Saturday, January 5, 2013

IT IS THE PLAYOFFS




First... this is difficult for me, but I know when to admit defeat unlike Karl Rove on Election Night.

I'd like to congratulate one Ms. Monica Roberts of Houston, TX on a successful season in our pigskin prognostication competition. Even I had a better record in 8 weeks to Monica's 7 (we twice tied), she emerged as the overall victor by ONE GAME... coming down to the last game of the season... Sigh...

Last week, I went 10-6 which was a good finish. It was good enough to win the NFC East. Not as good as Monica's 11-5, but considering that I had one week where I went 5-11 and trailed Monica by 7 games at one point... It was very competitive down the stretch. I had a better record for 5 consecutive weeks from Weeks 10-14, but Monica had a better record in 2 of the final 3 weeks (Week 16 was one of the two tied weeks, the other was Week 7 where we had identical 12-1 records) and seized victory with correctly picking the Redskins to defeat the Cowboys in the final game of the regular season.

She was a worthy adversary this season and will always be. I look forward to doing this again for the 2013 NFL Season.


WEEK 17:                       10-6
TOTAL:                    163-93-1

BREAKDOWN OF RECORD
MONICA
NOON
3PM
NIGHT
HOME
AWAY
TV
≤ 8 PTS
OT
WK 17
11-5
5-4
5-1
0-1
9-2
1-4
2-3
3-3
0-0
TOTAL
164-92-1
94-50
37-25-1
32-18
96-40-1
68-53
67-37
71-58-1
11-10-1


Now it's time for the best part of the season: the NFL Playoffs. The Road to New Orleans is reaching its conclusion. Which among the final twelve teams will hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy in the Louisiana Superdome on 3 February?

Here is your playoff bracket for the 2012 Season:



My prediction at the start of the season... I correctly predicted all the division winners in the AFC, the NFC North, and NFC West. The other picks.... what was I on....?!

"Oh well, when you are right 52% of the time, you are wrong 48% of the time."

I am revising my prediction for the playoffs and the Super Bowl because I can.

Though my original prediction was Green Bay over Houston, I don't think that is going to be the Super Bowl. While Green Bay has the reigning NFL MVP in quarterback Aaron Rodgers, they can't run the ball. They have the 20th ranked rushing offense in the NFL. I remember when they played the Giants in late November and their defensive unit was hounding Rodgers all night long. With a win against the Vikings on Saturday, the Packers are slated to play the 49ers in San Francisco. The 49ers defeated the Packers in Green Bay back in Week 1.

Which means this play comes into factor....


Had the officials reversed the call and ruled (correctly) that the Packers intercepted that pass, Green Bay would hosting a home playoff game next weekend and the 49ers would be playing the Vikings. Moot point now. Can't do anything about it now, move on.

Speaking of the Seahawks, you have to be impressed with the performance of rookie quarterback Russell Wilson. Drafted in the third round, Wilson won the starting job in the pre-season over Matt Flynn who was signed over from Green Bay in the off-season. Seattle was 6-5 after a road loss against the Dolphins. They haven't lost a game since. Seattle is entering the playoffs with a five game winning streak including two games where they scored 50 or more points and one where they decimated the 49ers on Sunday Night Football in Week 16.


The other NFC with a rookie quarterback starting on opening day is the Washington Redskins. Despite the partisan politics creating gridlock between Democrats and Republicans, one thing that both sides can perhaps agree on is the performance of 2011 Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III or as the cool kids call him is RGIII. Washington was 3-6 and it appeared that they were headed towards another forgetful season. In a press conference Coach Mike Shanahan appeared to have quit on this team and was ready to start evaluating talent to determine who was going to be on the team in 2013.

Since then the Redskins have streaked their way to 7 wins and their first NFC East Title since 1999. I was a sophomore at Birdville High when the Redskins last won the NFC East. Time flies by, doesn't it.

