATRIOTS 31, EAGLES 27
MVP: Tom Brady, QB

NON-QB MVP: Rob Gronkowski, TE

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