The
Broncos are making their eighth Super Bowl appearance tying them with the
Steelers (6-2), Cowboys (5-3), and Patriots (4-4). Super Bowl Sunday has not
been too kind to the Broncos with losing the big game five times and losing
each time by double digits. Denver is in the record
book for having given up the most points in the second half (30, Super
Bowl XXI), most points given up in any quarter (35, Super
Bowl XXII) and biggest halftime deficit (25, Super
Bowl XXII), most touchdowns given up (8, Super
Bowl XXIV), most points allowed (55, Super
Bowl XXIV), biggest defeat (45, Super
Bowl XXIV), biggest deficit while being shutout (22, Super
Bowl XLVIII), and twice being shutout in the first half (Super
Bowl XII, XLVIII).
Though
the Broncos did win back-to-back Super Bowls in the 1990s (XXXII,
XXXIII)
in quarterback John Elway’s final two seasons and with the addition of much
needed running game provided by Terrell Davis.
This
is the Panthers most recent Super Bowl since their appearance in Houston back
in February 2004. The game
is regarded as one of the best in NFL history, but it is largely overshadowed
by the Justin Timberlake
and Janet Jackson halftime show.
The
Broncos come in with the number 1 ranked defense while the Panthers come in
with number 1 scoring offense as well as leading the league in turnover
differential. Denver’s defense faced these quarterbacks who played in a Super
Bowl or their team made the playoffs this season: Joe Flacco, Alex Smith
(twice), Teddy Bridgewater, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger (twice), and Tom
Brady (twice). Pretty impressive class of quarterbacks that have played in 11
Super Bowls and won 8 with their respective teams.
The
Panthers are no slouch either having faced these quarterbacks using the same
criterion: Drew Brees (twice), Russell Wilson (twice), Kirk Cousins, Carson
Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, and Eli Manning. Among these quarterbacks: 6 Super Bowl
appearances, 5 wins, 4 Super Bowl MVPs.
Panthers
quarterback Cam Newton is the league MVP because of his 2015 stat line: 3837
yards, 59.7% completion, 35 TDs vs. 10 interceptions, and 636 rushing yards and
10 touchdowns. Most importantly, Newton was part of a 15-1 team. Newton’s
favorite target in this offense is tight end Greg Olsen having caught 77 passes
for 1,104 yards and 7 touchdowns. No tight end has ever been named Super Bowl
MVP, but if one was to claim this award he could do it.
Peyton
Manning has won the NFL MVP 5 times and is a solid lock for the Hall of Fame.
This season
was a
very un-Manning-like season having completed 59.8% of his passes, thrown
for 2,249 yards, and 9 touchdowns vs. 17 interceptions. Manning was 7-2 in the
games he started and that was in part due to their defense. Backup Brock
Osweiler came in when Manning was benched and led the Broncos to 5 wins to keep
the Broncos playoff hopes alive. With the AFC West and homefield advantage on
the line in the season finale against the Chargers, Osweiler was benched for
Manning and he led the team to a 27-20 victory.
Throughout
the playoffs Carolina overwhelmed their opponents first by blowing out Seattle
in the first half of their divisional round game and then destroying Arizona in
the NFC Championship. In a theme throughout the season, Denver has had to grind
their way to victory. This was true in the playoffs. The Steelers played
essentially a perfect game despite being decimated by injury at receiver and
running back but a key fumble in the fourth quarter led to a Broncos touchdown
that put them up 7. Even though tight end Rob Gronkowski had his way with the
Broncos secondary, the Broncos defense was able to apply constant pressure on
quarterback Tom Brady throughout the game. I remember watching the CBS pregame
show prior to the AFC Championship Game and Broncos linebackers DeMarcus Ware
and Von Miller were saying if they sacked Tom Brady two times, they win the
game.
Denver
recorded four sacks on Brady as well as forcing two interceptions. And won
the game.
Carolina
as well has played some close entertaining games as well. Their Week 6
come-from-behind win at Seattle where Carolina scored two touchdowns in the
final 4 minutes, a Week 8
win at home on Monday Night in overtime against the Colts, a high scoring
affair against the Saints in New Orleans in Week 13,
and a Week
15 win over the Giants that kept their perfect season intact until a loss
the following week at Atlanta.
This
could likely be Manning’s last game. If he ends up winning this game, he
would have two Super Bowls – matching the same number of titles as his younger
brother Eli Manning. Throughout the playoffs, Peyton Manning has thrown for
zero touchdowns and most importantly zero touchdowns. Manning has evolved into
the game manager mainly having the team rely on their running game of C.J.
Anderson and Ronnie Hillman who have combined for 1,583 yards and 12 touchdowns
on the ground. Denver also a potent receiving offense at Manning’s disposal as
well. Wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders and tight end Demaryius Thomas could also
be considered for the game’s MVP as well. Sanders caught 76 passes on 136
targets for 1,135 yards and 6 touchdowns while Thomas led the team in
receptions (105), targets (177), and yards (1,304).
Enough
rambling… time for the pick…
The
focus will be on the quarterbacks, but this could be a good defensive Super
Bowl as noted by FiveThirtyEight.
Also FiveThirtyEight has been a pretty good predictor during this playoff
season having only missed one game: The Bengals, who had a 58% chance of
winning, lost to the Steelers.
Carolina
is a 5.5 to 6-point favorite according
to odds makers and per FiveThirtyEight has a 59% chance to win.
Denver has that number-1 ranked defense, but again Carolina led the league in scoring and led the league in turnover differential.
I
think this will be a good entertaining game, and I
agree with my fellow prognosticator on this.
PANTHERS 24, BRONCOS 20
MVP: Panthers QB Cam Newton
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