TEXAS 2012 PRIMARY: DEMOCRATIC

The Texas Primary Election finally took place on 6 March 24 April 30 October never 29 May.

Predictions?

PRESIDENT: Obama

Yeah, 2 out of 5 Democratic Primary voters in West Virginia cast their ballots for a Texas prisoner, low numbers in Arkansas and Kentucky, and pro-life activist picked up one delegate in Oklahoma, but are those states going to go for Obama in 2012? Doubt it.

The Obama Campaign is using the Primary Season as tune up for when it counts: November.

And do I really need to explain it further? Incumbent Presidents typically do not face serious primary challenges. None since I became eligible to vote in 2001. The only one in my lifetime was Pat Buchanan’s presidency run against George H.W. Bush in 1992, but it never got further than the first primary and caucus states.

Since 1960, there have been three well known primary party challenges of an incumbent President: LBJ in 1968, but he recognized the political consequences Vietnam had on his Presidency and the resulting split between pro-war and the growing anti-war faction in the party that running for President that year might doom the party to defeat that year.

1976 was Reagan’s first serious run at the Presidency to where he took the fight to the convention. He (wrongly) accused President Gerald Ford of being soft on National Security especially when it came to the Panama Canal and (falsely) claimed there was a conspiracy between the Soviet Union and Central America to establish a stronger communist foothold in the Western Hemisphere. He would repeat that mantra again in the 1980 Presidential Campaign against Carter.

1980: Ted Kennedy’s run at the Presidency against the incumbent Jimmy Carter.

In those four examples, the incumbent is 0-3. Again, LBJ declined to run for re-election after a poor showing in the early primary states and declining popularity due to Vietnam. It serves the party no purpose in running a primary campaign against an incumbent president.

US SENATE

This has turned into an interesting race that almost no one is talking about in state and national politics primarily because the Texas Republican Primary for US Senate has dominated the conversation. It is a four-person race, but there are two candidates that are capable of winning this race.

Paul Sadler, a former State Representative from the Houston area, emerged as the party favorite after Ricardo Sanchez dropped out of the race in December 2011 to tend to personal matters. Dallas businessman Sean Hubbard has emerged as the grassroots challenger.

Sadler has the endorsements of the Houston Chronicle, Dallas Morning News, Austin Chronicle, Austin American-Statesmen, and Texas AFL-CIO. Each source cites Sadler’s experience in public office as a leader for Texas Education Reform in the 1990s, his East Texas common sense populism, and the ability to raise the money needed to fund a campaign.

Hubbard on the other hand has gone on a barnstorming campaign across Texas. I see his campaign status updates on facebook as he has traveled across Texas. Last weekend he was in Sherman-Denison area; this last week he was down in the Rio Grande Valley to get support and last Thursday he was at the Mid Cities Democrats for a speaking engagement. Endorsement wise, Mr. Hubbard has the backing of several Democratic organizations. Seven Stonewall Democratic chapters (Dallas, Houston Area, Rio Grande Valley, Denton, Galveston, San Antonio, El Paso Young Stonewall) have endorsed him because of being one of the first US Senate candidates to back Marriage Equality. Bexar County Young Democrats, Texas Tech Student Democrats, Democracy for Houston, the Dallas Chapter of the Texas Coalition of Black Democrats are among the other groups endorsing him. The big name in the endorsement list is Barbara Ann Radnofsky who ran for Texas Attorney General in 2010.

True, Hubbard is 31… Yeah, I’m three years younger than him. I also note that a lot of his political experience is in the activism field. Guess what… me too. I do the insider stuff along with the activism component. You need those who are passionate about the issues and I think in some ways we are lacking that as a party in this state.

Though there is one endorsement that sums up my reasoning for voting and supporting Mr. Hubbard in the Primary. The Burnt Orange Report stated that if this was about who can run in November then Sadler is the candidate. However (comma) when it comes to representing which direction our party needs to go at the state level and how we can energize our voters, Hubbard is the person.

My prediction for US Senate Democratic Primary is this: There is not a strong front runner in this four person race. Yeah, Paul Sadler is the front runner, but not a front runner like Bill White was two years ago during the Democratic Gubernatorial Primary. A poll released by the Texas Tribune earlier this week shows Sadler and Hubbard within four points of each other. Both these campaigns are desperately trying to get voters out to avoid a runoff, but with neither candidate within the magic number of 50% this race will continue into the summer months.

SELECTED US HOUSE RACES

Incumbents typically do well when faced with primary challenges as they have the network, money, and of course, the power of incumbency.

CD-30: Congresswoman Eddie Bernice Johnson is facing charges of nepotism in her handling of awarding scholarships to high school students, but I expect that she will win this evening en route to an easy victory in November 2012.

CD-33: The long drawn out redistricting battle resulted in the Metroplex gaining an additional congressional district. The district encompasses southeast Fort Worth, Forest Hill, Everman, a part of Arlington, Grand Prairie, South Irving, and west Dallas. It is expected to be a heavily Democratic district. And could possibly reopen the old rivalries of Fort Worth vs. Dallas.

As many as ELEVEN candidates have announced they are running in this primary. The top favorites in this race appear to be State Rep. Marc Veasey from District 95 based in Tarrant County, Dallas lawyer Domingo Garcia, and local dentist David Alameel.

Winning the endorsements of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram AND Dallas Morning News and of former Representative Martin Frost should be enough to put State Rep. Veasey into one of the top two slots for the July runoff.

Both Garcia and Alameel have put their own money into this campaign which is not a good sign. If one of these candidates makes the runoff, money is going to be a factor into who can emerge as victor.

Receiving the endorsements of the two largest papers in the Metroplex should give Veasey the nomination, but because of the large number of candidates involved, expect this one to be settled in July.

CD-35: Lloyd Doggett is the Rocky Balboa of Texas Redistricting efforts. Despite the best efforts of Tom Delay, Rick Perry, David Dewhurst, and other Texas Republicans, they can’t seem to draw him out of a Congressional District.

With the further Congressional Balkanization of Austin continuing, Doggett is now running in this newly created district that runs from Austin to San Antonio… along Interstate 35.

This primary will be difficult, but Doggett will emerge as the victor and should have no problem going back to DC in November.

SELECTED STATE LEGISLATIVE RACES

HD-90: This appears to have gotten personal. Lon Burnam, representative of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, faces a tough challenge in Fort Worth ISD member Carlos Vasquez. In the two debates I have attended, they have engaged in some very spirited discussions. At the Great Debate in Fort Worth, the topic of who voted for whom in the 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary came up. During a Democratic Club meeting in Tarrant County, the issue of who would be better for education came up.

Bringing up past instances will not do Vasquez any good. This is another instance of where an incumbent survives a tough primary challenge.