This
is my final electoral college prediction.
It
appeared that Hillary Clinton was on the verge of a large electoral college and
a double-digit popular vote victory unseen in this era of hyper partisan
politics. It looked like the Democrats were going to easily reclaim the Senate
as well as narrow the Republicans advantage in the House to the point where it
was possible to flip that chamber.
That
was until FBI Director James Comey dropped a very vague letter in late October
about Hillary Clinton’s e-mails. It turns out that more e-mails related to
Hillary Clinton’s tenure as Secretary of State were discovered on a computer
that once belonged to Huma Abadeen, a senior aide to Clinton, and her now
ex-husband Anthony Weiner in relation to the investigation over Weiner sending inappropriate
pictures to a 15-year old girl.
On
Sunday, Comey sent another letter declaring that the e-mails were in fact
duplicates and that the conclusion that Comey reached in July remains: that no
sensible prosecutor would bring charges against Clinton.
In
regards to the e-mails, the press has made this a bigger deal that it really is
creating an aura of false equivalence as explained best by Seth Meyers.
They just don’t love the two choices. I
mean (picture of Clinton) do you pick someone who is under federal
investigation for using a private e-mail server or (picture of Trump) do you
pick someone who called Mexicans rapists, claimed the president was born in
Kenya, proposed banning an entire religion from entering the US, mocked a
disabled reporter, said John McCain wasn’t a war hero because he was captured,
attacked the parents of a fallen soldier, bragged about committing sexual
assault, was accused by 12 women of committing sexual assault, said some of those
women weren’t attractive enough for him to sexually assault, said more
countries should get nukes, said he would force the military to commit war
crimes, said a judge was bias because his parents were Mexicans, said women
should be punished for having an abortion, incited violence at his rallies,
called global warming a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese, called for his
opponent to be jailed, declared bankruptcy SIX times, bragged about not paying
income taxes, stiffed his contractors and employees, lost a BILLION DOLLARS in
one year, scammed customers from his fake university, bought a six-foot tall
painting of himself with money from his fake foundation, has a trial for fraud
coming up in November, insulted his opponent’s looks, insulted his opponent’s
WIFE’S looks, and bragged about grabbing women by the pussy!
How do you choose…?
There
also seemed to be some connection between the FBI and the Trump campaign. In an
interview with Fox News, Trump surrogate Rudy Giuliani slyly hinted that there
was going to be some big news breaking about Clinton.
How
could he have known that something was going to happen?
And
also, Utah Congressman Jason Chaffetz had suddenly changed from not voting for
Trump to voting for Trump. He denounced Trump after the reveal of the Access
Hollywood tape in October and said that because of his kids he could not vote
for Trump.
There
is also reports of a strong anti-Clinton faction within one of the FBI field
offices in New York that was motivated to investigate the Clintons over their
foundation due to the revelations in the book “Clinton Cash,” a right-wing
publication that has been debunked several times over.
For
Comey to have inserted himself at this point in the campaign was highly
inappropriate. If he was to have issued the letter explaining that there were
more e-mails he could have waited until the investigation was complete to
announce his department’s findings. Certainly, Comey is under pressure from his
fellow Republicans to find anything on Hillary Clinton and to try to beat back
the cries from Trump that the electoral system is rigged against him (when in
reality it is not).
There
was also the natural tightening of the polls that has been taking place, but in
the final polls released Clinton still has a lead in the national popular vote
which translates to an electoral college victory for her.
NBC-Survey
Monkey has also shown a reliably stable race. Not once in their tracking poll
has Clinton trailed Trump. The poll shows Clinton with a 47-41 advantage. The
last NBC-Wall Street Journal Poll shows Clinton leading by 4 in both the 4-way
match-up and head-to-head.
But
you have to look at the state-by-state polls as well because it is about who
can get to 270 electoral votes. Again, there is some tightening, but no
surprises. As expected Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio are going to be close.
Despite
all of these factors, Clinton still retains her advantage in the electoral
college while Trump needs some help.
Her
path to victory is to hold the states that Kerry won in 2004 giving her a total
of 242 electoral votes.
I am
unsure about Maine’s 2nd Congressional District as well as the possibility of two
Washington state electors becoming “faithless electors.” The last time that
happened was in 2004 was due to a clerical error in Minnesota, a state that the
Kerry-Edwards ticket carried. That instance had no impact on the final
electoral result. Due to the risk of a close electoral college result, this
could possibly impact the election and send it to the House for the first time
since 1824.
So… Let’s
say she has 239 electoral votes based on those conditions.
