At
first I was against the idea.
For
starters Warren would be relegated to a position that Vice-President John Nance
Garner once described his job as, “worth as much as a warm bucket of piss.” The
quote was later cleaned up to the less offensive warm bucket of spit. Garner
called the newspaper editor who changed the line a pansy.
It
was understandable why Garner, the first of three vice-presidents that served
under Franklin Roosevelt, did not hold the vice-presidency in high regard.
Garner was Speaker of the House when FDR added him to the 1932 Democratic
ticket and he went from being the most powerful member of the Congress to
holding the ceremonial title of president of the Senate, casting the rare tie-breaking
vote in case the senate is divided, and essentially
a place holder in case something horrible happened to FDR.
There
is a good chance that Democrats could reclaim the senate this November.
Democrats currently have 46 seats in the upper chamber, that includes the two
independents – Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
Since
this is a presidential year with a term-limited president, the number to claim
a majority is 51. Being down five seats is a daunting task, but the way the map
is lined up this election cycle Democrats could make some considerable gains in
addition to retaining the White House for at least another four years.
Florida,
Illinois, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin elected (or in
the case of Iowa, re-elected) Republican senators in 2010. However, those seven
states went for Obama in 2008 and 2012.
The
only serious seats that Democrats have to defend are Colorado – which the
Republicans have gloriously screwed up by nominating El Paso County
Commissioner Darryl Glenn and pretty much have given Michael Bennett an easy
victory – and Nevada due to the retirement of Senator Harry Reid. Again, those
two states went to Obama twice and have sizable Latino voting populations. I
expect that due to Trump being at the top of the ticket there will be
considerable turnout by this voting demographic that some reliably red states
could be in play.
The
Trump effect could impact senate races in red states. Arizona is one of those
states that could be in play for both the presidential and senate race. Senator
John McCain has to survive his Republican primary and then go against
Representative Ann Kirkpatrick. McCain has said that he will endorse whoever is
the Republican nominee.
Obama
won North Carolina with a plurality in 2008 and lost the state in 2012 by a
surprising margin of 2 points. Democrats are not just eying the state’s 15
electoral votes, but the impact of Trump could impact Senator Richard Burr’s
re-election bid. The impact of North Carolina’s anti-LGBT law signed by
Governor Pat McCrory is also playing a role in the state being a key
battleground.
And
then there is Missouri. Remember four years ago when Claire McCaskill first ran
ads in favor of one of the candidates in the Republican Primary and then the
winner of that race uttered “legitimate rape” during a televised interview?
Missouri is possibly in play with Secretary of State and Afghanistan War Veteran Jason Kander presumably facing off against incumbent Roy Blunt.
So
under the best scenario not only do Democrats retain the White House with
Hillary Clinton but also a full flip of the senate to a 55-45 advantage.
Senator
Warren is currently on the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban
Affairs and is the ranking member on the Subcommittee on Economic Policy. If
Democrats are in the majority, that means chairmanships (or in her case
chairwomanship) on the various committees and subcommittees which also means
dictating what bills are heard and sent to the senate floor for an official vote.
Even though it would be likely that Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown would become the
chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, it would not surprise me if her name
was considered.
Losing
Warren to the vice-presidency would lose someone who would be key in helping to
shape a progressive agenda for the Hillary Clinton administration and also show
a sharp contrast between the Senate controlled by Democrats and most likely a
House remaining in Republican control with a smaller majority.
The
other is that the seat occupied by Warren would immediately go the Republicans.
Warren
would have to vacate her senate seat upon becoming vice-president and her
replacement would be chosen by the governor of Massachusetts.
Who
is a Republican
That
was elected in 2014, one of the two Obama mid-term elections that not enough
Democrats could not be bothered to show up and vote in.
The
quip in Massachusetts
law is that there would be a special election taking place within 145 to 160
days of the vacancy.
The
other strike against Warren is what does she add to the ticket. She is from
Massachusetts, a relatively safe blue state. According to a Clinton
vice-president short list comprised by both the Washington Post and Larry
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Clinton has a selection of picks but each one has flaws
too.
For
starters, Kirsten Gillibrand is off because the Twelfth Amendment stipulates
that the electors’ choice for president and vice-president cannot be from the
same state; Hillary Clinton is a New York resident and Gillibrand is a US
Senator from that same state. There are some constitutional gymnastics on how
this could work and it was a scenario explored under a Bush-Rubio ticket where
the electors would cast their votes for Clinton to be president and risk the
vice-president being selected in the senate. The same goes for former New York
City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, current New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio, New
York Governor Andrew Cuomo. Or anyone else from New York.