RGIII won 6 of those 7 games. Two of them includes both nationally televised games against Dallas. One includes a win against regional rival Baltimore where Griffin injured his knee late in the game and rookie backup quarterback Kirk Cousins threw a touchdown and the game tying two-point conversion where the Redskins won with a field goal in overtime. Cousins was the started the next week against lowly Cleveland as they continued their winning ways.

While RGIII is impressing people, his running back deserves some of the credit. Drafted in the 6th round out of Florida Atlantic, Alfred Morris rushed for 1,613 yards and 13 TDs which was second in their respective categories. The only running back to rush for more yards in 2012 was Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings, and the only running back to score more rushing touchdowns was Houston's Arian Foster. That's some pretty impressive company.

The other teams playing in Wild Card Weekend at the Bengals, Texans, Colts, and Ravens. Cincinnati did something that hasn't happened since the 1980s: they made the playoffs in consecutive seasons. The Texans also made the playoffs in consecutive seasons also repeating as AFC South champions. Houston concerns me because they lost 3 of their final 4 games and in the process dropped from the #1 seed to the #3 seed. Even though Houston beat the Broncos in Denver and beat the Ravens in Houston, they also got blown out in nationally televised night games against the Packers at home and the Patriots up in Foxboro last month. If Houston is to reach the Super Bowl, it is going to be a tough task. They're probably going to have to win two road games in some very intimidating environments, New England in January and possibly Denver for the AFC Title Game.

The Ravens and Colts each have emotional stories. Indianapolis basically was starting from scratch after the disastrous season last year and drafted Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck with the first overall pick in the draft. During the season it was revealed that head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia and had to undergo chemotherapy. Pagano took an indefinite leave of absence for treatment and offensive coordinator Bruce Arians was elevated to interim head coach. The Colts were playing inspired football and it resulted in their first playoff appearance since 2010.

Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis recently announced that he will retire from the NFL once the playoffs end. Ray Lewis has been the emotional and passionate leader of this team since its inception in 1996. It remains to be seen if this will trigger a Baltimore run to New Orleans.

The top seeds in the playoffs are the Broncos and Patriots in the AFC and the Falcons and 49ers in the NFC. The Broncos and Patriots each have experienced quarterbacks in Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. The Falcons are a quite NFC #1 seed. To me the 49ers are a complete team with their defense and running game. Since being named the quarterback against the Bears in November, Colin Kaepernick has a 5-2 as starter.

Anyways, let's get down to business...


WILD CARD
Bengals at Texans
Vikings at Packers
Colts at Ravens
Seahawks at Redskins


DIVISIONAL
Ravens at Broncos
Packers at 49ers
Seahawks at Falcons
Texans at Patriots


CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY
Seahawks at 49ers
Patriots at Broncos


For the Super Bowl, I think it will be the Broncos and 49ers. The AFC has a better crop of quarterbacks than the NFC. Combined playoff record among AFC playoff QBs is 30-17 compared to 4-5 in the NFC. In those 30 wins for the AFC, Peyton Manning (9-10, 1-1 Super Bowls, 1 Super Bowl MVP) and Tom Brady (16-6, 3-2 Super Bowls, 2 Super Bowl MVPs) account for 25 wins. Aaron Rodgers accounts for all of the NFC's wins. Yeah, Atlanta is the #1 seed, but the Falcons haven't won a playoff game since the 2004 season and Matt Ryan has an 0-3 playoff record as the Falcons starter. Seriously, can you see the Falcons getting past the 49ers if those two were to meet in the NFC Championship Game?

Denver is a different team than what we saw at the start of the season. A Denver-Houston AFC Title Game would be good, but I think we are headed towards another Brady-Manning matchup in the post-season. Also, Denver is 13-3 all-time in the playoffs. Their only home playoff losses: Steelers in 1984, Jaguars 1996, and Steelers in 2005. Denver losing at home in the playoffs is a rarity. Remember the Broncos won a playoff game last year with TIM FREAKIN' TEBOW at quarterback. How far do they go with a Peyton Manning?

I think it will be all the way to a Super Bowl Title.

SUPER BOWL XLVII, New Orleans
Broncos over 49ers

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