She
will carry Virginia on the basis of Kaine being her vice-presidential choice as
well as there are sizable portions of black voters and whites with college
degrees in the state. Trump is not doing so well with those demographics.
Clinton is on pace to win whites with a college degree for the first time in
almost forever while I will be shocked if Trump receives 5% of the black vote.
New
Mexico is going for Clinton despite it is the state where Libertarian candidate
Gary Johnson was governor. This state has a high Latino population and Trump’s
comments have certainly mobilized those voters. The same thing is taking place
in Nevada. According to Jon Ralston, Trump would need a surge to break through
the Democrats early vote statewide lead to win the state. Along with the
presidential, it is looking like Democrats will keep the senate seat, claim two
House seats, and flip the Nevada legislature based on those numbers.
Republicans
have taken a late lead in the early vote in Colorado, but again field is
important as well as demographics. Trump is not winning Colorado due to a high Latino
voting bloc as well as highly educated voters that reside in the Denver-Boulder
metropolitan area. Again, two groups that are not favorable to his electoral
prospects.
This
brings Clinton’s total to 272
I
see that as being her path of least resistance to the presidency.
Meanwhile
Trump has 179 electoral votes based on the last four elections. He has Indiana
on the basis of his running mate is from that state and it is looking like he
will carry Iowa based on that even though Democrats have some advantage in the
early vote, they are behind the pace from 2012 as well as demographics that
favor Trump in the state.
I
originally want to put Ohio in Trump’s column but Clinton has a superior field
operation than Trump as well as Talking Points Memo poll tracker has Trump
ahead by 1.2 points. Field can make all the difference. I’m going to put Ohio
in Trump’s column knowing that
it is possible that like in 2012 I was wrong about Florida.
Same
with Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
The
remaining states are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Utah,
and (possibly) Texas.
Wait…
Utah?
Trump
is dealing with a third-party challenger, Evan McMullin, in this reliably red
state. Republicans typically win this state by a similar margin that Democrats
win DC. Trump could win this state, but because of Utah’s Mormon population
there is the likelihood that McMullin could be the first third-party candidate
to receive electoral votes since George Wallace in 1968 or the split between
Trump and McMullin could be enough that Clinton could win the state.
And…
Yes…. Texas…
The
early vote in Texas is exceeding the pace from four years earlier. I wouldn’t
be surprised if on Tuesday you hear “Texas: Too Close to Call.” Again, like New
Mexico and Colorado, Texas has a high concentration of Latino voters as well as
college educated whites. Among the second group some might be coming home to
the Republican Party but this could be the future of Texas politics. I’ve
talked with a Texas political observer and he says Clinton might lose Texas by
5. Remember Romney won the state by over 15 points four years ago.
New
Hampshire was looking shaky for Clinton but two final polls – WMUR/Granite
State and SurveyMonkey – show Clinton with double digit leads.
The final
NBC battleground map has Georgia as a battleground. An NBC poll conducted
around Halloween showed Trump ahead by a point. The numbers in Florida and
North Carolina are looking favorable to Clinton based on the early vote totals
and analysis of the votes.
If
Trump was to hold onto Arizona, Utah, Texas, and Georgia as well as put North
Carolina, Florida, and New Hampshire into his column, he would still be 6 votes
short of 270.
So…
which state can Trump flip from blue to red?
Though
there are some demographics that are favorable to him in Michigan, Wisconsin, and
Minnesota, they are not going for him based on polling and history. Michigan
hasn’t gone Republican since 1988, Wisconsin since 1984, and Minnesota since
1972. That explains his cross-country excursion into those states as well as
Colorado, Florida, and Virginia in the campaign’s final hours.
Pennsylvania
seems like the ideal Trump state, but Philadelphia and its associated suburbs
give the Democrats a distinct demographic advantage.
And
again, as I have pointed out, Clinton has a superior turnout operation. Trump
seems to be relying on rallies and tweets. That’s great but that does not equal
votes.
Most
importantly this surrogate
Obama
currently has an approval rating north of 50% as well as unemployment is at
4.9%. The media is trying to spin this as a change election but it is not.
Based on the polling and the voters that are turning out, it is not.
The
only other way that Trump wins is if there is a massive polling error that
fails to capture the so-called working white non-college voters that Trump is
courting, the
so-called shy-Trump voter that his campaign is promoting which is a myth.
If anything,
the polling is undersampling the Latino voting bloc and forgetting that the
electorate in 2016 will be the most diverse in American history.
So…
my final electoral college projection is…
|
ELECTION 2016, POTUS
|
EVs
|
|
CLINTON
|
322
|
|
TRUMP
|
216
|
No comments:
Post a Comment