While
California is a reliably blue state, Kamala Harris is off the list due to her
current senate campaign.
Same
goes for Illinois Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth who is attempting to reclaim a
senate seat that is currently held by Republican Mark Kirk and was once occupied by Barack Obama.
Ohio
Senator Sherrod Brown is rumored to be on the VP short list, but like Warren,
his replacement would be chosen by a Republican governor and that replacement
would have an advantage heading into the 2018 election running as an incumbent.
I
doubt Senator Sanders would want to run as a unity ticket candidate. Also being
named chair of the budget committee when the Democrats retake the senate is an
opportunity not to pass up.
Colorado
Governor John Hickenlooper’s name has been floated around. He fulfills many
pros - a governor from a state Clinton needs to carry in the general, he won
re-election in 2014, was mayor of a large city (Denver), and as a brewer can
supply the beer for the inaugural ball – but here are the cons: he is not well
known outside of Colorado, his 2014 re-election win was a plurality, he would
not excite the base, and the name “Frackenlooper” is a term of derision heard among far
left Democratic circles in this state.
Those
are also the problems facing Virginia Senators Mark Warner and Tim Kaine and
Governor Terry McAuliffe. While adding one of the Virginia senators to the
ticket assures that a Democrat would be replaced by a Democratic governor,
again neither of them excite the base and Warner faced a tougher than expected
re-election bid in 2014. 2016 could shape up to be another base style election
much like what 2012 was. Like the Virginia senators, adding someone from
another critical swing state would be ideal and McAuliffe would give his
lieutenant governor an advantage heading into 2017 but his ties to the Clintons
could be a negative.
Julian
Castro was seen as a rising star after his 2012 keynote and subsequent
appointment as HUD Secretary which was seen as VP grooming but since then the
rumors have cooled about him being added to the ticket. For me, he is setting
off Dan Quayle-like alarms.
Another
Obama cabinet secretary that is receiving a lot of consideration is Labor
Secretary Tom Perez. It would be wise to tap someone from the Obama administration
because Obama’s popularity has risen to about 50% according to the most recent
tracking polls and is still very popular among Democrats. If it wasn’t for that
pesky 22nd Amendment, I bet Obama would run for a third term and beat Donald
Trump comfortably.
And
Perez and Castro might have to leave their posts in the Obama cabinet in order
to campaign.
And
given the current makeup of the senate, confirmation of a replacement would not
happen.
If
this was a normal election, Clinton would have probably match up against a Ted
Cruz-Nikki Haley ticket (or a Cruz-Susan Martinez ticket). I know, in our
timeline Cruz picked Carly Fiorina, but since Trump won the groups of voters
that gravitated towards Cruz in the Republican primary it is likely that in the
absence of Trump, Cruz would have won the nomination and not have had to make
the Hail Mary play down by 35 points with 4 seconds remaining in the game of
nominating Fiorina. Clinton certainly would have made the safe choice and would
be applauded for doing so.
This
is not a normal election due to the Trump-Pence ticket and especially with the
nominee being Trump. Clinton needs someone who can be an attack dog on the stump
as much as her other surrogates in President Obama, Vice-President Biden, her
husband and former President Bill Clinton, and Senator Bernie Sanders.
Elizabeth Warren has proven to be just as much as a that and more. She can
matchup with Governor Pence during the only vice-presidential debate and also
could heal the divide that exists between Clinton supporters and the few
Sanders supporters who remain holdouts or contemplating support a third-party
ticket.
This
election is about being bold.
I’ve
heard some people saying that the country is not ready to handle two women in
the role of president and vice-president. Well… every POTUS-VPOTUS team has
been two of the same gender so why not continue that tradition?
I
will note that the decision is Hillary Clinton’s alone, she has earned it, and
I will respect it.
I
was impressed with Senator
Warren’s interview on The Rachel Maddow
Show when she endorsed Clinton back in June.
What
sold me on the idea of Warren for Vice-President was the last question of the
interview when Maddow asked Senator
Warren if she believes she is ready to fulfill the duties of the office if the
unthinkable happens to the president in a hypothetical setting.
Senator
Warren (confidently): Yes, I do.
And
yes, I do believe that Senator Elizabeth Warren should be added to the ticket as Clinton's vice-president.
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